first posted play in two years.....

wish me luck. i thought this game warranted a return......

michigan st +2
I LOVE THIS GAME. i know i don't usually take the higher ranked road teams in these match-ups but i think this game warrants it. the books don't appear to care about leuer's injury any more because wisky has played well without him....or they have appeared to. the fact is, in the 5 games without leuer they haven't played anyone who could exploit the gaping hole inside on both ends. wisky is 3-2 without leuer. their 3 wins were against NW, michigan, and sorry penn st (OT). their losses are to ohio st and purdue are excusable on the surface but none of these teams are huge rebounding teams. their rebounding margins are as follows: purdue +0.8, ohio st +2.2, michigan -1.9, penn st +5 (explains OT vs an awful team), and michigan -1.9. wisconsin's rebounding margin is +2.6 on the year but in the 5 games without leuer it is -5 against subpar rebounding teams. what's going to happen when they play michigan st and their +9.8 margin (2nd in nation)? without leuer, wisky has one player that's over 6-6 in their rotation and he hit like 8 3's last game (not exactly a bruiser). 3 of their starters are 6-2, 6-1, and 6-0. lucas offsets hughes in the backcourt. combine all this with michigan st's amazing efficiency (50% FG's) and their 4-0 record on the road in conference and not even bo ryan can get wisconsin out of this mess. the schedule set up this play perfectly for us by hiding how much they miss leuer.

i also locked in seton hall +11. i think this is way too many points here when you consider villanova doesn't blow teams out. the only teams they beat by this number are ole miss (the only solid team), notre dame, rutgers, depaul, drexel, deleware, fordham, and lasalle. some teams they failed to cover this number include george mason (1pt W), dayton (6-W), st joe's (8-W), temple (10 pt loss), marquette (2-W 2X), louisville (8-W), and st john's (10-W). nova is very good, but they're not as good as public perception because the murderous schedule is yet to come. plus to crush seton hall, you have to take them out of their comfort zone and slow the game down. villanova plays a similar tempo and i think seton hall will feel comfortable in this match-up. villanova won this game by only 4 and 2 the last two meetings. throw in the fact that nova has @georgetown next and @west virginia after that and seton hall may not have their full attention. i'm not sure if seton hall can out-nova nova but i'll gladly take 11 points here. here's what i got:

michigan st +2

seton hall +11

GO GREEN

 bowser

LBC - yeah, i know i'm being a square here but i feel like the books are "pulling the carpet" on the sharps in this game.

vankiep - where can i meet the girl in your avatar?

thanks everyone, good luck