Weekly Plays

Hey FB,  looking forward to a nice slate of fights this weekend.  Really excited about tonight's main event on Showtime.  I think we're both on the right side of this one.  Molitor is slick, there's no doubt, but I feel like Cabellero will put enough pressure on him to frustrate him during the crucial middle rounds and take him out of his game.  I've seen Molitor cut a number of times too (especially in his generously scored UD over Beltra), so there's a chance it ends early if Caballero really lays into him.  The ITD prop is down to +275 on 5d, from +332 earlier this afternoon, so that's encouraging.  I like the Bautista pick too.  Surprised to see that one sitting at +120 right now. 

Good Luck FB, against you tonight but eagerly waiting to see what you do with tomorrow night's main event.

The home advantage could definitely prove to be a factor, see the recent Andrade-Bute fight.  I just don't think that Molitor is ready for what he is facing tonight, even though he has been winning clearly against fringe opposition there have even been moments in those where things got a bit rocky.  Like I said the kid does have skills, but CC is really hard to fight.  Good point about the Cordoba fight, but I think that CC has grown a lot since then and Molitor is easier to touch up then Cordoba.  When CC seems focused and determined on the task at hand he is very good, hard to believe he won't be up for tonight.

Agree about the Hatton fight, I played Paulie by decision at thegreek at +275 instead of the 5dimes version just because I think a cut could come into play as a result of a clash of heads.

Does anyone know if the South African card happened today?

Good to hear that we are on the same page here.  I think Molitor will look good early, but as the fight goes on things will only get worse. Props to Showtime for picking this one up, definitely a matchup that needed to be on the air in the states.

A couple of more plays....

1.3 units on Paulie by decision (+275)

.40 of a unit on Caballero ITD (+275)

How is this for a longshot? LOL.
.10 of a unit to win 13.82
Caballero ITD (+275)
Paulie by 12rd decision (+321)
Kirkland (-600)
Bautista (-700)
Braehmer (+110)
Asikainen (-165)
DLH (-225)
Froch (-280)

I hear ya man.  So are you taking on the winner of Hatton-Paulie in 09?  Yep, there is nothing like boxing conditioning.  It really grows on you doesn't it?  Even skipping rope becomes fun, that is except for the shin splints when you start.

Think the Citadel can take your Gators this weekend?  LOL.

Forgot one.

1 unit to win 3.2
Kirkland (-600)
Bautista (-700)
Asikainen (-165)
DLH (-225)
Froch (-280)

At this moment in time, I'd be more in the heavyweight division. . . Hell, I have two weeks of experience under my belt now, I may have a shot to break top 100 heavys by next weekend

Agreed though. . .  I haven't jumped rope since elementary school, but I don't seem to mind it now that I have basically "gotten it."  I can actually do it faster now than I thought I would.

If you got any tips on how to not feel drained, I'd appreciate it. . .  I went to watch the Gators fry the Chickens last weekend, and even though I drank water all Sunday and Monday, I still felt weak as hell Monday night, and cramped up in my side. . .  sucked. Gloves felt like they were 32oz. Only day I've really felt like that though, and half the battle physically that I've overcome so far has to do with mind over matter.

LOL, I love it.  Welcome to the big show kid.  If someone would have watched that fight not knowing the odds they would have said that Molitor was a 20-1 dog.  Boo yah.  That was a lot easier then I ever expected. 

1.75 units on Caballero (+160)
.40 of a unit on Caballero ITD (+275)

I'll take that start to the weekend, plus the scratch off card gets started.  Talk about freezing under the lights,  the great white north was friendly tonight.  Anyone ever hear any news on the South African card that was supposed to be today?

Great night FB!  Good luck the rest of the weekend.  Haven't heard anything about the SA card, which should certainly be over by now considering it's 7:30 AM there. 

Nice wins FB!!

https://www.dispatch.co.za/article.aspx?id=273026

This is in regards to the African card.

I also had a wager on Navarette and for the same reasons.

Well I got no position on Hatton-Malignaggi,
but the Juergen play comes up trumps, so says my knucklebones...

How the Fuck does Navarette, who go's the distance with Linares, get decked 3 times and knocked out in 1 round by a guy with 5 KO's?

 

AFRICAN CARD

 

That's how....

Sounds a bit funny, and not in the hah-hah kind of way. Shit like that makes boxing great and shitty at the same time. Who you got tonight?

Your guess is as good as mine.  A loss wouldn't have surprised me, but when I saw that result on boxrec I must say I was.  Doesn't seem that logical.  Strange stuff, but what happens in Africa stays in Africa.  Maybe the ref got stiffed on his money like the fighters initially did and he was the one taking Navarette down with a steel chair.

Dumb bet I guess.

Well with today goes most of the profits from last night.  Great call to those on Garay, it sounded like he took the fight and won decisively (including on the cards) which is tough to do in Germany.  Maybe now they will at least change Braehmer's ridiculous nickname.  I knew Bautista wasn't that good as evidenced by what I said about his chin in my under play, but I sure thought he would get by Ruiz.  What an idiot I am for putting him into that parlay.  So the fight was only 8 rounds uh?  I guess I win my under, jk.  Rough afternoon and early part of the night.

.50 of a unit on Navarette (+550)
1.25 units on Braehmer (+115)
.10 of a unit on the astro-odds parlay
.1 unit to win 3.2
Kirkland (-600)
Bautista (-700)
Asikainen (-165)
DLH (-225)
Froch (-280)
2 units on under 9.5 rounds (+110) in Bautista-Ruiz

Still up right at a unit for the week heading to the rest of the night.

Played a few more....

1.60 unit on fight margin less than 3 points after RD. 3 (-160) (Lederman)

1 unit to win 1.15
Fight margin less than 3 points after round 3 (-160)
Kirkland ITD (-310)

And a few throwaway bets....
.25 of a unit on Paulie by split decision (+1400)
.20 of a unit on Paulie-Ricky Draw (+2800)
.25 of a unit on Paulie ITD (Cut play here) (+1560)