NCAA First Round Plays (YTD 80-56 +21.30 units)

Regular season/Conference Tourneys YTD 80-56 (+21.30 unit)NCAA Tournament YTD 0-0 (+0.00 units)

My goal for this tournament is to get myself over 30 units for the year, so right around 10 units is what I am hoping to get.

A few early leans (nothing locked in yet):

Wisconsin -4.5: Every year it always seems like there is a trendy upset pick.  Last year, it was Utah State over Texas A&M.  This year it alread seems to me like it is Wisconsin losing.  As was the case last year between USU and TAMU, I expect the favorite to cover pretty easily. 

Marquette +1.5: This team is tested and Xavier's only really impressive win is over Temple.  I just don't think Xavier will be able to keep with the pace and Marquette will pull out the win.

Lville -9.5: I really don't see how or why this line is under 10, but I expect Lville will have no problems handling Morehead State.

Penn State +2: Right now it would appear I am against the A-10 with two leans going against A-10 schools, but I just think Penn State is the better team.  They looked fairly strong in the Big Ten tournament, and I just think they will carry that over to the first round of the NCAA tournament.

Michigan +1: This is more of a play against Tennessee as opposed to a play for Michigan.  I just haven't been impressed with Tennessee all year and I expect them to get knocked out in the first round.

I will start posting plays as I lock them in.

I like Gonzaga over St. John's. I know that isn't on your card but was wondering if you had a take on that game? With D.J. Kennedy out and the game being played out west I can see Gonzaga taking this one.

I like teams w 2 solid gaurds,,,Penn st  and Xavier in thier 1st round games...Louisvile looks like a bargin and the best thing that happened was the public witnessing the wisc 36-33 loss to penn st..

Wisc - 4.5  bargin LARGE

Penn st, louisville, Xavier

BOL

Dickie V has the Zags in the elite 8...

So what you are saying is maybe I shouldn't have them winning in the first round? 

First locked in play:

Wisconsin -4 -120 (2 unit)

I went ahead and locked this one in now as I really have no idea which direction to expect this line to move.  I also bought the hook, but I have a feeling I will be regretting that decision.  The fact of the matter is this is a team that was likely a shoe-in to be a 3 seed prior to the game against Penn State and was teetering on a 2 seed before they played Ohio State.  They have played poorly twice in a row, but I think Bo Ryan will right the ship and I won't be exceptionally surprised if they make a run at the final 4. 

Second locked in play:

Penn State +2.5 -110 (1 unit)

Temple has been playing shorthanded for the last three weeks with Michael Eric and Scootie Randall out.  Eric is still definitely out and Randall is questionable.  Meanwhile, Penn State has been playing well as of late having won 7 of their last 10 Big Ten conference games.  This is an accomplishment for any team given how strong the Big Ten has been this season.  I think that Penn State is playing well right now and with Temple's injuries I expect the Nittany Lions will have just enough to get the outright win.

chefmikeg-

Big enough to make a difference.  It really isn't just that lose though.  Having to travel to Colorado is big as well in my opinion.

Third locked in play:

Michigan State ML -125 (1 unit)

I didn't have this as an initial lean, but the more I look at it, the more I like it.  Izzo is one of the best coaches in college basketball and I haven't really been all that impressed with UCLA this year.  Add to the fact that they have to make a cross-country trip from California to Florida, and I just don't think they will have enough to get by the Spartans.

Summary of plays thus far:

Wisconsin -4 -120 (2 units)

Penn State +2.5 -110 (1 unit)

Michigan State ML -125 (1 unit)

I just realized that I am going heavy on the Big Ten.  Oh well.  It doesn't change anything, just something I noticed.

Adding:

#1 seeds in the final 4 o1.5 -145 (2 units)

When filling out my bracket I had Kansas and Ohio St in the final 4, so if I am correct, then I will win this bet.  Alternatively, I am hedging myself a bit as I have SDSU in the final 4, but if Irving comes back at close to full strength for Duke, then they could easily make it that far as well.

Regardless though, I feel like this one will get there one way or another.

Adding:

USC pk / o123.5 +107 (1 unit)

I am typically not a huge teaser fan, but this one sticks out to me.  First off as it relates to the side, USC has been playing well as of late.  After starting off the season 12-11, they have gone 7-3 in their last 10 Pac-10 games and appears to be peaking at the right time.  Meanwhile, VCU is one of two teams I think we have all heard the talking heads complain about in terms of not deserving to be in the tourney. 

As it relates to the total, VCU is capable of scoring at a decent clip and is not known as a strong defensive team.  Further, although USC is fairly strong defensively, I expect them to try and get out in front early in this one (much like Clemson did last night) and with that, I expect them to play at a slightly quicker pace than they have all year.  Given the total is as low as it is, they don't have to push it too much to get over this number.

Ultimately, I was going back and forth on whether to take USC-4 or do a 2-team 4 point teaser to try and get a little bit better odds.  I felt that it was worth trying to add a relatively low total to get this at +107 instead of -110.  We will see if this pays off.