Posted:
#1
Thought I'd post a few thoughts that have helped me be a consistent winner over the last five years.
1. Have a Philosophy
Ask yourself a few questions: Am I betting cbb for fun or profit? Do I expect to lose my money or double it? Am I in this for the short-term (till I lose my money or win a certain amount) or long-term (going to be betting all season - this also speaks to the amount of units you should bet). *Special note: if you are in this for fun or the short-term (which is perfectly fine) this thread and all my threads won't be for you. My philosophies are for people who do this for profit and who are in for the long haul.
My personal philosophy (in cbb wagering and in life) is to see what "everyone" is doing and do the opposite. The truth is that 90-95% of the posters on this forum will lose their money very quickly and/or reload half a dozen or more times during the season. Success (and failures) leaves clues. The losing players do the following things:
a. they bet only on games they can watch and "sweat" through
b. they bet only televised and/or on ranked teams
c. they bet at the last second before tipoff usually getting the worst possible line
d. they focus on THE ENTIRE CARD by spending one to two minutes on fifty or more games
e. they MUST bet every single day and almost always bet "favorites" (or overs)
f. they are inconsistent with how much they bet each game
g. they bet less money (or less often) when they are winning and bet much more money (and more often) when they are losing
h. they easily go "on tilt" (because they always watch the games they bet on and feel like every loss is a bad beat)
i. they don't have the desire to research games/teams on their own so they search the forums for ANY opinion on ANY game and follow blindly
j. they stupidly evaluate the quality of a bet based solely on the final score of the game
My philosophy:
1. I never watch my bets: I watch tons of college basketball but always games that I have no money on so that I can objectively evaluate both teams and use that information later on in the season. Please understand that it is IMPOSSIBLE to objectively evaluate a wager (or team) when you have money on the game, you will always have bias towards your bet.
2. I rarely bet on ranked teams or games that are nationally televised. The main reason being is that those lines are SIGNIFICANTLY tighter and information about injuries, strategies, and other "angles" are much more readily available
3. I try to always bet as early as possible (sometimes the night before or other times the morning of) in an attempt to get the best line. If I am going to bet on a team that I think won't be "a public play"(aka an ugly underdog), I'll wait till the last second in a attempt to get the best line.
4. I focus my energy on one (or two at the most) conferences and only a handful of teams. I'd rather spend 30 minutes a piece studying 6 teams than spend 6 minutes a piece studying 30 teams.
5. I bet only when I see "value" so some days I won't bet, others I'll only have one play or others I'll have as many plays as I feel are worth it
6. I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll than most "quality winning players" on this site. As I've explained before, I do this so that I continue to narrow down my plays to one I really feel strongly about as even one loss "hurts" my bankroll. In terms of easy math, lets say that I start with a bankroll of 5000 dollars. I'll make each of my plays 5% of that bankroll (250 dollars) and while that doesn't sound like a lot by itself, a losing streak of four games already drops my bankroll 20%. Also realize that if I make a bet that is 2-units, 10% of my bankroll is on the line. It should also be noted that 1-unit is 5% of my CURRENT bankroll, meaning that if I win four straight bets, my bankroll in the above example would now be 6000 so my NEW unit is now 300. If I am enduring a losing streak, then my unit will be less. This makes sense that when you are on a roll and seeing things clearly, you bet slightly more and when you are in a funk, you bet less.
7. I research all my own games using the same "filters" each time (aka kenpom, google news, twitter/facebook, blueribbon, etc.). Choose your resources and "angles" wisely and don't fall into the trap of using EVERY resource as they will often only confuse and contradict each other. I should also mention here that I have a few trusted "resources" (read: gamehunter, jfen, riccio, harvey and a few others) that if they tell me they are on a play, I will research that game as well to see if I want to join in or not. These above posters were not chosen randomly but they are guys that use the same style of "handicapping" and "analysis" that I use (stats/math/sabermetric-based) and they study teams and games that I don't.
8. When a game I bet on is over - I check the final score to see if I won or lost for like 2-seconds and then I forget it and just dive into the stats of the game and see if my analysis was right or wrong. Don't be results-oriented, be process-oriented. I would MUCH RATHER lose a bet by 30 points than by 1 point. Most of the numbnuts on this site place the value of a bet on how close it was to winning, don't be an idiot like them. If I lose a game by 30, it becomes quite clear where my analysis went wrong and I can look at those angles and decide if they need to be adjusted or thrown out all together. If its a "bad beat" or very close loss, I will try to talk myself into how right I was and how I was just "unlucky" and nothing can be more dangerous to a bankroll than always convincing yourself that you were "on the right side." The more close beats you endure, they tougher it is to stay away from "tilt" or to just go crazy with the bankroll. If I'm going to lose, I hope its by DD each and every time.
EARLY-SEASON BETTING PHILOSOPHY
1. If there is a "good" time to bet HUGE favorites, its at the very beginning of the year and only when you can grab the line as soon as it comes out as it will most likely climb. I might bet 10 games with a spread of 15+ in the first two weeks of the season and I might not bet even one the rest of the year. This is the time where big favorites have value (in certain spots of course).
2. DO YOUR HOMEWORK and follow your research. If you study the WAC conference and your convinced San Jose St is even worse than they are projected to be (and that is bad), bet against them CONSISTENTLY over their first five to ten games until the lines makers adjust. My biggest mistake last year was not following my gut about The Citadel last season. I believed them to be one of the worst D1 college basketball teams in the country and made a 2-unit bet against them on the first game of the year against VMI. Somehow, those suckies shot 45/52/78 and scored 100 points (and somehow still lost but covered). I questioned my analysis and stayed away from that team for the rest of the month. Of course, The Citadel did suck and ended up 2-6 ATS in their next eight and it turns out I was right and all I had to show for it was -2 units.
Betting the beginning of a new college basketball season is simple: do your homework and follow the research and don't be discouraged by one negative result, be process-oriented and not results-oriented.
Good luck this season and please remember that we are all in this together
1. Have a Philosophy
Ask yourself a few questions: Am I betting cbb for fun or profit? Do I expect to lose my money or double it? Am I in this for the short-term (till I lose my money or win a certain amount) or long-term (going to be betting all season - this also speaks to the amount of units you should bet). *Special note: if you are in this for fun or the short-term (which is perfectly fine) this thread and all my threads won't be for you. My philosophies are for people who do this for profit and who are in for the long haul.
My personal philosophy (in cbb wagering and in life) is to see what "everyone" is doing and do the opposite. The truth is that 90-95% of the posters on this forum will lose their money very quickly and/or reload half a dozen or more times during the season. Success (and failures) leaves clues. The losing players do the following things:
a. they bet only on games they can watch and "sweat" through
b. they bet only televised and/or on ranked teams
c. they bet at the last second before tipoff usually getting the worst possible line
d. they focus on THE ENTIRE CARD by spending one to two minutes on fifty or more games
e. they MUST bet every single day and almost always bet "favorites" (or overs)
f. they are inconsistent with how much they bet each game
g. they bet less money (or less often) when they are winning and bet much more money (and more often) when they are losing
h. they easily go "on tilt" (because they always watch the games they bet on and feel like every loss is a bad beat)
i. they don't have the desire to research games/teams on their own so they search the forums for ANY opinion on ANY game and follow blindly
j. they stupidly evaluate the quality of a bet based solely on the final score of the game
My philosophy:
1. I never watch my bets: I watch tons of college basketball but always games that I have no money on so that I can objectively evaluate both teams and use that information later on in the season. Please understand that it is IMPOSSIBLE to objectively evaluate a wager (or team) when you have money on the game, you will always have bias towards your bet.
2. I rarely bet on ranked teams or games that are nationally televised. The main reason being is that those lines are SIGNIFICANTLY tighter and information about injuries, strategies, and other "angles" are much more readily available
3. I try to always bet as early as possible (sometimes the night before or other times the morning of) in an attempt to get the best line. If I am going to bet on a team that I think won't be "a public play"(aka an ugly underdog), I'll wait till the last second in a attempt to get the best line.
4. I focus my energy on one (or two at the most) conferences and only a handful of teams. I'd rather spend 30 minutes a piece studying 6 teams than spend 6 minutes a piece studying 30 teams.
5. I bet only when I see "value" so some days I won't bet, others I'll only have one play or others I'll have as many plays as I feel are worth it
6. I bet a higher percentage of my bankroll than most "quality winning players" on this site. As I've explained before, I do this so that I continue to narrow down my plays to one I really feel strongly about as even one loss "hurts" my bankroll. In terms of easy math, lets say that I start with a bankroll of 5000 dollars. I'll make each of my plays 5% of that bankroll (250 dollars) and while that doesn't sound like a lot by itself, a losing streak of four games already drops my bankroll 20%. Also realize that if I make a bet that is 2-units, 10% of my bankroll is on the line. It should also be noted that 1-unit is 5% of my CURRENT bankroll, meaning that if I win four straight bets, my bankroll in the above example would now be 6000 so my NEW unit is now 300. If I am enduring a losing streak, then my unit will be less. This makes sense that when you are on a roll and seeing things clearly, you bet slightly more and when you are in a funk, you bet less.
7. I research all my own games using the same "filters" each time (aka kenpom, google news, twitter/facebook, blueribbon, etc.). Choose your resources and "angles" wisely and don't fall into the trap of using EVERY resource as they will often only confuse and contradict each other. I should also mention here that I have a few trusted "resources" (read: gamehunter, jfen, riccio, harvey and a few others) that if they tell me they are on a play, I will research that game as well to see if I want to join in or not. These above posters were not chosen randomly but they are guys that use the same style of "handicapping" and "analysis" that I use (stats/math/sabermetric-based) and they study teams and games that I don't.
8. When a game I bet on is over - I check the final score to see if I won or lost for like 2-seconds and then I forget it and just dive into the stats of the game and see if my analysis was right or wrong. Don't be results-oriented, be process-oriented. I would MUCH RATHER lose a bet by 30 points than by 1 point. Most of the numbnuts on this site place the value of a bet on how close it was to winning, don't be an idiot like them. If I lose a game by 30, it becomes quite clear where my analysis went wrong and I can look at those angles and decide if they need to be adjusted or thrown out all together. If its a "bad beat" or very close loss, I will try to talk myself into how right I was and how I was just "unlucky" and nothing can be more dangerous to a bankroll than always convincing yourself that you were "on the right side." The more close beats you endure, they tougher it is to stay away from "tilt" or to just go crazy with the bankroll. If I'm going to lose, I hope its by DD each and every time.
EARLY-SEASON BETTING PHILOSOPHY
1. If there is a "good" time to bet HUGE favorites, its at the very beginning of the year and only when you can grab the line as soon as it comes out as it will most likely climb. I might bet 10 games with a spread of 15+ in the first two weeks of the season and I might not bet even one the rest of the year. This is the time where big favorites have value (in certain spots of course).
2. DO YOUR HOMEWORK and follow your research. If you study the WAC conference and your convinced San Jose St is even worse than they are projected to be (and that is bad), bet against them CONSISTENTLY over their first five to ten games until the lines makers adjust. My biggest mistake last year was not following my gut about The Citadel last season. I believed them to be one of the worst D1 college basketball teams in the country and made a 2-unit bet against them on the first game of the year against VMI. Somehow, those suckies shot 45/52/78 and scored 100 points (and somehow still lost but covered). I questioned my analysis and stayed away from that team for the rest of the month. Of course, The Citadel did suck and ended up 2-6 ATS in their next eight and it turns out I was right and all I had to show for it was -2 units.
Betting the beginning of a new college basketball season is simple: do your homework and follow the research and don't be discouraged by one negative result, be process-oriented and not results-oriented.
Good luck this season and please remember that we are all in this together
0
.....a lot of opportunities on the smaller conferences that are overlooked
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