Indigo lines

Record season-to-date 4-5-1 +0.3 units

I went 0-4 on my preseason NFL picks....lesson learned.

Nathan Rourke obviously had a very rough day, and the Bombers suddenly look invincible on defense.  The Lions were made second favorites to win the Grey Cup and that does not look like reality right now, as both their offensive and defensive lines look very bad.

Kelly will come back to the Argos....I expect him to have a Deshaun Watson type rest of his career in the CFL...perhaps he'll start on Thursday....and I doubt he'll have a good game. 

The Elks look like they'll beat out a couple of teams to make the playoffs, though their defense is not good enough....I will take them against the Alouettes if Tre Ford is the starter.  Both Powell and Alexander look better than the long-time starters for the Tiger Cats and Alouettes and possibly Masoli could be that guy for the Redblacks as well.

After a couple of very mediocre seasons, the CFL is back to being a very interesting, fun league...July and August are typically underdog months, before favorites become more dominant toward the end of the season.

The Bombers look again to be an awesome force, as they have been for the past few years.....if Bo Levi starts for the Tiger Cats we will be on Winnipeg.

My lines are not based on what the bookmakers think the strengths of the teams are, but of my own.

Argos      pik  51   Sasquatches

Bombers -12  47  Tiger Cats

Redblacks -3  46   Lions

Alouettes  -7  52   Elks 

Angles

a)  An away non-divisional dog of less than 7 points in August that lost at home the previous game....16-4 ATS (+6.62), 12-7-1 straight up, 4-16 o/u....ON Roughriders

b)  An away non-divisional dog that rushes for more yards than  their opponent...288-85-4 ATS, 77.2% (+8.4).....the Elks for three games now have had a dominant running game, as their offensive line has played very well, though I am not so sure of them doing so against the Alouettes unless Tre Ford plays.... running dogs do well on the road regardless of whether it is the NCAA, NFL or CFL.....just take a look at Lamar Jackson's road record in the NFL. As long as Ford is quarterbacking, we'll look to back the Elks on the road and also play them to go OVER the total.....ON Elks and OVER.

c)  Home dogs that are off an away win have done poorly in the history of the CFL....the line of the Redblacks game is off quite substantially  and probably will be favorites by game time.  The Eastern Division for the first time in recent memory is better than the West, which I am not sure if the bookmakers have caught on to that fact.  I want to see where this line is going before I decide if I'll make a play....leaning hard on Redblacks despite what my database says.  

Play:

1)  Roughriders +120, 1 unit

b)  An away non-divisional team at pik or favored off at least three straight losses.....2-9 ATS (-5.7), 5-6 straight up (-2),.....VERSUS Lions

line<=0 and A and p:L and pp:L and ppp:L and division!=o:division

Plays:

2)  Redblacks +110........1 unit

1)  Roughriders +120.....1 unit

angles continued.......

e)  An away dog of less than 7 points playing against a team on at least a three game winning streak...38-30 ATS, 55.9% (+2.3), 28-43 straight up (-1.9)....this is 12-6-1 ATS in the month of August as August has historically been an underdog month (and September has been primarily a favorite month).

This becomes 11-7-1 ATS if this is a non-divisional matchup, 6-2 in the month of August, 3-5 straight up (+3.12).......ON Elks

AD and o:streak>2 and line<7

f)  An away dog of less than 7 on a least a three game winning streak 30-30 ATS.....if our away dog has a winning percentage of 50% or less this becomes 9-1 ATS (+13.0!!), 7-3 straight up (+9.8).......ON Elks

AD and streak>2 and line<7 and playoffs=0 and tA(W)<=.5

It's early, but we'll talk CFL playoffs....Montreal, rightfully so is the favorite to win the Grey Cup at +210, and then BC is at +230, who shouldn't be that high.  Keep in mind that like the NFL, the team with the lesser winning percentage in the grand finale has a stellar record.

In fact teams with the lesser record in neutral site non-divisional playoff games (presumably the Grey Cup) in the CFL have been 7-1 ATS and in home games  they have been 10-3 ATS, which presumably have been crossover playoff games.

I like both the Redblacks and the Roughriders at +750 and +600.  The Elks have been bet down to 40/1.  If Edmonton were to beat the Als this weekend they'd be bet down a ton further.  I might make that bet if Tre Ford were to start at qb this weekend.

The Riders get the Bombers in a home and home, play two against Calgary and one against the Elks the rest of the way.   How they do against each other will decide the division.

I don't consider Calgary to be a contender, and unless Nathan Rourke and/or Vernon Adams becomes superman the Lions season will not end well. 

Plays:

Adding....

3)  Roughriders +3....1 unit

__________________________

2)  Roughriders +120.....1 unit

1)  Redblacks +110.......1 unit  

angles continued....

g)  A non-divisional home favorite whose opponent allows >30 points a game on defense 38-48-1 ATS (+0.4), 59-27 straight up (+8.1)......this moves to 5-13 ATS in August games......(-1.56), 12-6 (+5.22) straight up.....VERSUS Bombers

h)  A non-divisional home favorite with a winning percentage below 50% off two or more straight wins....8-19 ATS (-4.3), 12-15 straight up (+1.3).....however this moves to 5-1 ATS if this is a non-divisional matchup and the line is greater than or equal to minus 7 points.....Bombers

HF and tA(W)<.5 and p:W and pp:W

i)  A non-divisional home favorite of more than 4 points after week 5 whose opponent has a scoring margin of at least 30 points in their previous three games....9-1 ATS (+13.7), 10-0 straight up (+18.6).....ON Alouettes

HF and week>5 and division!=o:division and oS(margin, N=3)>30 and line<-4

j)  A home favorite playing an opponent who in their last three games  has rushed for an average of over 150 yards/game and won their last three games, 10-0-1 ATS (+13.1), 11-0 straight up (+14.8).....ON Alouettes

HF and oS(RY, N=3)>450 and oS(W, N=3)=3

Tre Ford not likely to play, and Leake is out as well for the Elks

Plays......adding....

4)  Alouettes -7, 1 unit

_____________________

3)  Roughriders +3, 1 unit

2)  Roughriders +120, 1 unit

1)  Redblacks +110, 1 unit

Good luck.

Riders prevent offense blows another game.

1)  Riders +3.....winner

2)  Riders +120...loser

3)  Redblacks +110....1 unit

4)  Alouettes -7..........1 unit

The Idea that a team is going to hold onto a 3 point lead in the last 5 minutes of a CFL game is poor coaching.  

The Riders could have lost this game by four touchdowns in normal circumstances, so getting a split is ok and of course very lucky that the kicker missed the last second field goal.  After two first half interceptions, the RRs never threw for first down yardage until they were behind.  Instead they ran the ball on first down for 1, 2 and 4 yards before breaking one off for 15.  After being put in 2nd and long, they threw 5 yard passes or receiver screens.....the Riders' offense never helped their excellent defense.  

You would've thought that doing play action..... throwing on first down and running on second would gotten you some yardage and surprised the defense.  Toronto came into the game leading the league in defensive rush yards allowed, so it's not like you were gonna dominate their defense by running the ball.

They were too scared to win a football game.  The goal should always be to put the peddle to the metal until you're up two scores in the last 5 minutes,....instead they played stall ball and they got what they deserved.

Thanks for all the stats and trends.

Are we hitting Winnipeg -10 large tonite..

the coaching at the end of that game sums up the cfl. dead league.

I am not on the Bombers....many angles support the Tiger Cats

Yes...something is telling me not to bet Winnipeg....

Early Indigo lines next week

Tiger Cats +8   48  Argonauts

Riders       -4   47  Bombers    

Plays:

1)  Riders +3.....winner

2)  Riders +120...loser

3)  Redblacks +110....1 unit....winner

4)  Alouettes -7..........1 unit

Would lean towards the Lions to get revenge next week in British Columbia if the line is less than 7 points.....if Ford plays next week in Calgary and they are dogs would probably take the Elks, unless the Elks were to have an exceptional game and winning versus the Alouettes tomorrow.  

Indigo lines for next week.

Riders  -4  46   Bombers

Lions   -5   52  Redblacks

T'Cats +7  49  Argonauts 

@Indigo999

 Nice call on Ottawa....onto Montreal tomorrow....

@Indigo999

 You rock brother.

If the Elks were to win tomorrow versus Montreal I will bet them to win the Grey Cup probably getting at least 25 to 1.....if they lose they will probably have to go 5-2 the rest of the way to get to 8-10 on the season, which may be good enough to get into the West Divisonal playoffs......if they win tomorrow, all 5 teams will be within a game of each other in the standings, and if they lose tomorrow they will be two games out.....they play three times against the Stamps and once versus the Roughriders and twice versus Winnipeg  going forward......their final game is versus the Argos who probably will have nothing to play for, so most likely they will need  to go 4-2  in their remaining divisional games to qualify for the playoffs.

The West Division....what a quagmire!  If the Nathan Rourke going forward is what we saw today, which was good, but not exceptional, there is no favorite in the West.  BC doesn't have a defense and not much of a running game.  Running quarterbacks are typically good on the road for their team and the bettors that back them, and I'd expect the Lions to win some road games in the last part of the season.

The Lions I put in the middle, but what in the world are they going to do when Vernon Adams comes back, probably next week?

Zach Callaros has dropped off a cliff in his performance....granted he has a lot of rookie receivers, but it looks like he is washed up, along with BLM of the Tiger Cats.....I put the Bombers down around the bottom of the West along with the Stamps.  I don't think Zach could win you a game, like he might've in the past.....he is now basically a caddy for the running backs of the Bombers.   If the Bombers are smart, they release him after the season, but usually teams hold onto a guy one year too long, rather than doing the Belichick thing of getting rid of a guy one year too early....not that Bill was anything great as a general manager.

I put the Roughriders at the top of the West as their defense is excellent, but as I've mentioned, the Riders seem to find ways to lose football games and their offensive coordinator and qb seem afraid at the end of games, when that is the  time to be bold.

Then there is the Elks, who might've taken too long to figure out Tre Ford should be the quarterback....possibly the best team in the West might not make the playoffs.

The top three teams are all in the East, rated all at least 3 points more than anyone in the West.

I've made my first two regular season NFL bets from a good database angle,.....not all angles will have a readily apparent explanation.  I am ok without having a reason why this has yielded a high percentage of winners.....some of you may not be ok with it, which is fine.  I find that throwing out rationale in sports betting yields better results than having to get my left brain satisfied that "this makes sense".

Big teaching point,.......sports betting doesn't make sense.

The angle is this.....play on an NFL away dog before week 8 whose present opponent's next game will be on Thursday.....63-24-2, 72.4% (+4.4)....45-44 straight up (-0.8).....Miami plays Buffalo in week 2 on Thursday.....VERSUS Buffalo, VERSUS Miami

AD and on:day=Thursday and week<8

Both of these games have  been getting bet down.

Week 1 NFL regular season plays:

1)  Cardinals +6'......1 unit

2)  Jaguars +3'........1 unit

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