Weekly Plays Thread (Pac Man Returns)

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: +2.52 Units
2007 to date: +20.23 units (+$2,023)

Still waiting on all of the smaller cards and undercard lines for the two big cards to drop, only down on a Pac-Man prop as of now.

1 Unit on Pacquiao Inside the Distance (+128)

Here are my thoughts on the Pac-Barrera fight from the other thread when others were saying that Barrera had some value.

Guys are we talking about the same Barrera?

The same Barrera that I won money betting against in his last fight with Marquez where he was beaten up badly late and contemplated retirement afterwards?

The same Barrera who went down to the wire with Rocky Juarez in his two fights before that?  ROCKY JUAREZ!!!

The same Barrera who was absolutely destroyed by Manny in 2003.

Manny systematically demolished Barrera back in 2003 and it should be no different this time around.  Barrera might win a couple of the early rounds with his boxing ability for a last hurrah, but as you saw against Marquez last time out he will eventually slow down and show his wear and tear.  Manny may even stop him earlier this time around. 

If you are thinking of betting Barrera here I strongly advise you to watch his 2003 fight with Pac-Man, a Pacquiao who has gotten even better since and a Barrera who has gotten worse.  I wouldn't bet Barrera even at +500.

My feelings on the fight haven't changed.  Barrera can use the distraction excuse all he wants for his 1st effort against Pac-Man, but the bottom line is Barrera has slipped since the first fight and Pacquiao has improved, so if Pacquiao destroyed him last time, what happens this time out?

This fight is being made from a business standpoint, not a boxing standpoint.  Usually rematches are made due to controversy or the first fight being close, but neither is the case here.  Top Rank and Golden Boy kissed and made up, then decided that this was a natural fit to signal the end of their cold war.  They knew the fight would make money because of diehard Manny and Barrera fans so they stuck it on PPV with a lackluster undercard.  I will be tuning into this one online and watching Showtime's card on the tube.

I went ahead and played the under at 5dimes for Pac-Barrera.  The number has moved to -110 or so everywhere, so I figured I might as well go ahead and tap it.

1.45 units on Pacquiao-Barrera Under 10.5 rounds (+105)

I just don't see how this fight sees the second half of the 11th round.  Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Pacquiao stops him even earlier this time, I'll say round 9.  Barrera fights in spots now and Pacquiao will not let him rest with his workrate.  I can't help but wonder if Rudy Perez's absence from Barrera's corner was Perez's way of telling Marco that the ride is over.

The line is still +107 at 5dimes.  Thegreek isn't a bad book for boxing, it's the only other book I use in addition to 5dimes.

I would be leery of that Khan over.  Khan is really looking to impress here off of the Limond fight.  I think that he also wants to make a statement by stopping Lawton earlier than Thaxton was able to since he is gunning for Thaxton in the near future.

I like both Vs. Chalks, AV has a suspect Chin, and Luis has a suspect Resume`. I'm playing "Pac-Man-335" ITD, & the LOW, just like Fbs did above. Prolly gonna take HBO & Show' chalks as well. More against no-time McCline (SP looked better than I expect for so many flight, I mean fight delays), and then Luevenao(sp).

I'd like to play Kali, but I see no line. My anti-boy "touch of sleep" is (over) due to forget his alarm clock.

GLA!
bigeiii

BTW: did you look at my post in our school's official game thread Fbs? Should give you a troublesome hint on what to do. (LOW)

GLA!
bigeiii

Threw "Keptin" Kirk's fav' boxer in there as well. Though some will beat "Khhhhhhaaaaannnnn!" on his way up.

GLA!
bigeiii

Vs. got their $'s worth tonite. Pretty entertaining card for such heavy favs. The Montiel fight was much better than expected. I'm a little bit surprised Montiel pulled that out, I thought Luis had him in some legit trouble in the middle of that one. Both chalks win, as WA got his Chin checked, it got a F+ for letter-grade.

bigeiii

going with pacquiao here for monetary reasons, going against him for sentimental thoughts... if he wins, he might hallucinate again and might run as president of the philippines...  he's a complete idiot! just box and stop dreaming of being a politician!

Meaning: Pac-Man wins on some kinda a Stoppage, & he does not win on the Cards Skillz78. No such thing BTW as an asinine ?.

Adding Pascal, he is better than I had thought, much better by the looks of what I saw on Bristol2 last time out. Rob Calloway wins on his homecourt, b/c that's what Rob "I have too much Experience" Calloway does.

Sammy Pete & outta-time may be OFF, due to 'roids.

Took Brad Pryce as well.

I'm playing the aforementioned Heavy upset, but the line has moved nearly +100 in my favor, so I'm gonna lay out to see if it climbs any more.

GLA!
bigeiii

Yeah, 5dimes classifies their ko/tko/dq prop a little different then others.  They have "Inside the Distance" which technically covers all three of those outcomes as well as the fight being stopped early due to a accidental cut and sent to the cards.  Their decision props are different also, they have "by 12 round decision" or "by 10 round decision" whatever the distance may be.  On pretty much all other betting sites if a fight is stopped early due to accidental head butt and goes to the cards, the decision prop is a winner, not the case at 5dimes.

Just took a look at it.  I don't bet football, I do keep up with the spreads through wagerline though and I think the under is probably the way to go.  I saw where you were thinking about taking my alma mater on the spread, I would have a hard time betting Clemson as a fave this week against anyone.  I keep having flashbacks to last year when one team (VT) shut down our offense and then everyone thereafter followed suit.

By the way I think I posted last week that it was coming down to the wire whether I won some cash in the year long Wagerline baseball contest.  Ended up closing strong on the last day of the season and took home a free $400.

Other plays....

.25 of a unit Santos ITD (+508) vs Rosales
1 unit on Andrade ITD (+124) vs Mack
.50 of a unit on under 7.5 rounds (+120) in Meehan-Williamson
.50 of a unit on over 8.5 rounds (+155) in Brown-Calloway
1 unit on Bojado (+115) vs Forbes

3 fight parlay:
.75 of a unit to win .81
Pac (-340) vs Barrera
Santos (-340) vs Rivera
Golota (-420) vs McBride

Yesterday I was wishing that I was still betting at Sportsbook when I heard where the numbers opened up on Andrade and D. Santos.  By the time they made their way to thegreek and 5dimes they had shot through the roof.  I can't believe that I am trusting a dime with Golota.  I have never bet on him in the past but McBride, come on, surely Golota won't have a melt down against him.

An interesting and unexpected twist, looks like Bojado is back to his old eating habits.  He came in 3 pounds over the weight limit, I am not sure how this is going to effect the fight happening.  One of the things I liked was Bojado's size advantage, but I am not liking this.

I agry & added that KM "Touch of Sleep" UP as well. Added the foul-Pole vs. KM, who checked in at a Career high in Weight.

GLA!
bigeiii

Adding Sammy Pete ITD as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

You must have misread, I bet the under.  I would question a decision to lay any chalk on on two heavies who have each been stopped inside of 4 rounds twice.

Meaning the over in the fight.

.25 of a unit Santos ITD (+508) vs Rosales