Who am I Picking? Floyd Mayweather v Sugar Shane Mosley

I am off to Amsterdam on a Stag/Bachelor party for the weekend and won't even see the fight .

Lets be honest this is the fight we are all looking forward to. I think this fight will come down to which Sugar Shane Mosley turns up? If it's the guy that laboured to a win against Ricardo Mayorga then this will be a very one sided fight. If its the guy that looked a million dollars against Antonio Margarito then we could be in for a classic.

I have already played big SU on Floyd Mayweather -350. The reasons I have done so are as follows:

1) I question Shane's big fight temperament. I feel there is a very good chance the whole buildup and occasion gets to him and Floyd cruises here. This is the biggest fight of Mosley's career with the biggest pressure on him. Now he doesn't look overly effected from watching 24/7 but come fight night that is a different story.

2) Shane Mosley has been out of the ring for 16 months. That is a long time for a 38 year old man. Not only that, but he has to face a fast, super slick, defensively gifted undefeated fighter at the peak of his powers (judging from the Marquez fight). This has to be a massive disadvantage. Yes, I know Floyd was out of the ring for 2 years but Floyd is 33. That's a big difference.

3) To win this fight, I honestly believe Shane Mosley needs a KO. I think even if its relatively close and many of us might even make Shane the winner, but I can't see the judges giving him the fight and I can't see Shane Mosley dominate Mayweather over 12 rounds. The point I am trying to make that if it goes to the scorecards then its almost certain the judges will give it Floyd.

4) I honestly believe Floyd is simply the faster, more skilled fighter of the two. Mosley is naturally the bigger guy and he will try set the pace of the fight and these tactics will play right into Mayweather's hands. Yes, I expect Mosley will test Mayweather at various stages of the fight. Shane is a very good fighter afterall but I think Mayweather will deal with the adversity and show us all why he is so good. Mayweather used the jab very effectively against Marquez. Cotto used the jab very effectively against Mosley in their fight. I expect Floyd to keep Mosley off balance all night long using his Jab, which is very under rated tool in his Arsenal.

I have put a side bet on Mosley +700 for the KO. Just to be ultra safe. I think it's the only way he can win the fight. Alot of good cappers on this site have gone for Floyd on points. That seems to be the obvious pick but -200 is not for me a big difference then      -350. If the occasion, lack of activity gets to Shane then Floyd might even get the late stoppage or Shane gets pulled by his corner. I know alot of people think Mosley +275 is great value but I don't see it for all the reasons above. If people are backing Mosley I would suggest taking the +700 for the KO. I would be beyond stunned if Shane won this on points.

Good Luck to you all on all your plays..

"-200 is not for me a big difference then      -350"


I though I heard it all on Covers, but this one joins the party.

Capper your the kind of guy that doesn't even deserve a response. Seriously I am done with tit for tat with people. This forum should be used as a constructive, informative platform to discuss or debate boxing bets and fights. If you have nothing constructive to add then shoo shoo, just go away.

For me the difference in value (for this fight) is not huge. I stand by that..

LOL you placed a bet on both sides?

yes tyr139 a hedge bet on the Mosley KO as +700 is a good price for this. I don't believe Mosley can win this fight on points. He has power and its not impossible for a KO to happen, but my main recomendation is Floyd SU large.

I dunno, considering my capping record on this site I find it strange people are finding my picks funny? Hedging Mosley +700 is standard when you believe the only way your bet can lose is a Mosley KO. Pretty standard really and I don't get what's so funny??

 

Mack,

Good write up and good luck to you on your bets.

Question: did you watch the "YouTube" video that GMO Navarro posted????  IF so what do you think about the weights, the Oscar issues, the "cherry picking" and Freddy Roach's comments about fighters, fights that were made and others that weren't made by  Team Pac-man?????  Does the video (if you believe the information) shed a new light on the this back and forth debate on who is fighting elite fighters and who is not ?????

 

Really want to hear your opinion

Have a good trip Mack.

There is now a prop for points -15 for Floyd at -115, tough call... I was hoping for about 12 or less.. but since the line has went way up guess it goes up accordingly.

I must now decide Floyd by pts handicap at -115 or Floyd by decision -180

Floyd is now -470 so a big difference between -350 and -470.  (This is at 5dimes).

Decision time this week for time will post it later in the week after thinking it through.

Good luck to you and to everyone regardless of their wagers!
                                       

That's good because I have nothing to say to someone who says "-200 is not for me a big difference then      -350".

How about laying 200 to win 100 or 350 to win 100.
Pretty much the same right?

You see, you may be good at previewing fights but the above statement can't pass on a betting forum, it's a recipe for disaster for anyone who believes it.

You need 110 more winners (at-350 rather than -200) every 1000 bets to break even.
That is a 777-223 record (breakeven at -350 and BIG profits at -200) instead of a 667-333 (which would mean breakeven at -200 and BIG losses at -350) record.
Pretty much the same right? 

I don't have the knowledge to come here and talk boxing I know I don't and I don't do it, I have knowledge in other fields and people across this site know me well, but the pricing statement has nothing to do with boxing.
It is so silly that you could talk about a aussie rules event and I still would laugh at it even though my knowledge there is less than 0.

And yeah, please tell me that this last post wasn't constructive.

Tenniscapper, I am not going to talk numbers with you. I promised people I would never talk about the amounts to bet, what I bet etc etc. You make good points and they are correct, but what I am referring in this case to this the amount of money being put on and the VALUE of betting -350 for the SU inside of taking -200 for the points in this fight alone. For most other fights there is normally a far bigger difference between picking the points win and picking the SU for a big price favourite and this is what I mean about value.

For example (and this is an example not the amount of money I have put on). I would feel there is far more Value in betting 100,000 dollars to win 28,500 Straight up then there is betting 100,000 to win 50,000. What I am referring to is risk versus reward. Trying to pick the best value play, with less risk but still a decent reward -> This is the point I am trying to get across.

So for me and I did say this "for me". There is not much difference in winning 28,500k compared to 50,000k. Ok, who wouldn't want to win an extra 21,500k (or $21.50 depending on your bankroll) but when you add everything up and you calculate all the variables, the real value in this fight is to take Floyd straight up.

For other bettors it may be completely different. You can put 10 dollars @ +700 Mosley KO and enjoy the fight. But alot of people bet on boxing to make serious money. For me making money is about timing. Know when there is value and know when there is not. Considering in this fight, I can't see how -200 is good value when you can get -350 and not have to sweat nearly as much on the outcome.

Now Floyd aint -350 anymore but he was and I'm pretty sure I posted to take Floyd -350 on this site not too long ago. I really don't want to go back and forth with you about this. I want this to be a boxing thread so please keep it at that..

whoops I should have added is betting 100,000 to win 50,000 for Floyd to win on points

Mack knows his boxing and this strategy, in my opinion, makes sense.

1.  We all know there is a difference between -350 and -200.  But at -350 you get Floyd by any verdict (KO, DQ, decision).  What he is saying is -200 is a lot for a prop bet, and he is correct in stating this.  Now Floyd is closer to 5 to 1, so the -350, I think, is a good price.

2.  Hedging with Shane by KO at +700 is smart - I don't think it should be viewed as "betting both sides".  He is covering himself.  You have to bet a very small amount there for insurance.

Just my two cents.  Should be a VERY interesting bout.

as Rich pointed out Floyd is now -470 in places. The value I have been referring too is now gone. Only the really big hitters can play the -470. Maybe its best just to enjoy this fight and have a small bet for interest.

Opening line at a few books was Floyd -210 or -215
certainly there was value there
but its long gone

Floyd by decision is the most likely outcome, but -200 is a lot of juice for any prop in boxing

Only time I do that on a prop is when I am SURE a guy is going to get smoked in a few rounds

wow ghost really! -215...That is awesome value. The guys on that are sitting pretty right now..

it was months ago and it was not there very long
I only know two guys sitting on that - they are in a REAL nice position

Certainly standard, have been very successful making the same sort of plays for quite some time.  Gl 

You clearly don't understand the point he was trying to make. OBVIOUSLY price wise there is a huge difference between -350 and -200. You need to look further into his comments before you attack the guy without having a reason to do it.

He was trying to state that VALUE wise in THIS fight, it is not worth it to take the KO line at -200 when the ML is at -350. Don't think there is anything whatsoever wrong with his statement. You attacking him because of his statement is like saying you should always lay 1.5 in hockey/baseball compared to taking the ML. There is a REASON why the  -1.5 can be +250 when the ML is -110. One bet has a much higher probability of hitting then the other.

THAT is the point Mack was trying to make, and if you can't understand this it's a damn shame.

Mack, on this site, you are one of the cappers whose opinion I value. Good luck with your plays. IMO something seems fishy to me on this fight. The fight is clearly Floyd's biggest challenge at this weight, so why the huge price tag (-470). He has beat up on Marquez, Hatton, Oscar, Baldomir, Zab, Mitchell at 147 or better. Now the more important question is what Shane shows up on Sat night? Does the Shane of last Jan show up and give us another huge performance? or does Shane get old after 16 months off? I think that is the biggest question in the fight. Either way I cannot pass up on taking Shane +370 right now. I like to pick spots with real live dogs and in this situation you can risk 270 to win 1000 sounds like a bargain to me. Good luck with your plays guys, with limited risk for high reward, Im on Shane 400 to win 1480.

Great insight Mack. If I can get similar lines I will follow your logic thought it looks to be -470 just about everywhere now and I don't have props up yet. 

Nah i got you, thats not a bad idea with that line.

Hey everybody! Call me crazy but I think Shane has a better chance of winning a dec than by KO. I favor Floyd by dec, but Nazim Richardson(Shane's trainer) is the ultimate strategist. One of his strategies is getting Shane away from loading up on one punch . By not fully flexing his fist and arm, Shane can increase the speed of his punches and also give himself better stamina. Floyd at times is overly defensive and can lose rounds on inactivity.

Of course Mosley has the power to hurt Mayweather, but can he stop him? I don't think so. I do think he can intimidate Floyd into being even more defensive than he already is, further increasing Mosley's chance of winning a dec.

Last I checked, Mosley by dec was +950. Needless to say I hedged my bet.

Hey Mack I read on Covers that if you lose its back to a job for you. I mean no disrespect, but this is not the fight to bet the farm on.

Alot of people idolize Mayweather, but even he has weaknesses. The biggest of which is an overreliance on the same potshots: lead right, leapin left hook, shoulder roll followed by counter right. When's the last time you saw Mayweather throw a true combination?

Agree on this one Mack, I think Shane gets smoked and looks every bit his age

I like them both a lot but I have no idea how Shane wins this short of a lucky shot, or Mayweather sustaining an injury early in the fight. 

This is one of those fights that you just sit back and enjoy.  Horrible line IMO

Ahhh who am I kidding; I will more than likely get some action on it