Predicted Score #1 >82 - 69 Michigan .... first half Michigan UP by 6-8 pts/UNDER for the HALF and then they pour it on in the 2nd HALF with Reed in foul trouble and glued to the bench with a 3rd or 4th foul early in the 2nd half...
People have no idea how good Michigan's DEFENSE is and consider this...... case in point, in December, Michigan travelled across the country and destroyed a top defense in Gonzaga by 40 pts in their own territory when Gonzaga was running top like UCONN was early in the Non-Conference season....
Yesterday, BOTH Michigan and Arizona were ranked in the Top 5 ALL TIME IN THE HISTORY OF KENPOM stats.... and we saw what happened WITHOUT one of their top 2 players for long stretches of the game
. UCONN cannot roll their bench like Michigan at high power, strength and tempo but I expect Hurley to roll the dice with Karaban and the young potential difference maker in Braylin Mullins shooting 3 pt from everywhere but Michigan will be on this with their superior 3pt defence using length and speed on the perimeter and they know the big guy REED will be fed all day long but it will only keep them close in the first 10 min of the half like Zona tried on them with Krivas.
Michigan forced one of the TOP 5 teams all-time to force up shots in desperation at times and look nervous holding the ball AT ANY TIME....Cadeaux picked off so many held balls and Lendeborg is just as fast but was missing most of the game.
Michigan destroyed the team with the #2 Strength of schedule, #7 defense against FG and #40 defense against 3 pt and would not give a sniff of an OFFENSIVE rebound to the #3 OFF rebound team in the land.....did I mention Arizona was #38 in the land for points scored, #14 for FG and #51 for 3pt
Now, UCONN and Hurley have to figure out a way to attack a highly motivated Michigan team searching to be considered the greatest NCAAB team of all time before they get broken up for the draft .....with a team that is #16 for SOS, #10 for overall defense points scored BUT on offense, they pale for FG at #38, 3pt @ #86 and way over #100 for Offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding could be an issue for the size and hunger around the glass they have to face in Michigan in their own end....
Is my score prediction giving not enough credit to the UCONN defense? MAYBE and also Hurley's offensive sets are designed to get the best SHOT, not early shot so if they can execute and prevent turnovers, it will be tighter than most think it will...but that is a big IF!! UCONN has the age edge by 2 yrs average so, that could keep things close as well but the more things get tight for Michigan, the easier they find another gear in every half that they play EXCEPT the Duke game where they were not getting calls and Dusty admits in an interview.....were not sharing the ball and just looking for one and done early shots.
2nd score prediction > 77 - 68 Michigan
Either way, I see -7 cover and OVER
. Its been a joy to watch both teams, but Hurley is not better than Dusty when it comes to game preparation and tactical adjustment (they are on par) but I would give the nod to Hurley if facing a Zona team..... Michigan 6-9 players are as good or better than UCONN's 3rd-5th best players on the floor
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.