Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 34-23, +38.80
February Leans: 36-33
Probably couldn’t set this total high enough for me to avoid this spot. If you’ve watched Depaul or St. John’s at all this year, you’ve probably seen a bit of up and down more often than not, and tonight should present one of those opportunities and there is some value in a total that is lower than the first meeting for some reason. In that first meeting, the game hit 78 possessions and here’s why I think we get that same amount, if not more, tonight. In the first meeting, both teams shot horrendous in the first half, in a half that combined for only 61 points. Each team went more than 4 minutes without a single point in that 1H. So, what changed? Toward the end of the 1H, St. John’s felt they needed to pick up the pressure and go into the full court press. That ultimately ended up being the difference, as they forced a total of 18 turnovers and scored 25 points off of those turnovers. To put it into perspective, the last 24 minutes of the game, St. John’s was able to score 68 points. Granted, they shot a good percentage in the 2H, but a ton of those shots were layups. So, this isn't really a case where each team shot over their head en route to 107 second half points. When Depaul didn’t turn the ball over, they scored as well, putting up 50 themselves over the course of that time. So, we go into tonight. Depaul’s not going to change a thing. Purnell said it himself on Saturday prior to the Louisville tip. When he doesn’t face teams with overwhelming size in the paint, his offense can work at its best using the inside/out and hectic style of play defensively. And on the other side of things, St. John’s is just too young to do anything different. There is no reason they don’t come out and press here in this game, also noting they’re coming off a couple weeks of either good defenses that force into a snail’s pace. Since the Depaul victory, they’ve tried the press a few times when they’ve gotten behind, Syracuse lit them up, and so did Seton Hall. This should be another spot where it’s most certainly used. Cause for concern? Sure, there is one. Depaul’s coming off an OT loss, a game that they probably could have won had a few bounces gone there way, but ultimately poor half-court defense did them in when they got away from the press. Normally, I’d shy away from this spot, but not with Depaul. Purnell has been switching lineups, forcing guys to show up and make the most of their opportunities, and off a loss, this should be another spot he presses on that. Match-up wise, in the half court, Depaul’s going to struggle to score against a zone but ultimately, I’m not sure it matters when the majority of the game will be played in the up-and-down pace with both teams pressing. And if Depaul does get it into the half-court, then Depaul’s inside/out will look better than what it does against most Big East teams that present a challenge with their size. Granted, I’m taking a shot on a guess here that both teams do what they should do. The only time these teams have slowed down in recent match-ups is if the game go out of hand. Assuming this game is close, this one should be fast. And if it’s not, well, I should get more pressing situations which leads to easy buckets. Should be a game of runs, and when one team isn’t scoring, the other one will almost certainly be scoring. I could be wrong. But, I see the value. I’m getting a total lower than the first meeting, and this game should get more free throws, an extra 16 minutes of layup drills, and an ultra fast up and down. Tough for me to pass this one up.
5* Depaul/St. John's Over 151.5
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