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This Weekend (Early DLH Play)

Participants:

Posts: 33

BenFraLinz

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 45

Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 3:46 AM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by BenFraLinz:

De La Hoya did hand pick Forbes. The question is why Forbes? Simple, not a threat in punching power. Oscar is the bigger guy, but Forbes has fought much bigger guys, but none near even a top contender ability. He fought on The Contender which has drawn a following for him vs Oscar. It's being broadcasted on HBO instead of PPV, the reason is that it wouldn't sell.

HakAttack1 Also, you can get +240 u11.5 at BookMaker. It's better that +179 for a half of a round less you get 35% more money.

Those that bet the ealy +240 u11.5(now +185), can do a middle (if favoring one side just adjust) and bet Oscar to win by Dec -150. If you bet the under $1000 to win $2400, now bet Oscar to win by decision for $2100 to win $1400. If Oscar wins by decision you get $400, if it goes under 11.5 rounds you get $300. It's basically betting Oscar to win (just not a stoppage in the last 90 sceonds of round 12) $350 average and risking $3100. Also, it's betting Oscar to win a decision at 9-1 odds instead of 16-1, and if it goes under 11.5 rounds, it doesn't matter who wins (that more than makes up for the blind spot of the final 90 seconds of round 12).

HakAttack1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 387

Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 1:38 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

I don't think he'll be around another 5 years. He knows he will lose well before then. He would also have to fight Cotto at some point. If he loses to DLH, not many people are going to think any less of him. He won't lose a cent of money either. He may or may not want it. I do know one thing - the thing he wants the most is

If the last fight was scored as close as it was and Floyd easily won AT LEAST 8 rounds.. GBP could easily steal a win with a slightly better DLH performance, even though they might not have to. I just have a gut feeling that the fix is in when it comes to those two fighting again... it is good for everyone - boxing, the fans, floyd, oscar, hbo, etc etc

I agree theres a scenario where he could lose and get a high profiled 3rd fight, but I just don't think he'd want that to happen. Once the 0 goes and the p4p title goes, alot of the bloom is off the rose.

HakAttack1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 387

Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 1:43 PM ET #28

threw a unit on

Arslan by 12 rd decision (-102) 1.02 units to win 1

Could see a stoppage screwing me just like last night, but more value in the decision than the -325 straight play.

walktheline

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 4526

Posted: May. 3, 2008 - 7:51 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by HakAttack1:

threw a unit on

Arslan by 12 rd decision (-102) 1.02 units to win 1

Could see a stoppage screwing me just like last night, but more value in the decision than the -325 straight play.

Good hit Hak - hope I had a small part in that choice. What is your final play for the DLH fight tonight?

Fullbrights

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 4377

Posted: May. 4, 2008 - 12:26 AM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

LOL at what's in bold.

Gomez was taller then then Cotto yes, but I agree he wasn't bigger. Taller doesn't mean you are the naturally bigger guy.

Maybe it's just me, but I really think it's tough to get a solid read on this fight. Should DLH win, no doubt about it. DLH gets less active as the fight goes and even though Forbes is the much smaller man he has always been durable. I just don't know if DLH will be active enough in the second half of the fight to get Forbes out of there.

Forbes proved his durability once again. DLH was a bit more active in the second half of the fight then I thought he would be. Steroid Vargas aside, he is not the type of fighter to get a guy out of there late because he isn't consistently active with the jab at that point and he doesn't really seem to go for it. That's why I really didn't think there was much of a difference in playing the 9.5 or the 11.5 that were out there, if it went to 10 I thought for sure it was going the distance. I thought if the first one went over the second would definitely follow suit. At least Forbes can take away a moral victory of seeing the final bell along with his biggest payday.

Fullbrights

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 4377

Posted: May. 4, 2008 - 12:26 AM ET #31

You will get it back Hak.

HakAttack1

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 387

Posted: May. 4, 2008 - 3:37 AM ET #32

Quote Originally Posted by Fullbrights:

You will get it back Hak.

Yeah thanks man i hope so. Down 6 units for the week really hurts. Forbes was clearly unfazed by anything De La Hoya offered which i guess is a sad commentary on DLH's power, not that he didnt KO him as i thought he would but that he didnt hurt him at all.

DLh didnt prove himself worthy of the rematch imo but he'll get it anyhow i guess.

BenFraLinz

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 45

Posted: May. 4, 2008 - 10:12 PM ET #33

I agree with Fullbrights. Remember, most of Oscars KO's came from Super FeatherWeight & Lightweight. In Welterweight, the KO's he had came against Kamau, Rivera, Charpentier, Chavez (washed up at the time), Carr (who was decent but didn't have a great chin), Coley, Gatti (target practice with Gatti's hand speed so slow in comparison). At Middleweight KO'd Vargas (which I give him credit for, but Vargas was a beafed up Welterweight {steroids}), Campas, & Mayorga (who would get wrecked by any decent fighter with some power). Anyone who has fast hands, a decent decent, and enough to keep De La Hoya off can go the distance. My biggest question was could the accumulation of Oscar's left body hook have a late effect on Forbes. It did, but not enough. Also, any fighters Oscar has ever hurt in the ring he has finished. I found nice odds at TheGreek for Oscar to win by Decision -145, which I thought was a gift because Oscar was -1600 for the fight, and the total was roughly 3-1 favoring the over. Favoring the over and Oscar, I would assumed that the bet would have been Oscar -270 to win by Decision.

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This Weekend (Early DLH Play)

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