After a successful conference tourney run, let’s try The Big Dance
UMBC takes on Howard in an interesting match of styles that I think will favor Howard at least in the early going. Howard’s defense is high pressure half court – aggressive, lots of switching which generates steals (27th in steals) and other turnovers (10th in forced t/o). They’re also tough on 3 pt shooters – 29.9% against rate(11th).
UMBC hasn’t often (if ever) seen that type of D pressure in the AmEast. They saw a high-pressure D against Morgan St (MEAC) in Nov – UMBC won by 2 but had a season high 18 t/os. UMBC plays a disciplined offense (9.6 to/gm – 24th) and they rely on 3 pt scoring. I think this side of the court match-up leans to Howard.
On the other side of the floor, UMBC’s defensive eff ranks 37. They constrain offensive tempo and second chances off the glass. Howard’s motion, transition and high tempo is a bit of different look vs. most of UMBC’s opponents this season. I expect UMBC will adjust, but it might take some time.
Other factors:
- Neutral and larger venue - 15K vs typical 2-5K in the AmEast & MEAC.
- The AmEast tourney was played in conference gyms with UMBC hosting all its games, inc. championship. MEAC was held in a 10k neutral arena.
- Bryce Harris (Bison’s top scorer) along with 2 other Howard players and coach Blakeney played in the Dayton Arena in their 2024 First Four game (lost by 2 to Wager).
First Half, Howard ML +103 (at ProphetX)
Good luck to all
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