Indigo lines week 1

I am not line guessing....I'm putting out what my relative strength ratings are.  Typically in the CFL one fades last season's results in the beginning of the season, which means one looks to take underdogs that were worse than their present opponent was last season.  

For the first time last season in my years of betting, underdogs didn't do very well in the CFL, as the Bombers covered everything and the Tiger Cats were terrible as dogs.  

We get back on the horse and expect some big-time reversion to what has been normal for the CFL, which is dogs and UNDERs.  Last year, and in most years the West has dominated the East, especially when the West has gone onto the East's home fields, and especially in the first couple months of the season before the lines for the East teams get so huge that there is some regression.

Week 1 (regular season)

Home               Away

Stamps -4.5     Lions  47

Bombers -6.5   Tiger Cats 42

Alouettes -3      Redblacks 48

Elks        pik      Roughriders 45

Elks haven't won a home game in forever and should change their name back to the Eskimos....I look for them to start off the season right and get the W, and for them to make the playoffs in the West.  Their defense should be good....if they can run the ball they will cover a ton of games.

It's hard to know what to expect from the Redblacks as they have a completely new coaching staff, and the head coach has never been a head coach.....the Alouettes have exchanged quarterbacks and have lost their best receiver.  Jason Maas never impressed me much when he was a head coach previously, maybe his team will score some points, but if they finish at 500 that should be considered a good season....the East should have a lot of intradivisional upsets this season, as I rank the Alouettes, Argos and Redblacks all as equals...................lean Redblacks.

Hamilton, coming off two straight runner-up finishes had a total meltdown last season, when the front office made the wrong decision on who should quarterback the team.  They should win the East if BLM is at least serviceable.  I look for them to give the Bombers a game, so lean Tiger Cats opening day.  It looks foolish when going against what has been a juggernaut that is the Bombers, but I look for them to regress this year and have a difficult time covering games.  No hesitation about jumping off that train though....if the Bombers crush the 'Cats in game one, I won't be testing fate after that.

Calgary couldn't stop anyone last season, but continued on as a steamroller on offense....the two best coaches in the league have been Stamps' and the Bombers' and it has been that way for quite some time.  Lions lost the best player in the league to the NFL (and he is better than the Jaguars' starting quarterback) and one of the best receivers, so will expect them to take a step back.  Lions should scheme their way into scoring against what has been a leaky defense................lean OVER.

These angles are taken using the database gimmethedog........

1)  Before game 8......a  home Eastern division team playing a team from the West....50-68 ATS, 28-47-1 ATS as home favorites.

division=East and division!=o:division and HF and game number<8

Those East teams have not fared much better as home favorites in-division, going 18-28 ATS as home favorites.

division=East and division=o:division and HF and game number<8

Lines have not come out for the CFL as far as I can tell, though now there are tons of sportsbooks in Ontario and other states in Canada....Canada is doing it right, knowing that with competition the bettor will receive the best possible prices, especially now that Pinnacle, the best sportsbook in the world for many years has gotten a foothold in the north american market.

Other sportsbooks will have to up their game to compete....it is kind of like Southwest Airlines in the USA.....they have obliterated their competition by offering by far the best fares and most of their flights are now fully booked.  Other sports books may play the fanduel game of offering huge bonuses to deposit, but ultimately a sportsbook offering -106, or -105 instead of -110 is the better percentage play instead of going for the deposit bonus.

I would not be surprised if quite a few sportsbooks in the future try to compete with pinnacle.  The sportsbooks with deep pockets will see what happens with pinnacle establishing a beachhead in north america, and they will have three options.....1)  Throw huge deposit bonuses at customers, which is already happening   2)  Compete on price    3) sportsbooks in places that Pinnacle has not yet gotten a license will bribe the regulators to keep them out of their jurisdiction.

I could readily see #3 that happening in places like Las Vegas, where the sportsbooks have had a gravy train for many, many years and they have made 100s of millions of dollars.  Throw a million or two at the decision makers and pinnacle will never get in.

The other interesting development is now betting exchanges have also gotten a foothold into north america with STX getting a license in Ontario and Prophet Sports being granted licensure in New Jersey.  They will be able to undercut even Pinnacle and it is a slam dunk way to do business in the sports betting field.....Betfair and Matchbook are popular in Europe and there is absolutely no risk to the business proprietors.

For those that don't know how a betting exchange operates,....if I want to bet on Team A that the general market has at -3 over Team B....I make an offer of say Team A -3, -102 for 100 dollars......for the transaction to be an actual bet, one or more bettors must take the opposite side of Team B, +3 +102 for a cumulative total of 100 dollars....there could be one bettor that bets Team B +3, +102 for 60 dollars and another that bets Team B +102 for the remaining 40 dollars.  Then my Team A -3, -102 bet  is fully matched and I have a play.  If one or more bettors only bet a combined 50 dollars on team B, I would have a bet for only 50 dollars.

Depending on the exchange 2-5% is taken out of the winning bettors profit.  The exchange has no skin in the game, and they sleep well at night.

As I have mentioned before, the suits that are risk averse in casinos realize that sportsbooks can take a pounding if the public gets it right.  You have got for-sure things in a casino like roulette, poker, horse racing, non-card counting blackjack and one armed bandits....an accountant-type who is good with numbers realizes it is impossible to lose in those games. 

Sports betting can be beaten though the public never does for any length of time.....that sticks in the craw of the suits...the "what if a million dollars of one sided action on the Packers is laid by the public and the Packers cover?"  Your sportsbook has to pay up and  they have lost that particular game.  Bookmakers are fine with risk as that is how sports betting has worked for the past 100 years, but the higher ups are not always that way and particularly your sportsbooks run by British people have made it their mission to kick winners out of their sportsbook.

It is worth thinking about that the sportsbooks that are least worried about risk have been the most successful, such as pinnacle....they offer the best prices, they don't worry too much about winning bettors and the months that the public might win....over time they know that they will crush the public as been going on for eons.

The only issues with exchanges is there are no parlays or teasers as it is difficult to match someone who is parlay betting team A and C with someone who wants to take their opponents Teams B and D.

Also, that CFL lines are not yet out is telling.  NFL and college lines are out 4 months in advance and the CFL lines, with 10 days to go before the start of the season are not out.  That means the books have not gotten it right in the CFL and the public has beaten them in the past.  There were times in the past that all the sportsbooks didn't put any CFL lines out until a day before the game.  

Sportsinteraction.ca in the past has been the first to put out lines that were realistic...there's been another sportsbook that put out lines before them whose name I don't recall, but their lines were set by some lunatic and the lines were  quickly adjusted once sportsinteraction and other sportsbooks put out their lines. 

Something to consider.

Do people actually read this sh@t?

@Juventusfan

 If Covers had enabled downvotes, you would have garnered one.

Lol......Are other people actually as ignorant as you?......

Probably not.

Lines are out, maybe,.....using oddsshark, who is not saying where they have gotten the lines from.  

Totals are not included as of now, Saturday afternoon

        Away team             Home team

1)  Roughriders  -3.5         Elks

2)  Redblacks    +1.5         Alouettes

3)  Tiger Cats    +4.5         Blue Bombers 

4)   Lions          +3.5         Stampeders

We'll see if these will change as they become more available.

Draft Kings and Fan Duel have lines out....Edmonton line has moved.....sportsbook line on left, Indigo's on right.

        Home 

Bombers   -4'  47'                 -6'    42

Stamps     -3'  46'                 -4'    47

Alouettes  -1' 45'                   -3    48

Elks          +2' 45'                 pik    45

Plays:

1)  Elks +2.5, 2 units

2)  Tiger Cats +4.5 2 units

3)  Redblacks +1.5, 2 units

Oddsshark has made two absurd errors on posted Week 1 totals:  BC-CGY 11.5 and SSK-EDM 13.

Overs look like "locks" in those games, but I assume Oddsshark would cancel those wagers.

Heritage has posted RSWL's but not Week 1 as of yet.

@DogbiteWilliams

There's four sportsbooks with lines now on Sunday afternoon .....

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/cfl/odds

Looks fanduel and Draftkings will lead the way in the CFL and the usual suspects will act like their whole empire will come crashing down if they post CFL lines more than 48 hours in advance.

That sportsbook with the weird CFL lines that came out before anyone else....I remember now who they were.....betregal.ca.

I went onto their site and they have CFL week 1 lines up, in sync with what fanduel and draftkings have, so everyone must be using the same line service this season.

HOWEVER, their CFL lines are at -105 each way, and their NFL lines are a maximum -108 each way and some of their week 1 games have one side at -108 and the opposite side at -106.  NBA lines are -107 each way and they have a 12 cent difference for NHL hockey sides.  NCAA football has the normal -110 lines that everyone else has.....perhaps that will change as things get closer to late August.

I am pretty impressed with that....they have decided to undercut the competition, which is good for the consumer and the betting intelligencia should flock to them to make their plays in Canada.

Any of you Canadians have any dealings with them?  Do they limit how much you can bet or kick you out if you are a winner?  Canada is headed towards having an embarrassment of riches when it comes to choosing a sportsbook.  Good for you guys, maybe it will become contagious to us south of the border. 

I might have to apply for a Canadian visa.

For American bettors, a recent betting survey found that 60% of bettors bet the NFL, making it the most popular sport.  I would have guessed that this percentage was higher.

Here are a couple of week one NFL angles, based on the fact that week 2 NFL lines are also out for betting.

1) Play against a week 1 home favorite who will be an underdog their next game, playing a team who will be a favorite their next game....32-55 ATS

  a)  If that home favorite had a better record the previous season this moves to 12-39-2 ATS

  b)  If the line on that game is greater than 4.....9-25 ATS (-6.74), 19-15 straight up.....VERSUS Ravens 

week=1 and HF and n:D and line<-4 and PRSW>o:PRSW and on:F

2)  A week 1 home favorite of greater than 4 points who will be an underdog their next game if they had the greater regular season record the previous season.....26-41-1 ATS....VERSUS Commanders

3)  Go against a week 1 away favorite that will be a home dog their following game.......20-9 ATS, 8-2 ATS if this is a divisional game....VERSUS Jaguars

week=1 and AF and n:HD and DIV

4)  Play on a week 1 home divisional dog that will be an away favorite their following game....5-2 ATS....ON NYG

5)  Play on a week 1 away dog of greater than 6 points when they will be home favorites of greater than 3 points their next game.....20-11 ATS, 19-9 ATS if they had a worse record than their present opponent the prior season.......ON Lions

week=1 and AD and line>6 and n:line<-3 and PRSW<o:PRSW

Here is THE incredible stat for the season......

6)  NFL week one away dogs that outrush attempt their opponent have gone 113-14 ATS, 89% (+10.26),  winning straight up close to 68% of the time.  Home dogs that do likewise cover 81% of the time, covering by an average of over 9 points/game

week=1 and AD, HD and rushes>o:rushes

CFL angle....

7)  A week 1 away dog....29-14 ATS (+3.9), 20-22-1 straight up (-2.0), 15-28 o/u.......Tiger Cats, Lions, Redblacks....17-4 ATS if the line is higher than 5......Tiger Cats

Plays.......

The lines changed before my sportsbook put out their CFL lines...I am updating to what I actually played these games at....

1)  Tiger Cats +5.5 for 1.9 units, and .1 units at +185 moneyline

2)  Elks +2.5 for 1.2 units, and .8 units at +125 moneyline

Waiting on the Redblacks' line to see if it moves...if they become favorites it will be a no-play.

Sorry if there might have been confusion,...in the future I will wait until at least Monday to make my plays official.

The public seems to favor Montreal based on recent form.  TSN reports uncertainty about Ottawa starting quarterback.  Injury prone Masoli missing in preseason games.

Thanks for the heads-up....haven't watched a minute of preseason.....will almost certainly become a no-play.

Nick Arbuckle scheduled to start for the Redblacks....a Jekyll and Hyde player....can look like an all-world player one game and then be terrible the next two games.

Arbuckle has had a few chances to be the guy, including one time in Calgary where I thought he would be an all-star, but has never managed to hold onto a starting spot.

I like the two coordinator hires for Ottawa, but will want to see what things look like for a game with Masoli out, public has moved the line for the Alouettes up to 3....perhaps it may go higher by game time.

Leaning UNDERs in all games except for the Calgary/BC game....that one there could be 60 scored.

Week 1 trends continued.....

7)  Away week 1 dogs 29-14 ATS

  a)  A week 1 away dog,...East division playing a West division team 14-8 ATS, 7-15 o/u...average line/total +6.36/50.36 average score 21.9-26.6..........Tiger Cats

  b)  A week 1 away dog divisional game East versus East.....6-2 ATS, 3-4 o/u, average line/total +5/50.36, average score 27.9-22............Redblacks

  c)  A week 1 away dog divisional game West versus West....4-1 ATS, 3-2 o/u average line/total +5/50.9, average score 28.2-29.2...............Lions

8)  Home divisional dogs week 1....3-1 ATS, 2-2 o/u, average line/total +4.38/50.25, average score 25.5-27.8......Elks

NFL week 1....

9)  NFL week 1 away dogs that made the playoffs the season prior.....20-40 ATS....VERSUS Bucs and Dolphins

 Week=1 and AD and tpS(playoffs)>0

a)  10-24 ATS if the line is larger than 3.....VERSUS Bucs

Week=1 and AD and tpS(playoffs)>0 and line>3

10)  Week 1 away dogs that missed the playoffs the season prior, IF they had the lesser wins than their present opponent did the prior season, provided their present opponent didn't win 9 more games than they did......99-62-5 ATS.....Lions, Cards, Texans, Rams

tpS(playoffs)=0 and AD and week=1 and -9<tpS(W)<0

  a)  If their present opponent played in more than 2 playoff game last season this has been 7-2 ATS, 5-4 straight up.....ON Lions

tpS(playoffs)=0 and AD and week=1 and -9<tpS(W)<0 and opS(playoffs)>2

Line moved to Edmonton being the favorite, in some places it has moved 5 points.

CFL.ca staff writers' picks...usually a very good fade

BC 83%

Winnipeg 100%

Ottawa 67%

Edmonton 50%

Line for the Detroit Lions in week 2 is now -2, not -3.5,....we'll modify one of our  query texts to account for that.

That angle is now 31-14 ATS,....still very good, including 5-1 ATS, 4-2 straight up if their opponent played in 3 or more playoff games.

The angle referenced earlier with our correction is.....

a)  Play on a week 1 NFL away dog of greater than 6 points

b)  that won less games last season than their present opponent

c)  but didn't lose 9 or more games than their present opponent last season

d)  if that team is favored in their next game

This is 26-10 ATS if our indicated team missed the playoffs their previous season...this has been 46-17 ATS if we stipulate the week 1 line must be greater than 3 points, 6-1 ATS, 5-2 straight up if their present opponent played in 3 or 4 playoff games the previous season......ON Detroit Lions

Using killersports or gimmethedog.........

week=1 and AD and line>6 and n:line<0 and -9<PRSW-o:PRSW<0 and tpS(playoffs)=0

Good job Indigo.  I personally like going through your posts.  Straight forward and numbers are unbiased and don't lie.  Look forward to future posts.