Weekend Picks (9/12-9/13)

Question

2007: &#x2B;12.45 units2008: &#x2B;17.285 unitsSergio Mora vs. Vernon ForrestMora (&#x2B;110) (Sportsbook)1 unitIt&#x27;s not the most exciting matchup, but a Mora play presents a good money-making opportunity.  Forrest is past his prime, and he was consistently beat to the punch in the first matchup with Mora a few months ago.  Forrest seemed to be having a career resurgence when he won a wide decision against Carlos Baldomir in July 2007, but that may have been a bit of a mirage as Baldomir proved to be a shot fighter when he lost to Saul Roman later in the year.  Prior to the Baldomir fight, Forrest won a very controversial decision over a faded Ike Quartey.  I see Forrest as being at the end of his rope, and there&#x27;s no reason to think that his performance against Mora was just an "off night."  Instead, I expect Mora to have greater confidence from the get-go, and he&#x27;ll take the fight to Forrest in what should be a wide decision win for the Latin Snake.

A2C · Answer

2007: &#x2B;12.45 units2008: &#x2B;17.285 unitsSergio Mora vs. Vernon ForrestMora (&#x2B;110) (Sportsbook)1 unitIt&#x27;s not the most exciting matchup, but a Mora play presents a good money-making opportunity.  Forrest is past his prime, and he was consistently beat to the punch in the first matchup with Mora a few months ago.  Forrest seemed to be having a career resurgence when he won a wide decision against Carlos Baldomir in July 2007, but that may have been a bit of a mirage as Baldomir proved to be a shot fighter when he lost to Saul Roman later in the year.  Prior to the Baldomir fight, Forrest won a very controversial decision over a faded Ike Quartey.  I see Forrest as being at the end of his rope, and there&#x27;s no reason to think that his performance against Mora was just an "off night."  Instead, I expect Mora to have greater confidence from the get-go, and he&#x27;ll take the fight to Forrest in what should be a wide decision win for the Latin Snake.

19ecoboy79 · Answer

I agree whit you.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ll take Mora and Marquez.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;A parlay here would be fine.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;GL

SportsFan8890 · Answer

Hate Mora and I think in the first fight, eventhough Vernon looked slow and old, he was still winning rounds early and then just faded. Think he underestimated Sergio and that probably won&#x27;t happen again. Think all of those Contender guys are absolutely a joke

A2C · Answer

Hector Velazquez vs. Elio RojasRojas (&#x2B;135)1 unitNothing has changed for me as far as my take on this fight from when it was originally scheduled in January, although the odds are a little better on Rojas this time around.  Rojas was royally screwed in his only professional loss to Gamiel Diaz last July, which came by means of a controversial split decision.  Coming into this fight against the solid Velasquez after such long layoff would ordinarily present some concern, but doesn&#x27;t worry me very much in this instance.  Rojas is 7 years younger than his opponent and comes into this fight with a major chip on his shoulder.  Velasquez, meanwhile, blew out his last 2 opponents (who, by the way, had lost a combined 6 out of their last 10 fights and who share a joint 29-29-1 record).  The elder Mexican faces an entirely different type of opponent in Rojas, who has everything on the line in this title fight and who is by all measures still coming into this own. Velasquez has a lot of miles on him at this stage of his career, having fought profesionally for 15 years.  He does have the superior pedigree, having shared the ring with both of the Pacquiao brothers, as well as Rockey Juarez (and Robie Peden, a name that will come up frequently this weekend).  However, he&#x27;s lost neary every time he&#x27;s stepped up, minus his TD against Mario Santiago a little over a year ago.  Still, I think the younger Rojas will not only be the busier man in this fight, but that he will also be the man landing cleaner, harder shots.  I look for Velasquez to put forth a stront effort, but in the end, I think it will be Rojas&#x27; hand that gets raised.  If Rojas can really  turn up the heat, there&#x27;s also a chance he could win this one ITD somewhere in the latter rounds.

A2C · Answer

Nate Campbell vs. Joan GuzmanGuzman by Decision (&#x2B;110) (Sportsbook)1 unitGoing ahead and posting this one now while the prop is still at plus money, as it&#x27;s hard to see where the line is headed as we get closer to Saturday.  There&#x27;s been a good showing of money for Campbell during the last few days, but I have a great feeling about Guzman here.  Without a doubt, this is the marquee matchup of the weekend.   Be back with the full analysis.

Coweringbeef · Answer

I am tipping Pele Reid to upset Sam Sexton.

The odds are set as though this were a long bout but in fact this is a three rounder. Reid is 35 facing a 24 year old which would normally count for something, but not in a three rounder. Pele has 17 KO’s within his 19 wins while Sam has 2 KO’s within his 7 wins. Now, in a three rounder, who has the edge?

Strangely, between the two men are a total of six loses, 5 belonging to Reid, 1 to Sam, and all of them are TKO loses!

Reid is an inch taller, stronger looking, and…um…black.

I am tipping David Ferguson to win.

I am really confident about his one, as confident as I was when I said Khan would win against Prescott! Doesn’t that make you feel like betting?

And less confidently, Lee Swaby to win

Coweringbeef · Answer

Forget Lee Swaby, at these odds it ain&#x2019;t worth it. Gotta get nearly even money on this one.

Zumbize · Answer

Very interested to see what you&#x27;ve got here. Been leaning toward Nate for months, but a little nagging voice saying that Guzman won&#x27;t wear down has kept me from dropping anything yet. This fight looks like a darkhorse FOTY candidate to me.

N_J · Answer

in April I caught a prop &#x27;leader after 3 loses or draw&#x27; on Calzaghe/Hopkins, figuring I could do no worse than &#x2B;270 on Hopkins. As luck would have it, I got &#x2B;270 on Calzaghe.The same thing has happened for Mora/Forrest: leader after 3 loses or draw &#x2B;140. Either guy &#x2B;140 is a great bet, my prediction is Forrest is ahead after 3 (which ive also bet on), but then tires as Mora picks up steam, and loses the decision. Even if Mora is ahead after 3, Id still take forrest &#x2B;140I have many other plays posted on the home forum, but this is the kind of prop im always looking out for.

Fullbrights · Answer

Nice take on Rojas A2c, by the time I saw it copied at my books the odds had flip flopped.  Is it a 12 rounder or a 10 rounder, I might have overlooked it.

weepaul · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by A2C] Nate Campbell vs. Joan GuzmanGuzman by Decision (&#x2B;110) (Sportsbook)1 unitGoing ahead and posting this one now while the prop is still at plus money, as it&#x27;s hard to see where the line is headed as we get closer to Saturday.  There&#x27;s been a good showing of money for Campbell during the last few days, but I have a great feeling about Guzman here.  Without a doubt, this is the marquee matchup of the weekend.   Be back with the full analysis.  &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]How can Guzman be almost 4 pounds over in a division he has never fought in. I have a HUGE wager on Guzman and this news Fucking sucks balls!!!&#xD;&#xA;Good luck all!!

NJDevils · Answer

I would take Guzman in that fight&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;In the PPV fights that I am not paying for I will take Forrest and JMM&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;The only way I see JMM losing is if he left too much of himself in there with Manny (which may have happened) but i think he is too good for Casamayor

Fullbrights · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by weepaul]  How can Guzman be almost 4 pounds over in a division he has never fought in. I have a HUGE wager on Guzman and this news Fucking sucks balls!!!&#xD;&#xA;Good luck all!!  [/Quote]Yeah, I was in shock when I saw that.  That is a lot of weight to lose.

Zumbize · Answer

I&#x27;m seeing that Joan has one hour to lose three pounds. Not sure yet if the fight will happen without weight being made (although if I know Nate, it should still happen...)

Fullbrights · Answer

I like this prop that 5dimes does for these HBO matchups.  I cashed in on it in Clottey-Judah.  I may have to go the same route here.

Zumbize · Answer

Guzman fails to make weight, titles won&#x27;t be on the line. Fight still seems likely to go on.

CW123 · Answer

When did Baldo lose to Saul Roman??? Are you even talking about the right fighter????

walktheline · Answer

I don&#x27;t understand the Guzman love. Superior boxer. Faster. Better pedigree. Seems too easy, right?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;However, he comes in overweight. Much smaller fighter taking a step up. Campbell just beat a guy that looked unbeatable. He outworked Diaz when nobody thought he could. Was that his one lucky fight? My guess is no.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Read the story. Working at a grocery store and takes up boxing at 24. Grinds it out and becomes world champ against the odds. He didn&#x27;t beat Diaz via a lucky punch. Beat him with effort. Why won&#x27;t he do it again against a lesser fighter? When a fighter feels (here comes the cliche.. "disrespected" they have a huge edge. If you need an example, see Campbell/Diaz or more recently Cotto/Margarito. Campbell finally gets some respect after stopping Guzman in the later rounds. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I don&#x27;t have a problem with a Guzman via points prop. Not a bad bet, just not the best value here. Also, which fighter has fought the better competition? On what type of stage? All signs point to the hungrier, bigger, stronger, disrespected fighter that has fought better opponents. The best part is that he isn&#x27;t the one laying chalk.

A2C · Answer

Sorry about that.  You&#x27;re right.  I had the Ouma-Roman fight confused in my mind with Baldo&#x27;s matchup against Luciano Perez.  Both were on Telefutura a little while back.  Baldo looked terrible in his bout with Perez, and was lucky to escape with a majority decision.

CW123 · Answer

Ok understandable. I thought for a second I was losing it

Fullbrights · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by Coweringbeef]  &#xD;&#xA;I am tipping Pele Reid to upset Sam Sexton.&#xD;&#xA;The odds are set as though this were a long bout but in fact this is a three rounder. Reid is 35 facing a 24 year old which would normally count for something, but not in a three rounder. Pele has 17 KO&#x2019;s within his 19 wins while Sam has 2 KO&#x2019;s within his 7 wins. Now, in a three rounder, who has the edge? &#xD;&#xA;Strangely, between the two men are a total of six loses, 5 belonging to Reid, 1 to Sam, and all of them are TKO loses!&#xD;&#xA;Reid is an inch taller, stronger looking, and&#x2026;um&#x2026;black.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I am tipping David Ferguson to win.&#xD;&#xA;I am really confident about his one, as confident as I was when I said Khan would win against Prescott! Doesn&#x2019;t that make you feel like betting?&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;And less confidently, Lee Swaby to win  [/Quote]What was the deal with that card?  Was it a tournament format or something?  From the looks of it on boxrec Sexton won it all since he won three fights.  It&#x27;s pretty tough to bet three round fights with relative unknowns.

cashaholic · Answer

take forrest ml

Fullbrights · Answer

Great call on Rojas A2C, well done buddy.

A2C · Answer

Hector Velazquez vs. Elio RojasRojas (&#x2B;135)1.35 units Had a great feeling on this one.  I think it closed around -150 for Rojas, so this is a great example of jumping on those early favorable lines before the market corrects itself.

A2C · Answer

Sergio Mora vs. Vernon ForrestMora (&#x2B;110) (Sportsbook)1 unit  Actually, someone should shoot me for betting on Mora.

Weekend Picks (9/12-9/13)

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