NCAA FINAL FOUR .......................................2021

Big games on tap today..........................

Let's take a look at how the 4 remaining teams have played throughout the tournament in the key stats.

Good ole reliable FG% ........................weak offensive teams don't win NCAA Titles..................................

Each teams median Offensive  FG%..........................

Gonzaga 52.85 %

Baylor 44.8 %

UCLA 42.9 %

Houston 37.8 %

3 of the 4 teams weak offensive teams

Each teams median FG% Margin.........

Gonzaga  +15.15 %

Houston  +1.1 %

Baylor      +.45 %

UCLA      + (-.5%)

3 OF THE 4 TEAMS VERY WEAK, weak, weak, weak

Each teams median Rebounding Margin .............................

Houston +12

Gonzaga +9.5

Baylor -1

UCLA -4

There is only 1 team playing on a  championship level, which is quite rare for the final four to hve 3 teams this weak. When these oppurtunities arise we jump, Zags will almost certainly win the title with this group of weak teams.

Good ole reliable FG % tells the story.........

Houston is terrible offensively at 37.8 %, 3 of the 4 games they shot under 40% , brutal. Little to almost no shot to win the title, zipo.

Baylor is better at 44.8 % but still to weak to win the title, even if they play better today their median can only go to 45.5 % which won't get it done VS Zags and especially with their very small FG % Margin.

Baylor won the rebounding battle in just 1 of 4 games by 7 rebs,  while Houston pounded their opps winning by 14, 12,9, 12

The difference in this game will be rebounding which gives Houston a great shot to not only cover but  win SU. Houston should be in this game with a chance at the end and very much could pull the upset and move on to the final.

Zags to win the Title ....... -240 --- 4.8 units to win 2 units

Houston +5 --- 1.1 units

Houston ML +190 --- .5 to win .95 units

Interesting that Houston played what is likely the highest seeds ever while getting to the final 4.

In the first round you are locked into an opp based on seed but from the 2cd round on your opp depends on which teams move on.

In the 2cd round a 10 seed beat the 7, so H plays the 10 seed not the 7, which is not all that big a difference but in 3rd round H plays a 11 seed instead of the 3 seed which could of won and advanced then 4th round they played a 12 seed when a 1 seed could have won and advanced to that round.

Wow, that's crazy, has to be a record I'd quess.

I follow this pretty much every year and  I can tell you it does not matter, do not base your decision on taking Baylor with this info. If anything I like Houston more because of it.

You'll hear the media tell you so & so team is battle-tested while their opp is not, but over time there is nothing to that battle-tested stuff, another myth created by the media.

And remeber, the books know this same info and they know YOU KNOW THE INFO, they are not giving you a free meal with that info, it gets factored into the line and why you have value with Houston.

Public is 76 % on Baylor line and 79% Baylor ML

Public is 71% on Zags line and 68% Zags ML

Public is  5-3 ATS in last  8 games with no games over 70% ...... 2-2 ATS at the Elite 8. 

Highly, highly unlikely with both games being over 70%, if they remain over 70%  that the public wins both of those, interesting that they are coming in more on Baylor with all the high seeds Houston has played  then the Zags who have dominated thus far.

79% on Baylor ML ???

Like them both my friend and BOL.    It wouldn't surprise me to see Houston win and UCLA get a backdoor cover....but I can't touch UCLA given the way Gonzaga has played.  IMO, the best college basketball team I've seen in the last 2 decades.

Hey claw great info! If you don’t mind me asking what do you use or where do you get your betting #’s from? I know we really can’t totally trust any place but let’s say has worked for you as far as helping with capping. Thanks 

Vegas insiders, does seem to work in the right spots, not really the best spot here but does point in the same direction the other info points.

Saw this online....... the -14 appears to be the largest line in final four game  as far as the person could research and find, the 4 largest lines were -8.5 and above and the dog went 3-1 ATS.

tHERE WAS 1 LINE -14 IN A FINAL, INVOLVED KENTUCKY, they won but failed to cover.

I would Lean UCLA +14  

.... Seems to be many others saying the same about the Zags, people don't want to fade them, they'd pass first. 

Sometimes This tells us they have reached a peak when people are to afraid to fade them , might be time to.

Public now under 70% in both games on the favs. 73% on the ML on both fav. Baylor jump up to 84% on ML  SHORTLY after I posted the %'s.

Crazy since the public generally like to back the dogs and take the odds for bigger payouts, but here they must be so convinced both Favs win with over 70% on fav ML. 

i DID SEE A TOUT ON YOUTUBE SAY , this was the first time any team played all double digit seeds to make the final four, much as we thought it was a record of high seeds.

He also said his PR's had Houston the better team but then said because of the situation on how the tournament played out........ he spoke those magic words .................Baylor Is More Battle-Tested so he was picking Baylor................

Going to be interesting for sure ........................................

0-1 ATS lost 1.1 units

0-1 ML, lost .5 units

Baylor layed a major beatdown on Houston. Houston's pathetic offense was at work again shoting 38.2%, that makes 4 of their 5 games under 38.5% shooting, that's terrible.

Will learn a leeson there, bad offense don't win titles, might want to pass on any bad offenses in the final 4 as well.

I never lost confidence Zags would beat UCLA at any time during that game but my goodness they certainly could of lost. Tim taking that long 3 was terrible shot selection at the end of regulation with game tied. UCLA got the ball back and that was the time I had the least amount of confidence Zags would win, great defensive play by TIM to get the charge.

Zags were obviously in regression after winning those first 4 games big, I don't really have a regression formula for tourney but that was regression. Zags most likely overconfident and didn't match UCLA's energy.

That sets up tonights game perfectly. The look ahead line was -6 and now it's 4.5. 

Best read and thread! Well done, theclaw....!!!!

Zags Median FG % MARGIN .....................55.7% - 40.6% = 15.1%

Baylor ..................................................45.5% - 43.5% = 2%

When you see this big a difference the better teams wins by far most of the time.

Zags likely get the cover, they should win by 8 pts or more, I have them winning by 11 on one method but only 2 on another method.

I have the total on one method at 142, well under the number. Lets see how close it comes, have been off by just a few pts many times with this method. I do have another method but didn't get a chance to run it .

I think it is around 81-70, maybe 78-70. Zags win . STILL GOES UNDER at those scores

LEANS --- 1-0 

LEAN --- UNDER 159.5

LEAN --- Zags -4.5 over Baylor

PENDING FUTURES --- Zags to win Title -240 --- 4.8 units

Crazy, better odds now with Zags -200 on ML.

Something to keep in mind in the future, big dogs now 5-1 ATS, thing is does not come up very often so most will forget the next time it does.

From your mouth to God’s ears on this one, Claw. Good luck! 

Zags should come back and have a chance to win SU.

Not likely Baylor shoots as well ,2cd half the n 3s.

Zags -6 2cd half --- 1.1 units