Hey Bubba Love Your thread only one I look at anymore.
This play is totally statistics based on past games. History tells me the answer but keep in mind history is history and if only we had tomorrows paper.
Xavier vs Wisconsin facts
Xavier avg 81 ppg and allow 70.5 diff 10.5
Wisc avg 68.2 ppg and allow 63.9 ppg diff 5.7
Strictly based on this Xavier should win 73 to 69 so spread is right and ttl points should be around 142 for posted ttl
Looking further though
Wisc shoots 42.6% from 2 point range with 54.6 2 point shots pg
Xavier shoots 45.3% from 2 point range based on 60.6 shots pg
Xavier drives and gets to the FT line 5 more times per game than Wisc and averages 73.2 % compared to 70 % We all know FT % at the end of the game generally decides the outcome.
Wisc does shoot 2 less 3 point shots per game which to me in 2nd day is important. However the fact that Xavier gets to the line 5 more times per game tells me they are not just jacking 3s which can work in opening round. They are driving to get to the hole which creates fouls.
Other key factors are Xavier outrebounds Wisc on the offensive glass by 2 per game. Xavier holds their opponents to lower shooting % in every category.
The one negative for Xavier is being favorite by 4 points. I am very careful taking favorites and prefer getting points in March Madness. Statisticly speaking without any other factors involved Xavier is the better team on paper.
I will use a $$$$$ on Xavier -4. I think they will force the tempo and take Wisconsin out of their game plan by creating pressure on them to score points....Xavier has more depth. This will be a tough physical game. You might think that plays into Wisc favor. Xavier has the big guys and depth to slug it out and win.
I welcome feedback. If you dont think I am right fade me. You might just be right. We will find out later this afternoon. This is going to be a physical game today. Xavier is the tougher team.
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Posted: 3/20/2016 11:49:50 AM
SUNDAY PLAY $$$$$ XAVIER -4
Hey Bubba Love Your thread only one I look at anymore.
This play is totally statistics based on past games. History tells me the answer but keep in mind history is history and if only we had tomorrows paper.
Xavier vs Wisconsin facts
Xavier avg 81 ppg and allow 70.5 diff 10.5
Wisc avg 68.2 ppg and allow 63.9 ppg diff 5.7
Strictly based on this Xavier should win 73 to 69 so spread is right and ttl points should be around 142 for posted ttl
Looking further though
Wisc shoots 42.6% from 2 point range with 54.6 2 point shots pg
Xavier shoots 45.3% from 2 point range based on 60.6 shots pg
Xavier drives and gets to the FT line 5 more times per game than Wisc and averages 73.2 % compared to 70 % We all know FT % at the end of the game generally decides the outcome.
Wisc does shoot 2 less 3 point shots per game which to me in 2nd day is important. However the fact that Xavier gets to the line 5 more times per game tells me they are not just jacking 3s which can work in opening round. They are driving to get to the hole which creates fouls.
Other key factors are Xavier outrebounds Wisc on the offensive glass by 2 per game. Xavier holds their opponents to lower shooting % in every category.
The one negative for Xavier is being favorite by 4 points. I am very careful taking favorites and prefer getting points in March Madness. Statisticly speaking without any other factors involved Xavier is the better team on paper.
I will use a $$$$$ on Xavier -4. I think they will force the tempo and take Wisconsin out of their game plan by creating pressure on them to score points....Xavier has more depth. This will be a tough physical game. You might think that plays into Wisc favor. Xavier has the big guys and depth to slug it out and win.
I welcome feedback. If you dont think I am right fade me. You might just be right. We will find out later this afternoon. This is going to be a physical game today. Xavier is the tougher team.
[Quote: Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa] I know teasers are forbodden here but on a day like today and yesterday I think they make sense...Favorites clam down and play to their strength and surprise dogs get reality...7/8 Favs cover yesterday, #8 goes if Ky wins in regulation or loses by 3...
So while it doesn't count here, I'm playing Texas A+M -1/Okla even
and Xavier +2/Oregon even...I picked these because I trust all the coaches and teams...none have history of choking or laying eggs like Villanova and Maryland...
[HOYASAXA....I totally agree with your logic and have done quite well. I dont normally play teasers. It makes good sense in NCAA tourny though. Lines are tight games are generally close to the line. Great thing about teasers is you can win both ways no matter what you pick. Like yesterday over under Utah Gonzaga 140...Took it over 130 and under 150 hits both ways. There are many other examples this one just came to mind since I won both of them. I can get 3 team 8 point teaser -110 and 4 team 10 -120. I like 3 teamers better. Tons of money on these games and Vegas lines are generally tight right now. You just have to avoid the blowouts to win. I have Nova plus points for final leg on teaser right now. I will follow your teaser today. BOL to you.I did writeup on Xavier WIsconsin game. You should look at and at least consider my points. Feel free to fade me though man. I generally dont cap games this way in tourny mainly regular season]
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[Quote: Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa] I know teasers are forbodden here but on a day like today and yesterday I think they make sense...Favorites clam down and play to their strength and surprise dogs get reality...7/8 Favs cover yesterday, #8 goes if Ky wins in regulation or loses by 3...
So while it doesn't count here, I'm playing Texas A+M -1/Okla even
and Xavier +2/Oregon even...I picked these because I trust all the coaches and teams...none have history of choking or laying eggs like Villanova and Maryland...
[HOYASAXA....I totally agree with your logic and have done quite well. I dont normally play teasers. It makes good sense in NCAA tourny though. Lines are tight games are generally close to the line. Great thing about teasers is you can win both ways no matter what you pick. Like yesterday over under Utah Gonzaga 140...Took it over 130 and under 150 hits both ways. There are many other examples this one just came to mind since I won both of them. I can get 3 team 8 point teaser -110 and 4 team 10 -120. I like 3 teamers better. Tons of money on these games and Vegas lines are generally tight right now. You just have to avoid the blowouts to win. I have Nova plus points for final leg on teaser right now. I will follow your teaser today. BOL to you.I did writeup on Xavier WIsconsin game. You should look at and at least consider my points. Feel free to fade me though man. I generally dont cap games this way in tourny mainly regular season]
I know teasers are forbodden here but on a day like today and yesterday I think they make sense...Favorites clam down and play to their strength and surprise dogs get reality...7/8 Favs cover yesterday, #8 goes if Ky wins in regulation or loses by 3...
So while it doesn't count here, I'm playing Texas A+M -1/Okla even
and Xavier +2/Oregon even...I picked these because I trust all the coaches and teams...none have history of choking or laying eggs like Villanova and Maryland...
It is interesting to me that last night I also teased Tex A+M and Okla, the only college basketball teaser I have done this year.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:
I know teasers are forbodden here but on a day like today and yesterday I think they make sense...Favorites clam down and play to their strength and surprise dogs get reality...7/8 Favs cover yesterday, #8 goes if Ky wins in regulation or loses by 3...
So while it doesn't count here, I'm playing Texas A+M -1/Okla even
and Xavier +2/Oregon even...I picked these because I trust all the coaches and teams...none have history of choking or laying eggs like Villanova and Maryland...
It is interesting to me that last night I also teased Tex A+M and Okla, the only college basketball teaser I have done this year.
Solid capper bro ... always respect your plays .... Something I noticed , that you are going to just laugh at but I will share with you regardless ...
Upside, I truly appreciate your heads-up and the information you provided, and that you did it in such a respectful way. Luckily for me maybe, I got up too late this morning to do any hedging. Thank you and good luck to you today and always.
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Quote Originally Posted by Upside:
Solid capper bro ... always respect your plays .... Something I noticed , that you are going to just laugh at but I will share with you regardless ...
Upside, I truly appreciate your heads-up and the information you provided, and that you did it in such a respectful way. Luckily for me maybe, I got up too late this morning to do any hedging. Thank you and good luck to you today and always.
What is ND's ATS record as a first half dog this year? I believe they are 0 for ... Maybe SFA to win the first half would be a win-win opportunity for us Irish fans
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Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:
Agree. I think I will play the under 140'
What is ND's ATS record as a first half dog this year? I believe they are 0 for ... Maybe SFA to win the first half would be a win-win opportunity for us Irish fans
If Anaheim ducks in NHL could be a play i would take it but the ML is at -170 so it falls out
Anaheim is on a roll
Key stats:
Winnipeg, which plays the second of a four-game homestand Sunday, is 4-13-1 at home since Jan. 10.
Offensively, the game matches up the Winnipeg Jets No. 22-ranked offense
(2.56 goals per game) against a Anaheim Ducks defense that ranks No. 2
at 2.31 goals per game allowed. The Jets powerplay has clicked at a
15.04% rate while the Ducks have a 87.04% rate on the penalty kill.
Anaheim is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
Anaheim is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 12 games at home
Ducks have not lost to Win
Duck -170 easy money
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If Anaheim ducks in NHL could be a play i would take it but the ML is at -170 so it falls out
Anaheim is on a roll
Key stats:
Winnipeg, which plays the second of a four-game homestand Sunday, is 4-13-1 at home since Jan. 10.
Offensively, the game matches up the Winnipeg Jets No. 22-ranked offense
(2.56 goals per game) against a Anaheim Ducks defense that ranks No. 2
at 2.31 goals per game allowed. The Jets powerplay has clicked at a
15.04% rate while the Ducks have a 87.04% rate on the penalty kill.
Anaheim is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
Anaheim is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 12 games at home
Upside, I truly appreciate your heads-up and the information you provided, and that you did it in such a respectful way. Luckily for me maybe, I got up too late this morning to do any hedging. Thank you and good luck to you today and always.
Thank u Sir !! Appreciate that !!!! GL today !!!
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Quote Originally Posted by MaxWagner:
Upside, I truly appreciate your heads-up and the information you provided, and that you did it in such a respectful way. Luckily for me maybe, I got up too late this morning to do any hedging. Thank you and good luck to you today and always.
If Anaheim ducks in NHL could be a play i would take it but the ML is at -170 so it falls out
Anaheim is on a roll
Key stats:
Winnipeg, which plays the second of a four-game homestand Sunday, is 4-13-1 at home since Jan. 10.
Offensively, the game matches up the Winnipeg Jets No. 22-ranked offense
(2.56 goals per game) against a Anaheim Ducks defense that ranks No. 2
at 2.31 goals per game allowed. The Jets powerplay has clicked at a
15.04% rate while the Ducks have a 87.04% rate on the penalty kill.
Anaheim is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
Anaheim is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 12 games at home
Ducks have not lost to Win
Duck -170 easy money
What about Anaheim to win in regulation at +100?
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Quote Originally Posted by reeseta:
If Anaheim ducks in NHL could be a play i would take it but the ML is at -170 so it falls out
Anaheim is on a roll
Key stats:
Winnipeg, which plays the second of a four-game homestand Sunday, is 4-13-1 at home since Jan. 10.
Offensively, the game matches up the Winnipeg Jets No. 22-ranked offense
(2.56 goals per game) against a Anaheim Ducks defense that ranks No. 2
at 2.31 goals per game allowed. The Jets powerplay has clicked at a
15.04% rate while the Ducks have a 87.04% rate on the penalty kill.
Anaheim is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Anaheim is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Anaheim's last 6 games
Anaheim is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games
Winnipeg is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 12 games at home
What is ND's ATS record as a first half dog this year? I believe they are 0 for ... Maybe SFA to win the first half would be a win-win opportunity for us Irish fans
I am not sure what it is
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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Quote Originally Posted by billywaddy:
What is ND's ATS record as a first half dog this year? I believe they are 0 for ... Maybe SFA to win the first half would be a win-win opportunity for us Irish fans
I was preparing to write up and ask why shouldn't I $$$$ XAVIER $$$$ for the 1st half and game but everybody is already on them! I'm not writing anything up but joining you all! BOL Gents!!
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I was preparing to write up and ask why shouldn't I $$$$ XAVIER $$$$ for the 1st half and game but everybody is already on them! I'm not writing anything up but joining you all! BOL Gents!!
Well since Wisky is 0-5 vs. Big East it must be a lock. LMFAO! How long has Xavier been in the Big East? When was the last time Wisky played a Big East team? What a tool
@nfl_ brosuf don't even waste your time responding to this looser he's a joke. As a proud observer of this thread one of the many things I like is the great energy. I appreciate your write ups and picks among many of the others. I like Xavier even more now that this hater made this comment. Gluck lets get it.
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Quote Originally Posted by svedka64:
Well since Wisky is 0-5 vs. Big East it must be a lock. LMFAO! How long has Xavier been in the Big East? When was the last time Wisky played a Big East team? What a tool
@nfl_ brosuf don't even waste your time responding to this looser he's a joke. As a proud observer of this thread one of the many things I like is the great energy. I appreciate your write ups and picks among many of the others. I like Xavier even more now that this hater made this comment. Gluck lets get it.
Just an observation concerning Oklahoma. When I used my data bank on last 20 games in March it came up 11-9 SU and 5-15 ATS
It is true that Oklahoma has been skating the past few weeks and into the Big-12 tournament. I chose to forgive them for that in picking them -14 against Cal Bakersfield, because of what a huge margin of talent lies between the two teams. I had to swallow a few antacids watching that debacle of a contest, just pitiful how bad Oklahoma played for 95% of the game and how little they seemed to care. So many lazy passes and unforced turnovers on offense and lazy defense.
So if they think they can approach this game like that then they are insane. VCU will pummel their sorry behinds if they don't bring total focus and talent to bear today. I'm laying off this game but would not be surprised if VCU came out the victor unless Oklahoma wakes the heck up.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuck321:
Just an observation concerning Oklahoma. When I used my data bank on last 20 games in March it came up 11-9 SU and 5-15 ATS
It is true that Oklahoma has been skating the past few weeks and into the Big-12 tournament. I chose to forgive them for that in picking them -14 against Cal Bakersfield, because of what a huge margin of talent lies between the two teams. I had to swallow a few antacids watching that debacle of a contest, just pitiful how bad Oklahoma played for 95% of the game and how little they seemed to care. So many lazy passes and unforced turnovers on offense and lazy defense.
So if they think they can approach this game like that then they are insane. VCU will pummel their sorry behinds if they don't bring total focus and talent to bear today. I'm laying off this game but would not be surprised if VCU came out the victor unless Oklahoma wakes the heck up.
ND is getting wide open looks and layups every time in their half court set. They are breaking SFA's trapping defense easily.
SFA is having trouble establishing anything in the half court set. They are letting the shot clock run down to 0 and then shooting contested 3s and long 2s. But they are making them.
If SFA continues shooting lights out, this will come down to the wire.
0
ND is getting wide open looks and layups every time in their half court set. They are breaking SFA's trapping defense easily.
SFA is having trouble establishing anything in the half court set. They are letting the shot clock run down to 0 and then shooting contested 3s and long 2s. But they are making them.
If SFA continues shooting lights out, this will come down to the wire.
I'm hoping today will go a lot better for me than Saturday. I'm still +$$$ overall for NCAA tournament, but I did give a chunk back yesterday. Tailed too many dogs which can be hazardous in the 2nd round of play.
Hopefully today goes better. Already won Villanova, nice to wake up and see a win already in place to start the day off right. Rest of card (so far) is
SFA +2 Texas A&M -6.5 Syracuse under 130 Xavier -4
I hear what y'all are saying about Notre Dame and the way the ACC is bringing it this year. I just have a soft spot for the Lumberjacks. Every time tourney comes around, they get that 'gotta chop some wood' mentality and go on a run. ND is a decent team but not all that great.
Also tempted to side with the Cuse but decided to go with the under instead. May regret that choice. Both teams play that funky helter skelter zone craziness and have the athletes to close on shooters and create pressure. Knowing my luck, both teams will carry over their hot shooting. But I'm hoping they will kind of see a mirror image of each other and get mesmerized into playing a very ugly snoozer.
0
I'm hoping today will go a lot better for me than Saturday. I'm still +$$$ overall for NCAA tournament, but I did give a chunk back yesterday. Tailed too many dogs which can be hazardous in the 2nd round of play.
Hopefully today goes better. Already won Villanova, nice to wake up and see a win already in place to start the day off right. Rest of card (so far) is
SFA +2 Texas A&M -6.5 Syracuse under 130 Xavier -4
I hear what y'all are saying about Notre Dame and the way the ACC is bringing it this year. I just have a soft spot for the Lumberjacks. Every time tourney comes around, they get that 'gotta chop some wood' mentality and go on a run. ND is a decent team but not all that great.
Also tempted to side with the Cuse but decided to go with the under instead. May regret that choice. Both teams play that funky helter skelter zone craziness and have the athletes to close on shooters and create pressure. Knowing my luck, both teams will carry over their hot shooting. But I'm hoping they will kind of see a mirror image of each other and get mesmerized into playing a very ugly snoozer.
Xavier -5 $$$$$$$ wrote a write up earlier that got deleted so this one won't be as long
Pretty much the big east is by far a better conference than the big ten Xavier is a top team in the big east while Wisconsin is not a top 10 team in the big ten. Wisconsin is 0-2 vs 2 mediocre big east teams . Wisconsin is 1-2 in last 3 games while Xavier is 12-3 in last 15 they definetly have the hotter hand . Xavier is more athletic, better at scoring, better at defense, and more determined right now this team is hungry and I'm excited to see how big they win tonight I'm saying 10+ easy
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Xavier -5 $$$$$$$ wrote a write up earlier that got deleted so this one won't be as long
Pretty much the big east is by far a better conference than the big ten Xavier is a top team in the big east while Wisconsin is not a top 10 team in the big ten. Wisconsin is 0-2 vs 2 mediocre big east teams . Wisconsin is 1-2 in last 3 games while Xavier is 12-3 in last 15 they definetly have the hotter hand . Xavier is more athletic, better at scoring, better at defense, and more determined right now this team is hungry and I'm excited to see how big they win tonight I'm saying 10+ easy
Hey guys I have been working on a $$$$ tracker and standings that a lot of you may find useful. It is still a work in progress but over the next week I should have it fully functional. The link is below if you want access. I have learned a lot from the cappers on here and wanted to contribute in some way, as I am not nearly as good at handicapping as the regulars on here.
Most days I will likely update a few times, Bubba I can give you read/write access if you want to make edits.
Appreciate you allowing me access for this and taking the time to compile the stats. It looks like you have me at 1-0 but I am actually 2-0 with my $$$$ plays. You can look back on previous threads but they were Pelicans +2 on 3/8 and Utah U -2 on 3/11. I had to go back and check myself since I forgot what my second $$$$ was lol.
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Quote Originally Posted by thedrifter72:
Hey guys I have been working on a $$$$ tracker and standings that a lot of you may find useful. It is still a work in progress but over the next week I should have it fully functional. The link is below if you want access. I have learned a lot from the cappers on here and wanted to contribute in some way, as I am not nearly as good at handicapping as the regulars on here.
Most days I will likely update a few times, Bubba I can give you read/write access if you want to make edits.
Appreciate you allowing me access for this and taking the time to compile the stats. It looks like you have me at 1-0 but I am actually 2-0 with my $$$$ plays. You can look back on previous threads but they were Pelicans +2 on 3/8 and Utah U -2 on 3/11. I had to go back and check myself since I forgot what my second $$$$ was lol.
For my third $$$$ play I am looking outside the madness and back to the Association. The Magic travel to Toronto for a 4:30 eastern tip in a game the Magic should be motivated for. The reason why I like this game is that the Magic own an ATS road record this season sitting at 18-14. The Magic have lost two straight and should be up for this game and I like them to keep it close and within the 10 pts. The raptors have been somewhat lackluster at home recently and have not been able to cover double digit spreads. The raptors have covered 3 straight overall and are in a let down spot this afternoon. The Magic are 11-0-1 ATS (5.67 ppg) since Mar 14, 2001 on the road after a game as a home loss in which they led in which the third. The Magic have covered 4 out of the last 6 in this series and I like them to keep it close this afternoon.
I got this in at +10 this morning, it is sitting at +9.5 I usually always buy the half point as to not get screwed on the hook. BOL whatever you decide!
-CapnJohnson
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$$$$ Magic +10 $$$$
For my third $$$$ play I am looking outside the madness and back to the Association. The Magic travel to Toronto for a 4:30 eastern tip in a game the Magic should be motivated for. The reason why I like this game is that the Magic own an ATS road record this season sitting at 18-14. The Magic have lost two straight and should be up for this game and I like them to keep it close and within the 10 pts. The raptors have been somewhat lackluster at home recently and have not been able to cover double digit spreads. The raptors have covered 3 straight overall and are in a let down spot this afternoon. The Magic are 11-0-1 ATS (5.67 ppg) since Mar 14, 2001 on the road after a game as a home loss in which they led in which the third. The Magic have covered 4 out of the last 6 in this series and I like them to keep it close this afternoon.
I got this in at +10 this morning, it is sitting at +9.5 I usually always buy the half point as to not get screwed on the hook. BOL whatever you decide!
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