Does anybody know what the percentage in parenthesis mean? For example (59%) for the uconn game means what?
Why are the games on kenpom predicted so far in advance? Does anybody know what factor or information Kenpom uses for the predictions?
Also, if anybody know of a good weigh to rely on the fanmatch prediction info.....please share.
For example, i notice that if the difference between the prediction score is at least 3 points more than the actual spread....Then you should consider the underdog as a play....Find at least two underdog that fit this criteria and tease them together, you will increase your chances. In fact, I have yet to find such a scenerio that loses.
In other words, tonight, teasing San Fransico and Cincinnati together should win according to the formulat that I propose.
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Does anybody know what the percentage in parenthesis mean? For example (59%) for the uconn game means what?
Why are the games on kenpom predicted so far in advance? Does anybody know what factor or information Kenpom uses for the predictions?
Also, if anybody know of a good weigh to rely on the fanmatch prediction info.....please share.
For example, i notice that if the difference between the prediction score is at least 3 points more than the actual spread....Then you should consider the underdog as a play....Find at least two underdog that fit this criteria and tease them together, you will increase your chances. In fact, I have yet to find such a scenerio that loses.
In other words, tonight, teasing San Fransico and Cincinnati together should win according to the formulat that I propose.
The percentage you reference is the calculation percent that the favored team should win. IE: Georgetown has an 83% chance of winning outright. These are purely moneyline numbers.
I started a system last year where I tracked vegas line versus kenpom lines. The basis being if vegas posts a line that is "x" points off of kenpom, play VEGAS. The reason is that kenpom uses multiple tangible factors (for their criteria read more on kp), vegas will factor in look-aheads, short rest, let-downs, injuries, etc. So, for example, tonight UConn should win by 2 according to kp, Vegas has 5.5. Pick - UConn -5.5.
The results of the system are fair. It does provide a very good foundation though, given its criteria and rationalization, for a greater system to be created. For example any game with over 4 point variation under a 13 point spread. Naturally as a game gets a higher spread a point is less valuable (I hope that just made sense). Anyway, I believe there are a few KP systems around this forum. I would check those out for more data. Good Luck!!
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The percentage you reference is the calculation percent that the favored team should win. IE: Georgetown has an 83% chance of winning outright. These are purely moneyline numbers.
I started a system last year where I tracked vegas line versus kenpom lines. The basis being if vegas posts a line that is "x" points off of kenpom, play VEGAS. The reason is that kenpom uses multiple tangible factors (for their criteria read more on kp), vegas will factor in look-aheads, short rest, let-downs, injuries, etc. So, for example, tonight UConn should win by 2 according to kp, Vegas has 5.5. Pick - UConn -5.5.
The results of the system are fair. It does provide a very good foundation though, given its criteria and rationalization, for a greater system to be created. For example any game with over 4 point variation under a 13 point spread. Naturally as a game gets a higher spread a point is less valuable (I hope that just made sense). Anyway, I believe there are a few KP systems around this forum. I would check those out for more data. Good Luck!!
I totally agree with you, it is best to side with Vegas when their is an "x" points difference....
One thing I forgot to mention was that my formula only considers the match up where the prediction is at least 67%.
So if kenpom is 95% in favor of St. Mary and the prediction score difference is 21, but the Vegas spread is only 16.5. Then I'm going to consider choosing San Fransico. And I'm going to increase my chances by teasing it with another team that fits the same criteria.
Tonight teaser will be:
Teaser
427.00
328.46
Basketball - 747 Cincinnati +14½ for Game Basketball - 749 San Francisco +24½ for Game
I choose New Jersey because over 70% of covers is on Atlanta and the spread of 5.5 doesnt budge....
If I lose this teaser tonight, I'll scratch out this philosophy and go back to the drawing board.
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Thanks Phi131, I appreciate the feedback
I totally agree with you, it is best to side with Vegas when their is an "x" points difference....
One thing I forgot to mention was that my formula only considers the match up where the prediction is at least 67%.
So if kenpom is 95% in favor of St. Mary and the prediction score difference is 21, but the Vegas spread is only 16.5. Then I'm going to consider choosing San Fransico. And I'm going to increase my chances by teasing it with another team that fits the same criteria.
Tonight teaser will be:
Teaser
427.00
328.46
Basketball - 747 Cincinnati +14½ for Game Basketball - 749 San Francisco +24½ for Game
I choose New Jersey because over 70% of covers is on Atlanta and the spread of 5.5 doesnt budge....
If I lose this teaser tonight, I'll scratch out this philosophy and go back to the drawing board.
The percentage you reference is the calculation percent that the favored team should win. IE: Georgetown has an 83% chance of winning outright. These are purely moneyline numbers.
I started a system last year where I tracked vegas line versus kenpom lines. The basis being if vegas posts a line that is "x" points off of kenpom, play VEGAS. The reason is that kenpom uses multiple tangible factors (for their criteria read more on kp), vegas will factor in look-aheads, short rest, let-downs, injuries, etc. So, for example, tonight UConn should win by 2 according to kp, Vegas has 5.5. Pick - UConn -5.5.
The results of the system are fair. It does provide a very good foundation though, given its criteria and rationalization, for a greater system to be created. For example any game with over 4 point variation under a 13 point spread. Naturally as a game gets a higher spread a point is less valuable (I hope that just made sense). Anyway, I believe there are a few KP systems around this forum. I would check those out for more data. Good Luck!!
Does Kenpom actually tell you how they predict the games??? If so, where on the site?
0
Quote Originally Posted by Phi131:
The percentage you reference is the calculation percent that the favored team should win. IE: Georgetown has an 83% chance of winning outright. These are purely moneyline numbers.
I started a system last year where I tracked vegas line versus kenpom lines. The basis being if vegas posts a line that is "x" points off of kenpom, play VEGAS. The reason is that kenpom uses multiple tangible factors (for their criteria read more on kp), vegas will factor in look-aheads, short rest, let-downs, injuries, etc. So, for example, tonight UConn should win by 2 according to kp, Vegas has 5.5. Pick - UConn -5.5.
The results of the system are fair. It does provide a very good foundation though, given its criteria and rationalization, for a greater system to be created. For example any game with over 4 point variation under a 13 point spread. Naturally as a game gets a higher spread a point is less valuable (I hope that just made sense). Anyway, I believe there are a few KP systems around this forum. I would check those out for more data. Good Luck!!
Does Kenpom actually tell you how they predict the games??? If so, where on the site?
Its a formula that only they know but it takes into account all there statistical annaylsis. If that makes sense.
The games are predicted weeks in advance. And the stats change after each game. So why predict a game a week in advance when the stats could be changed by the possible games played before the predicted game.
Predicting weeks in advance without the most up to date stats is what I don't understand.
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Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:
Its a formula that only they know but it takes into account all there statistical annaylsis. If that makes sense.
The games are predicted weeks in advance. And the stats change after each game. So why predict a game a week in advance when the stats could be changed by the possible games played before the predicted game.
Predicting weeks in advance without the most up to date stats is what I don't understand.
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