This is purely a system play, even though the sample size is small.
Air Force and Alabama St combine to average 145 ppg and allow 160 ppg against between the two.
Normally oddsmakers average out these two putting it at 152.5, especially as time goes on. This generally creates the total as a base before adding in tangible variables.
The fact this line is 138.5 with all the markings of an over leads me to believe this flies under. GL to those that tail!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
8-4 YTD
This is purely a system play, even though the sample size is small.
Air Force and Alabama St combine to average 145 ppg and allow 160 ppg against between the two.
Normally oddsmakers average out these two putting it at 152.5, especially as time goes on. This generally creates the total as a base before adding in tangible variables.
The fact this line is 138.5 with all the markings of an over leads me to believe this flies under. GL to those that tail!
I’m going to disagree here. AF will be focused tonight and shoot well hungry for a win. Ala has let little ole Lynchburg drop 68 on them. AF has allowed no one to score under 70 and has played some way better defensive teams then ala. LIU game whose defense is suspect like Ala game went well into the 140s The total seems set on AF inability to score against the Miami oh and Austin peay( whose pace is slow and defense is stout). AF will be ready to play and win They will score 80 possibly. The over is the play I believe.
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I’m going to disagree here. AF will be focused tonight and shoot well hungry for a win. Ala has let little ole Lynchburg drop 68 on them. AF has allowed no one to score under 70 and has played some way better defensive teams then ala. LIU game whose defense is suspect like Ala game went well into the 140s The total seems set on AF inability to score against the Miami oh and Austin peay( whose pace is slow and defense is stout). AF will be ready to play and win They will score 80 possibly. The over is the play I believe.
I couldn’t agree with you more and I’m not saying this to be condescending. When the numbers are so skewed in the favor of the over like you described in my 30 years of sports betting the opposite of what’s expected based on the line they put out generally happens.
You could be totally right and I have looked very dumb more than once.
im just playing this one under based on years of experience thinking exactly how you are. It screams Over!
BOL and if im wrong ill be very happy you won and have capped it correctly.
This is just a system play for me. When the number should be 152.5 based on how they generally calculate totals taking ppg between both and ppg against divided in half, if the o/u is way lower or higher than the expected result like this one is, 152.5 I go the other way and win more than I lose.
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@brickbets
I couldn’t agree with you more and I’m not saying this to be condescending. When the numbers are so skewed in the favor of the over like you described in my 30 years of sports betting the opposite of what’s expected based on the line they put out generally happens.
You could be totally right and I have looked very dumb more than once.
im just playing this one under based on years of experience thinking exactly how you are. It screams Over!
BOL and if im wrong ill be very happy you won and have capped it correctly.
This is just a system play for me. When the number should be 152.5 based on how they generally calculate totals taking ppg between both and ppg against divided in half, if the o/u is way lower or higher than the expected result like this one is, 152.5 I go the other way and win more than I lose.
No you sound like someone who’s doing research and like myself with as many gambling years as you I love the contrarian look when something is pointing one way it goes the other. I got smoked on the over in Georgia game. Everyone on under. Shit it screamed under bc little Fla am can’t score. I went with over. Went like shit obvs. Good luck today
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@Noonball
No you sound like someone who’s doing research and like myself with as many gambling years as you I love the contrarian look when something is pointing one way it goes the other. I got smoked on the over in Georgia game. Everyone on under. Shit it screamed under bc little Fla am can’t score. I went with over. Went like shit obvs. Good luck today
Kenpom has it at 143 so your 152 guesstimate is high. Over the past three years if there's a disparity between KP total and the opening line more than 4.5 pts, the books are correct more often than KP. But that doesn't apply here since it's only 3pt difference. I do agree with the under tho.
AF is terrible at free throws and turnovers and plays slow AF. You waste 30 35 seconds and then turn it over a bunch of times that prevents high totals. Also Alabama is going from practically sea level to over a mile high, altitude is a b as the night goes on.
GL
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Kenpom has it at 143 so your 152 guesstimate is high. Over the past three years if there's a disparity between KP total and the opening line more than 4.5 pts, the books are correct more often than KP. But that doesn't apply here since it's only 3pt difference. I do agree with the under tho.
AF is terrible at free throws and turnovers and plays slow AF. You waste 30 35 seconds and then turn it over a bunch of times that prevents high totals. Also Alabama is going from practically sea level to over a mile high, altitude is a b as the night goes on.
Hopefully this a snooze fest, maximize possession type of game with a score of 22-24 at the half..
The stress will come in the last minute where there will be fouling. With a spread of -3, I don't expect AF to be blowing out the opponent. Rather it will be a close game and you may be clenching your ass hole.
No worries though. As bettors, we've all been through those "ass clenching" moments during the final minutes of a betting event.
bro
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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Hopefully this a snooze fest, maximize possession type of game with a score of 22-24 at the half..
The stress will come in the last minute where there will be fouling. With a spread of -3, I don't expect AF to be blowing out the opponent. Rather it will be a close game and you may be clenching your ass hole.
No worries though. As bettors, we've all been through those "ass clenching" moments during the final minutes of a betting event.
I’m not sure what you’re getting at? I was citing their combined ppg thus far and their ppg against. The difference equals 152.5. Vs the actual line of 138.5.
Didnt use Kenpom or whatever you’re referencing to come up with this pick. This is method I use in handicapping. but thank you for alerting me to this information.
That I may get slaughtered in.
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@topcatt89_OLD_11887
I’m not sure what you’re getting at? I was citing their combined ppg thus far and their ppg against. The difference equals 152.5. Vs the actual line of 138.5.
Didnt use Kenpom or whatever you’re referencing to come up with this pick. This is method I use in handicapping. but thank you for alerting me to this information.
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