Posted:
#26
Winky ITD went from +672 to +498 overnight
I thought this would get closer to +800 than +400
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
Williams/Wright.....
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by LetMeSpin:
My plays for tonight, unless something changes, will be:
Paul Williams -220 (whatever reduced line is)
with a touch on Paul Williams ITD +292
I saw what I needed to see at the weigh in. Williams looks less emaciated than at 147, Wright looked drained and a touch soft. Winky won't be able to keep pace with Williams, and I can't see him backing him up. His only chance is to come forward and make Williams stop throwing. The first Quintana fight is not close to a blue print for Winky who doesn't have the young legs to circle and dance around Williams for 12 rounds. I expect to see Williams carrying rounds on high activity, and late in the fight Winky could find himself in trouble from stamina issues due to the layoff or fighting at Williams's pace. For what it's worth, I'd say Winky ITD is a donation. He has no voltage and no will even to step on the gas if he had a chance. Paul has a great chin, and there is no chance of him quitting in a fight of this magnitude.
I'm not too interested in the heavyweights, but I don't really see Arreola losing. I'd say the under at +155 is a decent bet. McCline is really bad, and going the distance with Mike Mollo last time out can't be encouraging to his backers. Say what you want about Arreola's conditioning, but you have to know he's more durable (and dangerous) than Mollo.
My plays for tonight, unless something changes, will be:
Paul Williams -220 (whatever reduced line is)
with a touch on Paul Williams ITD +292
I saw what I needed to see at the weigh in. Williams looks less emaciated than at 147, Wright looked drained and a touch soft. Winky won't be able to keep pace with Williams, and I can't see him backing him up. His only chance is to come forward and make Williams stop throwing. The first Quintana fight is not close to a blue print for Winky who doesn't have the young legs to circle and dance around Williams for 12 rounds. I expect to see Williams carrying rounds on high activity, and late in the fight Winky could find himself in trouble from stamina issues due to the layoff or fighting at Williams's pace. For what it's worth, I'd say Winky ITD is a donation. He has no voltage and no will even to step on the gas if he had a chance. Paul has a great chin, and there is no chance of him quitting in a fight of this magnitude.
I'm not too interested in the heavyweights, but I don't really see Arreola losing. I'd say the under at +155 is a decent bet. McCline is really bad, and going the distance with Mike Mollo last time out can't be encouraging to his backers. Say what you want about Arreola's conditioning, but you have to know he's more durable (and dangerous) than Mollo.
LMS, you are probably 100% correct on most of that. While McCline is basically garbage, his recent performance isn't the one that throws up huge red flags. Why would we have to know he is more durable? He was gassed early and dropped by Walker - not exactly a sign of being durable. If this was a pickem' fight we wouldn't even be talking about McCline has having any value. The fact remains that getting McCline at such a huge + money when Arreola continues to come in out of shape is easily a better play than betting Arreola in any fashion. Arreola has been able to use his superior size and power to bail out his lack of boxing ability and stamina. This tried and true bail-out plan won't work against a vet like McCline if he gets into any trouble.
I have zero problem with any Paul Williams play except ITD. It's probably just as unlikely as Wink getting him out of there. Good luck tonight, one of the most interesting fights of the year.
Hot Forum Topics
