Pulled this out of last years thread
|
Posted: 2/27/2009 11:24:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by wannawinalot:
HEY DISCO,
Did you see my earlier post about the conference scrubs and not betting them or making them smaller plays?? You seem to be narrowing down the games beautifully with your betting trend system you are using.. I just think there are certain teams that could be left off or smaller wagers.. IE detroit from last night.. I know the bookmakers are supposed to adjust to teams that are not covering, but the lower level teams are very unpredictible.. Without that team in there last night we would of been 5-1, although I did play N.Arz and lost with them.. Just a thought.. Keep up the good work..
you are 100% right...the problem is it's much harder to get a good read on the games with limited action meaning if you play them it's more or less based on the first half of the system (basically just bob's system)...Which is fine, it would just be nice if we could get a better read on those games |
addit from last year
| WIN / LOSS STREAKS AND BETTING TRENDS |
another note from last seasons play
All I'm doing is looking at the betting market and attempting to determine whether or not the oddsmakers ACCTUALLY do want to even out these guys ATS records...
for example...
goalinebob's system states that if Team A is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games Vegas will stack the line in their favour to get them a cover...my added criteria is that you have to look at the action Team A is getting...if team A is still getting bet at a 75% rate, why would Vegas even that out...so if Team A is 0-6 ATS yet still getting 75% the play would actually be their opponent (or a no play) **this is my additional criteria**
So if Team Z is 0-6 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% - team Z could be considered a play
conversly, if team X is 3-0 ATS and getting 75% their opponent should be considered a potential play...if team X is 3-0 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% I would say team X is worth a look (which is opposite what Bob's play would be) (I say try to ride the wave 
)
Does that make sense? 
another note from last seasons play
All I'm doing is looking at the betting market and attempting to determine whether or not the oddsmakers ACCTUALLY do want to even out these guys ATS records...
for example...
goalinebob's system states that if Team A is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games Vegas will stack the line in their favour to get them a cover...my added criteria is that you have to look at the action Team A is getting...if team A is still getting bet at a 75% rate, why would Vegas even that out...so if Team A is 0-6 ATS yet still getting 75% the play would actually be their opponent (or a no play) **this is my additional criteria**
So if Team Z is 0-6 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% - team Z could be considered a play
conversly, if team X is 3-0 ATS and getting 75% their opponent should be considered a potential play...if team X is 3-0 ATS but their opponent is getting 75% I would say team X is worth a look (which is opposite what Bob's play would be) (I say try to ride the wave )
Does that make sense?
The problem with that mindset is that very few teams end up 50% for the year ATS. It isn't that vegas is compensating for a team that has won or lost the last three against the spread--it is because there is a correlation b/w teams winning or losing outright and winning or losing ATS. So a team that is playing well will have a higher spread or will be getting less points as a dog and conversely, a team that is not playing well will have a lower spread and will be getting more points. I realize you are doing a form of betting against streaks, but to expect that "things will even out" doesn't play into the concept in college basketball that streaks are more likely to continue rather than end. 
2009 records to date
| Team | ATS | W/L | O/U | |
| 1 | Ohio St. | 1-0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Syracuse | 1-0-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Florida International | 1-0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Murray St. | 1-0-0 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| 5 | Albany | 0-1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 6 | North Carolina | 0-1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 7 | California | 0-1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 8 | Alcorn St. | 0-1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
system needs 3 wins or 3 loss,,to be a play and then betting percentages come into play
HAPPY VETRANS DAY BROTHERS,,,US Navy,,,,,
i know this is Ncaa but wanted to post it anyway,,,,,,,,games t nite as system sees it,,nba,,,,10/11/09
As said i have alot of work to do b4 i play these system plays,,$$$$$$,,but i have to start somewhere so here goes
Plays t nite
Boston
76's
denver
N Orlean
NY
MINN
Memph
if a team is listed to cover,,then i need to see it win regardless of opposition,,,, system has on it,,,,,this is gonna be fun,,,, I HOPE 
,,note these are not System plays yet as not enuff games played yet
Established in 1995,
Hot Forum Topics
