Guidance - what do you look for?

Biggs, that is one thing that I have been able to get a handle on.  I use to way over play.  I have learned to reduce my bets to absolutely no more than 5, but try to stay within 1-3.  My largest play, generally is $100.  One time I bet $200, took Kentucky and gave up the points to Texas and Texas covered.  My bets are generally $50 or $100.  Right now I am $759 in the hole for the week and have tonight and Thursday.  I am hoping to get that amount reduce at the very least, by half, start fresh this weekend and do 1 game a day.  I will glace over the card for Wed 1/14 and post games that stand out to me and post back in a bit.  It's a new day!

Do you look at overall rebounding edge or mainly offensive rebound edge which gives you more shots to score ? Do you prefer stats from Kenpom or teamrankings ?? 

ATS .. correct ??? 

Good question!  I don't look at overall, because a majority of the stats don't tell the real story.  Example, last night, Louisville had a 29 point lead in the 2nd half.  About the last 10 minutes of the game was played by scrubs off the bench.  One guy who hadn't played a lick all year got in, Matz Stockman.  What I do try to do is, especially in conference play, go and look to see what each team did against similiar opponents.  Example last night, Butler at Seton Hall a team they have both played is Xavier.  Seton Hall lost at Xavier by 9, Butler, if I remember right, beat them by 11.  The spread was -2, was hoping the home court advantage would be enough to cover a 2 point game, but it wasn't.  

As far as stats, I try to look to see who gets a majority of the minutes, look at their stats, then take into consideration the number of minutes played by each player, how deep into the bench each coach goes and still get quality play.  

Notre Dame -4 @ Ga. Tech

Akron -4 home against Bowling green

Monmouth -3 home against St. Peters

Davidson at a pick @ UMass

Loyola Chicago -14.5 home against Drake.  One trend I try to do is pick a team that absolutely sucks and bet against that team every chance I get.  Drake is one of those teams with Grambling being the other.  But is -14.5 too much?  Loyola averages 66 ppg at home, but Drake on defense gives up 75 ppg OTR.  Drake only averages scoring 53 ppg OTR.  So, if it is closer to the scoring totals for both, Drake will cover.  But, if the numbers stay closer to what Drake averages both offense and giving up on defense, Loyola covers.  Suggestions here? 

Vanderbilt -2.5 home against Georgia

Wyoming -1.5 home against San Diego State

This line is confusing to me.  Looks like it opened at 3, dropped to 1.5.  Wyoming is 12-0 at home and ranked #7 in offense FG%.  S.D.St is 0-3 OTR and ranked 268th in FG%.  At home, Wyoming scores 67 ppg while holding opponents to 53 ppg.  S.D. St scores 51 ppg on the road while giving up 59 ppg on defense.  Why did the line drop to -1.5?  Something stinks here 

You go by the opening line not closing line , right ?? 

Line opens at - 3 and moves to -2 by tip .. you are still using the original opening line of - 3 for your ATS stats . 

I hear ya bro .. I know a bunch of better cappers use this but I like to go with how often a team fouls vs the team that draws a bunch of fouls and shoots FT well .. Which sites do you use the most to  breakdown your games ??

Sometimes I like to do a ML parlay with teams that are favored by a relatively large amount (7-10 pts). I'll usually throw 2 to 3 teams into the parlay. I've seen it many times where at least one of these teams loses and blows up my parlay. Rarely ever do all three teams win easily and cover.

So now, I'll take a look at the spreads and go through some of the teams I might want to throw into a ML parlay. I then look at each of those games and try to determine which dog is going to make me sweat out the parlay. I may not make a play on them, but sometimes just makes me feel more comfortable in playing the dog there.

I know this is psychological, but just my 2 cents. I believe a lot in the psychology of sports gambling.