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Vazquez/Marquez III, Showtime March 1st discussion

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Posted: #1
I didn't see a thread started on this already, so if there was and I just missed it, sorry about that.
 
Anyways, does anyone have a good feel for anything in this fight?  I think there's value in Marquez, just because this fight is probably going to be yet another war and I can't lay chalk (anymore) when anything can happen like that, but I know that it has moved up to the weight of 122lbs, which Vazquez says he feels more comfortable at, and it's his "natural weight." 
 
From what I've read, both fighters are still going to go balls to the wall, with Vazquez stating that it will be the fight of the year, and Marquez saying it will be an all out war.  Marquez feels slighted from last time because he felt the fight was stopped too fast, and we all know how fun the first two fights were to watch.
 
Current lines as of this morning (5Dimes)
 
Vazquez -170
Marquez +150
 
Total set at 7.5
Over +115
Under -135
 
I've been looking forward to this fight ever since the second Vazquez won the last.  I've been thinking I'm probably just going to sit back and watch with no $$ on it, but I'm still curious as to what everyone here thought about it. 
 
Thanks guys
 
 
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Posted: #2
I might be on that over. I probably won't be analyzing this one until fight week, and picking until after the weigh-in.
 
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Posted: #3
G8RB8,
 
Little off your topic, but boxing related and I had to tell someone.
 
Our host at the LV Hilton just landed us 4 tickets for Pacquiao / JM Marquez @ Mandalay on the 15th. My family owns a construction company and every three years The LV Convention Center hosts the CON-EXPO in the middle of March. We take some of our top guys out for a little R&R . Just so happens that I was lucky enough to see Pacquiao/Morales 1 last Expo. Let me preface by saying Pacquiao has been one of my favorites, long before the trilogy with EM. I'm glad to see Manny fighting JMM again. He needs this for his own conscience. Notice how he waited a couple years to take this rematch. Those first three knockdowns in round 1 of their first go around is the only positive he could take away from that fight. He was lucky to get a draw. I don't think it was coincidence that he's waited this long to fight him again. Would've liked to see this one about two years ago, nonetheless, it should be exciting. I'm not sure if Marquez's skills are diminishing at 34  but IMO if Manny tries to "box" him he'll lose.  I love Manny but I don't love him at - 175 , I'm looking strongly at Marquez here.
 
Oh btw, It's almost impossible that Vazquez/Marquez won't live up to the hype. Can't wait.... 
 
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Posted: #4
LMS - I've just been so antsy for this fight that I couldn't wait to talk about it one more week.  This fight weekend doesn't seem all that great, so I figured I'd get a head start. 
 
I was actually thinking about taking both fighters to win by decision, because I could see them both being 7 to 1 or higher.  Will be interesting to see what those lines come out at.
 
Pinny - Nice hit on the tix.  I'd love to be able to go to a Pac man fight of this magnitude.  I've ALWAYS liked Pac-man, but I'm having a tough decision with this one too.  I think he's been smart in not making the rematch until this long, he got a few more fights in him, and JMM could probably only diminish his skills.  That first fight was such a great fight to watch, I'm hoping this one will be at least half as good as that one. 
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Posted: #5
they had the 1st 2 fights on last week on sho2...
showtime is great for boxing fans think of all the great fights they have on for free if u have showtime.
 
corrales castillo 1 was free
these 2 bouts...free
every month good fights and no need to jam every good one on PPV like HBO does
 
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Posted: #6
NJD - they are replaying both of them again the Friday before the fight, Feb 29th.
 
I freaking love Showtime. 
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Posted: #7
Vasquez is a bit bigger, and definitely stronger, while Marquez, whom I admire greatly by the way, along with big brother JMM, is the better boxer.  To me it seems this easy to breakdown:
Small ring = Vasquez by KO 
Larger ring = Marquez. 
 
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Posted: #8
G8..i tivod them ..gonna transfer them to DVD.
 
that 2nd fight was unreal
 
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Posted: #9
larry, do you think a bigger ring matters? i think pride gets in the way and its a fight again
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

G8..i tivod them ..gonna transfer them to DVD.
 
that 2nd fight was unreal

 

The fact that it was less than 6 rds, and considered by many the fight of the year speaks volumes.

I could watch it over and over.  Incredible it was. 

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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by NJDevils:

larry, do you think a bigger ring matters? i think pride gets in the way and its a fight again

NJ, Honestly, I strongly believe it does.  Marquez is a master boxer.  He picked Vasquez apart in the first fight, he boxed beautifully.  He never would have even tasted canvas had Vasquez not held and hit him.  He was able to stick and move with ease.

They fought the second fight in a phone booth.  The ring was sooo small.  Marquez was always one step backward from touching the ropes, he had nowhere to move.  It might have made him a bit nervous; took him out of his gameplan.  Now, don't get me wrong, Marquez can bang, but that's not his game, and he has no chance if he bangs with Vasquez toe to toe.

 

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by LarryParker:

  He never would have even tasted canvas had Vasquez not held and hit him. 

   That's a bit laughable,  I see a big Marquez fan.  How is throwing a right hand(fell short) over a jab then coming up with a left hookercut, holding..that's the first time anyone has said this 

 
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Posted: #13
Just my two cents.  I don't think it would matter if the ring was 50x50, these guys will be throwing and connecting with heavy leather.  Like you said LarryParker he did box well in the first fight, but I actually thought Vazquez was coming on when he quit on his stool (I gave him the 7th).  I have to agree punchmaster on your KD point though, that KD was not because of any illegal tactic.

This is a tough fight to bet.  The best way to bet may be to take both fighters at + money by KO because I don't think you will see a decision here.  A buddy of mine said it best when he said it's tough to back Marquez in this fight because although he has been able to bust Vazquez up he has never been able to really hurt him bad, whereas Israel has seriously hurt Raffy each fight.
 
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Posted: #14
damn Vasquez is the fav I was hoping he would be a dog
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by punchmaster:

   That's a bit laughable,  I see a big Marquez fan.  How is throwing a right hand(fell short) over a jab then coming up with a left hookercut, holding..that's the first time anyone has said this 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=69q-eRYDnAI

Laughable???  Pause at 1:24/1:25.  Plainly obvious Vasquez slips a jab and holds on to Marquez' left, creating the leverage.  Now, I'm not calling Vasquez a cheater, but HE DID HOLD AND HIT.  And had it not been for that, he may have never scored the KD. 

I'm a Marquez fan, yes, enough to know that he is better served sticking and moving his way to a win.   

 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

Just my two cents.  I don't think it would matter if the ring was 50x50, these guys will be throwing and connecting with heavy leather.  Like you said LarryParker he did box well in the first fight, but I actually thought Vazquez was coming on when he quit on his stool (I gave him the 7th).  I have to agree punchmaster on your KD point though, that KD was not because of any illegal tactic.

This is a tough fight to bet.  The best way to bet may be to take both fighters at + money by KO because I don't think you will see a decision here.  A buddy of mine said it best when he said it's tough to back Marquez in this fight because although he has been able to bust Vazquez up he has never been able to really hurt him bad, whereas Israel has seriously hurt Raffy each fight.

Yes, Vasquez was surging at the time he quit.  I was worried I was going to lose my bet on Marquez, I could sense the Momentum shifting.  Vasquez has an underrated size and strength advantage over Marquez.  Hard to imagine 4 lbs. making a difference (Marquez is coming from 118 to 122, someone correct me on this) but in this case it might.  I can't bet this fight, I don't want to see my boy, Marquez, get KO'd again.  I'm going to watch and pray.   

 
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Posted: #18
I really think these two fights have taken so much more out of Marquez than Vazquez. It's hard to see him lasting 12 rounds.
 
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Posted: #19
I'm taking the over 7.5 rds for +105.
 
Taking advantage of a low total, and the fact that Marquez knows the only way he can win is to box, and not trade blows with Vazquez. If he lets himself get caught up in the drama again, and go for an all out war, it's suicide. The first fight looked like it would go the distance possibly, and I'd have to think that Marquez is going to try for that, and with the result of the second fight, he knows what happens when he gets off his game plan.
 
A lot of the reasoning for taking it today is strictly gut feel, and the line has dropped $10 over the last few days. 
 
GL everyone. 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by G8RB8:

I'm taking the over 7.5 rds for +105.
 
Taking advantage of a low total, and the fact that Marquez knows the only way he can win is to box, and not trade blows with Vazquez. If he lets himself get caught up in the drama again, and go for an all out war, it's suicide. The first fight looked like it would go the distance possibly, and I'd have to think that Marquez is going to try for that, and with the result of the second fight, he knows what happens when he gets off his game plan.
 
A lot of the reasoning for taking it today is strictly gut feel, and the line has dropped $10 over the last few days. 
 
GL everyone. 

 

Now that's what I call gambling.  GL, if you win, you earned it.  I might take a piece of it at fighttime myself, depending on how many Coronas I've downed by then. 

 
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Posted: #21
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by LarryParker:

 

Now that's what I call gambling.  GL, if you win, you earned it.  I might take a piece of it at fighttime myself, depending on how many Coronas I've downed by then. 

What I'm really interested in is how high the "Fight will go Distance" prop will be.  That's gotta be at least +300 I'd think.

It's now down to -105

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Posted: #23
Here's an angle to this fight that I'm not sure has been explicitly discussed yet. Israel Vazquez seems to be the kind of fighter who in knocking out an opponent, has a lasting impact on his opponent. I don't think anyone can argue that Marquez was more damaged in losing the 2nd fight than Vazquez in losing the 1st.

But look at the last 5 viable opponents Vazquez has stopped:

Jhonny Gonzalez. 2 fights later, stopped by Gerry Penalosa.

Oscar Larios. 2 years later stopped by Jorge Linares, and beaten up pretty badly by Manny before that.

Artyom Simonyan. Stopped in his next fight by Agapito Sanchez.

Jose Luis Valbuena. Stopped in his next fight by Caballero in 5 rounds.

Jorge Eliecer Julio. Retired after Vazquez stopped him.

It's hard for me to rationalize how Marquez is supposed to recover from the beating he took 6 months ago and win this fight. -160 seems like way too short of odds on Vazquez. RM probably had consecutive years in his career in which he was hit flush less than in 2 fights with this man.
 
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Posted: #24
about an hour or so away!
 
not betting it , i think i like vasquez by middle round KO..like 7-9
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Try 17 minutes, telecast comes on at 9:00 eastern.

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