Jordan Miller (Miami) Most Outstanding Player +1900
The value on this is too good to pass up even if you are on the fence about Miami beating UCONN.
UCONN Matchup
This will obviously require Miami beating Uconn so we'll start there. Miami has consistently outperformed expectations all season long and I'm willing to bet that they do it one more game when it matters most versus a really good Uconn team. There's no denying that Uconn has looked like they are on another level in the tournament but the talent gap between Uconn & Miami isn't quite as wide as the spread would indicate Norchad Omier, Isaiah Wong, Nigel Pack, Wooga Poplar and Jordan Miller against Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins, Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban and Andre Jackson is a pretty fair fight in my opinion. Miami obviously has some holes defensively but their lineup is more than capable of scoring 80+ just like they did on two very goods defenses in Houston and Texas as well as Indiana.
If Miami scores 80+ this game will be close late and that's all you can ask for against a juggernaut like Uconn. Something also has to be said for a team that really hasn't been tested late when all the marbles are on the line. I'm sure Miami would've rather not had their backs against the wall down multiple possessions with less than 3 minutes to play against Drake in the first round but I do really think moments like that create championship caliber teams. Uconn hasn't really been in that position yet this tournament because of how easily they've put teams away. If they can't put Miami away early, I like my chances with coach Larranaga and this battle tested Miami squad late.
Isaiah Wong & Nigel Pack
Another reason why i like this bet is because Jordan Miller doesn't rely on his jump shot to win games. He can consistently get to the basket and has always been the player Miami can go to during a cold stretch because of his ability to get to the basket. In the Texas game Miller was 7 for 7 from the field and 13 of 13 from the free throw line. I like the idea of not relying on streaky shooters like Isaiah Wong or Nigel Pack for a bet like this. If one of these guys gets hot this future is in trouble but I'm willing to bet that Miller has a more consistent two game stretch than these two especially for +1900. Isaiah Wong also seems to kinda go missing during some stretches of the game. He doesn't have the killer instinct that you would expect an NBA level scorer to have which works in our favor here.
Potential Championship Matchup
The true value in this bet lies in a potential championship match up versus either San Diego or FAU. I don't see either of those teams beating Miami in the final simply because they lack the offensive firepower. Miller would admittedly have a tough time against the interior defense of Ledee and Mensah but he'll be able to take those guys off the dribble if Miami employs their spaced spread attack. I think even if Miami struggles from three pt range like everyone seems to do versus San Diego State they can still figure out a way to win. They came back against Texas without hitting a single three in the second half. That was the most impressive part of the win to me.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, I don't see enough value on Miami to win it all at the current odds and can't really make a case for any team at their current price. I do think +1900 is worth a shot when you factor in the fact that Miami probably won't beat Uconn or win the title if Jordan Miller doesn't play well. Coach Larranaga has said on record multiple times that Jordan Miller is the most underrated player in the country.
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