CFL Week 16 Thoughts and Pick

Edmonton at Toronto +4.5

Why the hell do the bookmakers keep making Edmonton favorites by more than 3 points week after week?  In their last 9 games Edmonton’s largest margin of victory has been by 4 points, and on the road all season their largest margin is 5.  This is a team that doesn’t know how to win convincingly anymore.  I know the Argos are a horrible 1-9 in their last 10 games but if you look at their play at home they are very competitive.  4 of their last 5 home games this season have been close and have gone down to the wire.  The only exception was 2 weeks ago vs. Montreal and you can’t blame them for that, because Montreal has been bulldozing their way to victory vs. everybody the last month.  All the numbers point to a close game between these 2 teams, so I’ll take the Argos +4.5.

Saskatchewan at Calgary –3.5

Saskatchewan’s been a mystery on the road this season, especially in BC where they are now 0-2, however they did win their last game in Calgary in week 5.  Just a very hard team for me to read.  Calgary on the other hand haven’t played this poorly since starting the season 0-2.  Two weeks ago they won a 1 point game at home vs. Hamilton, then get blown out last Monday in Montreal.  Calgary did not score a touchdown in any of those 2 games.  However, Calgary has been good when it comes to bouncing back from losses this season, as they haven’t lost 2 games in a row since the beginning of the season.

Hamilton at Montreal –12

Montreal is red hot right now.  The Al’s are 7-0 at home, on a 5 game win streak, and have won each of their last 4 games by 19 points or more.  Montreal have also won 10 in a row at home vs. Hamilton.  Montreal might seem like an easy bet, but that –12 line is scary because Hamilton rarely losses by large amounts.  Hamilton have lost by more than 12 points 3 times this season, and 2 of those times were just 13 point losses back in weeks 1 and 4.  However keep in mind 2 of those 3 games where they lost by 12+ points were against Montreal.  Overall a hard game to cap for me.

BC at Winnipeg pk

Next to Montreal, Winnipeg is probably the hottest team in the league right now winning 3 in a row.  BC’s a tough team to read on the road however.  Sometimes they win like they have in Edmonton and Toronto.  Sometimes they’ll lose close games vs. tough competitive teams like Montreal and Saskatchewan.  And sometimes they’ll lose as expected to teams like Hamilton and Calgary.  BC is 5-1 in their last 6 games in Winnipeg.

Conclusion: I’m betting on the worst team in the CFL again…..+4.5 points

While I’m at it, might as well post my NFL picks too.  My NFL season is going a hell of a lot better than my CFL season, so here we go….

Houston at Cincinnati –4

Whether their opponent is good, bad or ordinary, the Bengals always seem to play close games that go down to the wire, that’s why I’m on Houston +4.  Houston lost their first game big against the Jets.  Since then they’ve either won or lost close games that have gone down to the wire.  If you look at their last 2 losses against Jacksonville and Arizona, the Texans were 1 yard away from tying the game up, but either fumbled or just couldn’t convert.  Houston’s done a good job bouncing back from both their losses this season so I’m predicting a Houston cover this week.

Cleveland at Pittsburgh –14

Cleveland is awful.  They have been competitive the last 2 games but Buffalo is playing bad football now, and Cincinnati always plays close games.  Expect the Cleveland team which got blown out the first 3 weeks to show up this week in Pittsburgh.  The Steelers seemed to have bounced back from their slow start, with quality wins vs. San Diego and Detroit.  Pittsburgh have scored 9 touchdowns their last 2 games while Cleveland have yet to score a touchdown on the road this season.  Pittsburgh have won 11 straight games SU vs. Cleveland.

Philadelphia at Oakland +14

Gonna keep on fading the Raiders here.  Oakland has been horrible their last 3 games scoring 16 total points, and losing each of their last 3 games by and average of 27 points.  Philadelphia knows how to win big vs. bad teams this season.  In their 3 victories vs. bad teams this season the Eagles have won each game by at least 19 points. 

Tennessee at New England –9.5

At the beginning of the season the Titans were losing good, but in their last 2 games they’re losing bad.  Tennessee lost by 22 vs. the Colts last week, but it’s that 20 point loss in Jacksonville that really sucked.  New England is starting to play better in their last 3 games winning both home games vs. Atlanta and Baltimore, then played a competitive game vs. a now 5-0 Denver team.  9.5 is steep but the Pats already won one home game by 13 vs. Atlanta, and seeing that the Titans have loss their last 2 games by 20+ points, I’ll give the Pats a whirl