I don't get the opportunity to post regularly in the forum like previous years anymore (only 3rd post this season), but I had a few extra moments today and thought I’d share some thoughts on a total I like tonight beyond the 140 characters that another platform allows for (…and it shouldn't be too hard to find me over there).
For those that do remember my write ups, you’ll know that my handicapping is very statistical based and typically focuses on totals.
Play: Seton Hall / DePaul Over 142
(I locked this in about 2 hours ago and still like it at the current 143/143.5 number)
Multiple factors align tonight to present a situation that sets up for an Over play even more so than season statistics would indicate. Let’s start with DePaul’s tempo – they enter tonight as the fastest paced team in the Big East with an adjT of 68.4 (#41 in the country) on the season. Now admittedly, their pace has slowed since entering conference play to 64.6 poss / game, but it is still ranks in the upper third of the conference. And tonight should be another opportunity to get out and run as Seton Hall currently ranks 105th in adjusted tempo nationally.
Second, and probably even more importantly, are their defensive metrics (or lack thereof). They come into tonight as one of only two teams in the Big East (Creighton) that is allowing more than 1.00 ppp. On the season they have an adjD of 1.039 (#217); but that has increased to 1.093 when looking at conference-only games. It should be no surprise that their defense suffers when you consider that they can’t defend without fouling (#315 FT Rate); and if they don’t foul, the shot attempt they give up usually either goes in (#324 2P% allowed), or their opponent grabs an offensive rebound (#325 OR%).
Now let’s look at Seton Hall – and this is where things get interesting. For the season, they have an adjO of 1.098 (#39). Impressively, but even moreso when you consider the fact that they have played their entire conference schedule and the game vs Maine without the services of star freshman guard Isaiah Whitehead. In those 9 games, the Seton Hall offense became stagnant and was limited to less than 1 ppp four times. So what was Whitehead’s impact upon his return to the lineup in their last game vs Xavier? How about a season high 90 points (1.20 ppp), led by his 19/4/3 performance in only 23 minutes. XU coach was even quoted after the game saying, “Honestly, it looked like he never left.” And lastly, a raw OE comparison shows that SH is averaging 1.07 ppp with Whitehead in the lineup (1.11 ppp if you throw out the disaster vs Georgia); and only 1.05 ppp without him.
But not only will their offense get a boost from having Whitehead back tonight, their defense should be expected to underperform if their previous games away from the Prudential Center are any indication. On the season, the Pirate adjD is 0.963 (#72) --but quickly increases to 1.073 when considering conference-only games. Now take it one step further – SH has allowed 1.13, 0.92, 0.94, 1.17, 1.20, 1.18, 1.03 ppp on defense in their 7 true away games this season (average 1.07 ppp). In essence, Seton Hall’s road defense would rank in the bottom 20% of the country.
So tonight, we get to back an Over with two defenses involved that leave much to be desired; and a Seton Hall offense boosted by the return of its star freshman guard. KenPom predicts 69 possessions. And situationally looking at the statistics, I think it’s more than fair to expect to see 1.07+ ppp from each offense. Based on that logic, we’d be looking at game that should push the upper 140’s at a minimum tonight.
Good luck if you decide to make a play
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