Posted:
#26
Ps. Don't bet NBA til playoffs. Those players take off days
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Guidance - what do you look for?
Posted:
#32
Locked in
Seton Hall -2 (hoping the team that beat Villanova is the same team that shows up tonight
UConn -1 (this line has been flipping and flopping. UConn has Calhoun back, which is a plus)
Arkansas -3 (Tyndall is tinkering with the starting line up tonight, things you don't do once conference starts)
Alabama +4 (I see this game coming down to a 1 possession game, 66-64 type score, which I will be happy with either way)
Wake Forest +9 (Well, BestCapperSports picked them and that guy has been on fire lately. This game wasn't even on my radar, but got to roll with who is hot, right?)
BOL all
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by Cardoholic:
Locked in
Locked in
Seton Hall -2 (hoping the team that beat Villanova is the same team that shows up tonight
UConn -1 (this line has been flipping and flopping. UConn has Calhoun back, which is a plus)
Arkansas -3 (Tyndall is tinkering with the starting line up tonight, things you don't do once conference starts)
Alabama +4 (I see this game coming down to a 1 possession game, 66-64 type score, which I will be happy with either way)
Wake Forest +9 (Well, BestCapperSports picked them and that guy has been on fire lately. This game wasn't even on my radar, but got to roll with who is hot, right?)
BOL all
On the fringes of psychology here...but it is always good to reread your own text/type and find words which indicate doubt. For instance you are "hoping" the Seton Hall team thatbeat Nova shows up but you KNOW it won't.
GL to you tonight
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Posted:
#40
Some Great points by Rico Cortez and others. Many aspects. But I definitely love betting NCAAB. Suggestions:
1) Blue Ribbon is good, especially in 1st month of NCAAB, I purchase KenPom it is cheap and pays for itself. Great Information at Kenpom.
2) School Website - another good source.
3) Situations & motivations. Example: A team going on the Road After a home game where they shot way above average or 58% or Higher.
Ranked team a dog to an Unranked team.. usually at home. TAKE the unranked favorite. Hits 68.7%.
Motivation, Road weary teams.
4) Don't pay attention to useless trends and ESPN nonsense. Trends that involve prior years and old history can be BAD information.
5) Evaluate lines. I like the Ask "Why?" theory Rico Cortez.
Late line movement can be crazy accurate on Mid Major or Small school matchups. example: Tenn Martin moves from -2 to a -3 or 3.5 favorite over Austin peay. BET: Tenn. Martin. Go with the STEAM play.
Don't Play a majority of the Big School Top Matchups. The line is Sharp.
Good Quote:
"You must also consider subjective criteria concerning what the two teams are playing for, if anything. For instance, is it a rivalry game? Computers are great at crunching the numbers. But, I have yet to see a "Motivation Algorithm" that determines which team will play hardest."
I have bet College Basketball in Vegas for 16 years, when I walk into the book I will get 4 or 5 people asking my picks and why. This actually makes you a better capper. I like the covers forum.... it has SOME good, smart, & quality cappers.
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Posted:
#41
Wow!! All I've got to say is amazing!
So much great advice on here. Why can't every thread be so useful!?!
Almost every single person on here has great, great advice....so much so that I'm going to re-read this thread again.
I said that I'm going to offer you what I do and here is my two cents:
1. First and foremost are my leans.
2. Lines I like/don't like.
3. Articles on each team....team sites, Google, etc.
4. Quotes from coaches/players.
5. Stats- anything and everything.
6. Public- either way. Why is public $ going where it's going?
7. Covers picks. I don't know it all. I like seeing what other cappers are doing.
8. National TV. Teams do get up for national exposure.
9. Coaches.
10. Line movement. (please don't rely on this too heavy).
11. How both have played lately.
12. Ft%(especially down the stretch).
13. Negative/positive media.
14. Trends. (This can be over-rated).
15. Who wants to win more and why.
16. Try not to look at the line and play "linesman" myself and then compare to the actual line.
17. Third game-it's always hard to beat a team three times.
18. The 6 rule-try to stay between the pk to 6 lines.
19. Motivation.
20. Women's instinct-there are times I do want my wife's opinion.
Well, I've given you my top 20. Overall, listen to the people that are giving you advice on here. There are a lot of good things to look at in this thread. You have a wealth of knowledge given to you today. It's a gift....to all of us. Well done to all on here, and if I could shake every one of your hands I would. This thread is one of the best threads that I've read lately. Congrats cardoholic on starting one of the best threads in 2015.
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Posted:
#42
Tons of good info in this thread, personally ilike a few tools for capping...
The eye test..the more u see of a particular team the better feel you have for them.
Style of play..just like filling out a bracket in March i find dissecting styles of play is useful in capping games, things like tempo or whether a team that just bombs 3s vs a team that pounds it inside, etc. An example would be the uk vs Columbia tilt this season..uk was laying 24-26. Considering how slow of a tempo Columbia plays and the fact that uk doesn't always shoot it well from the perimeter it would make sense that Columbia covered easily. Of course hindsight is 20-20 lol.
Finally...don't over think things and trust your gut.
The eye test..the more u see of a particular team the better feel you have for them.
Style of play..just like filling out a bracket in March i find dissecting styles of play is useful in capping games, things like tempo or whether a team that just bombs 3s vs a team that pounds it inside, etc. An example would be the uk vs Columbia tilt this season..uk was laying 24-26. Considering how slow of a tempo Columbia plays and the fact that uk doesn't always shoot it well from the perimeter it would make sense that Columbia covered easily. Of course hindsight is 20-20 lol.
Finally...don't over think things and trust your gut.
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Posted:
#43
DBRULES- Tonight Rhode Island VCU game is a good example so far of just what your saying......I pointed out earlier in this thread Rhode Island very good defensively against 3 pointer and it is an ugly low scoring game so far VCU down 7. They are certainly capable of coming back. I totally agree with you about many things you posted......Football has more to do with emotion than bball I think. You cannot cap emotion....Ask Oregon Ohio State was just not going to be denied last night. Oregon was motivated but Ohio State just willed themselves to win that game....
Be wary of 3 and 6 point lines.....For some reason they dont cover a lot of times and actually lose outright. Most importantly do not let a lot of other people influence your plays.....If life is crazy take some time off of betting.....In the past I have lost my butt when I get ill and just lay around watching all games figuring I will make a killing.....If you are picking40% or lower keep picking the same way and bet against yourself til you start picking winners.
In CBB I hate watching a game I have money on....I love watching a football game I have money on....I invest in CBB like the stock market. The most profitable teams I have bet on I couldnt tell you the name of 1 player. Only that every time I looked at the ticker they were winning and covering spreads....VCU was that team many years ago for me before anyone knew anything about them......Moorehead State was another.....Look at all the information you can....If you have a solid reason and the line is right bet it and forget it....Like the stock market I used to just check in the next morning to see how I did. That way the outcome of the game didnt have any effect on me at home.....I HATE losing....I love winning but my biggest problem is I Hate Losing more than I love Winning I think...Meaning I would rather not guess blindly on anything. With research I pick my games and check on Biggs Aggie Capper and few others...AFTER I MAKE DECISION.... IF you have ever seen 2 For The Money that was me when I started. Playing picks of guys who claimed they knew something for way more money than I should have been playing. Small bets were 100 large bets 1k plus.....Now 100 play is a large play most of mine are only 25 in bball.....Surprisingly in a CBB season even at 25 a game with 1 or 2 games your risking 50 a day 1500 a month and over 5k a season.100 players 3 games a day play 9k a month and 36k + a season.....You better be right or have a lot of bankroll to do that....50X what you bet so it would take 50 losses to wipeout your roll is what experts say. Others say 2 -3 %
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To everyone who has or will comment on this post.
Seton hall down 8, Arkansas down 9
Posted:
#46
When I'm capping Games I look at injuries / SOS / Home/Road Scoring Margins. Some teams can't play on the road. They're kids and they have school.
This is not the NBA where teams are on the road for weeks at a time.
The last thing is consistency. Bad or good.
Note - If you know what you're doing you don't need to shop for lines. Always focus on the opening line and never line movement. Once you know how to win you can eye line movement.
(Ranked in the top 10 - Covers Contest) 
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Posted:
#47
Here's a couple of more:
I avoid National TV games... Everybody wants some.
Keep it simple... Be well versed on all confernces , but only try to handicap 3 to 4. I do the ACC, Pac 12, MAC ,and the Southern. If the card is less than 10 I look at the top 20.
This has been a great tread ... lots of good insight.
BOL
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Posted:
#48
The best tip I have is never change your gambling amount. Set it by the week, month, whatever and stick to it.
To many times on here you will see people talk about 1U this 2U that 10U here 20U there. That's not how you churn a profit. Treat every game the same. College championship last night? Play it the same way you'd play the Fairfield @ Iona game.
That's the best way to make $$$ in the long term because when you decide to make big plays based on 'match ups', 'leans' or big events (championships) you're just setting yourself to dig a hole you'll never be able to climb out of.
Just my $.02
GL
To many times on here you will see people talk about 1U this 2U that 10U here 20U there. That's not how you churn a profit. Treat every game the same. College championship last night? Play it the same way you'd play the Fairfield @ Iona game.
That's the best way to make $$$ in the long term because when you decide to make big plays based on 'match ups', 'leans' or big events (championships) you're just setting yourself to dig a hole you'll never be able to climb out of.
Just my $.02
GL
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