This Weekend

+5.7 units last week, +3 units posted plays

One play tonight,

Joel Torres/Christopher Fernandez Under 7.5 (-105) 1.05 units to win 1 unit

Fernandez has spent a good deal of his career on the canvas. He's been knocked out 3 times and down others. Now, he makes the long trip from Salt Lake City to the big city to face Torres, who certainly has shown knockout power against limited competition. I think the competition is limited again tonight and this is a showcase for the kid on ESPN2.

I knew the under might be in some trouble when they said that Ivan Calderon was in Torres's corner.  That's never a good sign of an early ending.  Torres just didn't look like much to me, I wonder what Dibella sees in the kid.

Yeah I agree, though I thought he won the fight. Bad call there. Proves me right to be making plays based almost entirely on boxrec.

Just can't find anything worth playing tonight, but getting in on some plays tomorrow with more to come:

Gamboa/Jimenez Under 9.5 (-105) 1.05 units to win 1

Gamboa has never gone more than 6 rounds and while I don't think that streak will continue forever, it could tomorrow night. I haven't read anyone that thinks that Gamboa is anything but the real deal and a legit blue chipper. I've only seen him on youtube, but I agree. He's got the power to hurt a guy like Jimenez, who will be coming forward. Jimenez's last 8 wins have been by KO too, just adding to the value on this play.

Eromosele Albert (+375) over James Kirkland .5 units to win 1.88 units

Got a little in on this and will get more on it tomorrow. Kirkland just seems way too raw to be laying this prive against Albert who is workmanlike and will find him and wear him down. The fear is that Kirkland catches him with the power, but if Albert can set the pace and avoid the big shots, I think he could win this fight easily.

Adding. . .

Alexander Munoz (+315) over Mijares 1 unit to win 3.15

Just too much value here and I held off for a while because Mijares is one of my favorite fighters and he made me $ against Arce. He's a rare fighter in that he makes action fights but is also a great technician which makes him difficult to beat. That said, he is hittable. And Munoz can hit. He can hit harder than Jose Navarro who pushed Mijares to the brink. I still think Mijares won that fight but he wasn't himself after he ate some shots and if Munoz can get into his head, I think he can pull the upset.

Gamboa/Jimenez Under 9.5 (-105) 1.05 to win 1

Adding another unit.

Probably a little more tomorrow when the decision props hit.

Albert (+450) over Kirkland 1 unit to win 4.5 units

Munoz by 12 rd decision (+1314) .25 units to win 3.29 units

All right thats it for me for tonight. Good luck to everyone.

 

Jeez Bud, You need to get your bets in a bit sooner.

Yesterday Gambo and Kirkland under were both +160.

 

I am with you on those 2 bets but I think Mijares beats Munoz on points.

 

Good luck All.

That's not alway's the case bud.

In some cases you are better to wait. Check out what AC2 or Fullbrights have to say. They know what they are talking about and it will give you an idea of what way the lines will swing.

 

Cotto/Margarito is a good example. If you are going to bet on Cotto, I would suggest you bet as soon as possible. If you are going to bet Margarito, I would suggest you wait until the last minute.

 

Good luck to you.

-5.9 units for the week, can't seem to get any momentum going.


-Bad call on Albert as he apparently wasnt ready to whether a first round barrage from Kirkland, which was my biggest fear. I still don't believe in Kirkland but you cant argue he can punch.

- One punch cost me in the Gamboa fight as if Jimenez doesn't score that knockdown, I doubt the corner/ref allow him to be hammered over ten rounds without that glimmer. Gamboa just didn't seem like he had it in him to stop him in the later rounds, which I guess comes with the territory as hes never been there. Tough effort by Jimenez though and he deserved to see the final bell.

- Havent seen the Mijares fight but it sounds like it wasn't a robbery or anything. I still like my plays there as I figured it would be competitive, I just hoped Munoz at 3-1 did enough. He came up short I guess.

Hellish week gotta get back on the + side next week.

Yeah the more I read about it the more it looks like Mijares was in control most of the way. Why are judges not willing to give him unanimous decisions?

 

That one guy must have been the WBA judge LOL. I watched the fight and there is no way it should have been split.

Towards the last couple of rounds, I was starting to think Munoz might get stopped.He was running on fumes.

Getting a few futures i just put in on the record here. . .

Mora/Forrest Over 10.5 (-170) 3.4 units to win 2

Ricardo Torres (+260) over Kendall Holt 2 units to win 5.2

I like the Torres play, as I find it odd for him to be dogged so much after KO'ing Holt last time, and Holt looking subpar against Tackie in his last outing.  Holt doesn't have the best chin, so all Torres needs to do is crack him once.

But I don't know about laying all that chalk on the Mora-Forrest over.  Mora's looked really bad his last two times out, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Forrest stop him.  Mora's lost a step, which is causing him to get hit more directly than he had during his "contender" days.

Keep your head up Hak, dropped a little under 2 units myself this weekend. Mijares started a little slow but he had Munoz punching air from about the third round on, and even rocked him with a nasty shot in the ninth. Which had me rattled, since I had the over parlayed with Gamboa.

Also, remind me to reconsider any over plays involving Tony Weeks. I'm a fan first and not a sadist, so I'll support most quick triggers, but the man does not know the meaning of a standing eight count.

Exactly my thinking about Torres. Holt looked brutal against Tackie, a guy who is by all accounts shot. If he is lackluster in this one, he'll be rocked by Torres. I know the first fight was controversial but  in rewatching it Torres did come back to have Holt badly hurt late and I thought the stoppage wasn't that bad. I don't really see how any of this adds up to a +260 line.

As for Mora, he has looked terrible since his contender days, true, but I still think he can move plenty to keep Forrest from landing anything truly damaging. I don't envision Forrest going for broke in a fight he will likely be able to control.

Appreciate the insight.

Forest is going to crush Mora! ive sparring on Mora getting crushed by Margorito granted its Margorito but he wasnt even competing.I can see another beat down of a Pretender

Not saying the Torres play is bad at all.  I backed him last time against Holt and will again do the same, but in a different fashion.  Holt will always be fade material against a puncher, his chin is bad.

Here's my philosophy on betting this fight though and maybe this will help those that are thinking about a Torres play.  Why take Torres ML here when they will offer fight outcomes for this fight?  I just don't think there is much value in taking Torres straight at that line when you will be able to get +400ish on ITD.  IMO Torres cannot win a decision over Holt outside of Columbia unless he brings his judges with him or puts Holt on the canvas 3-4 times over the distance.  Needless to say in my mind if Torres wins it will be by KO, so I would suggest to those wanting to bet Torres just wait for the KO prop.  That is what I will be doing.  Just my two cents.

I guess I may be in the minority on this play. I'm no more a fan of Mora than anyone else in the world, but I don't think his chin/defense is anything worse than average. I rewatched Forrest's last few fights and I just don't see him, at 37, bringing anything explosive to the table that is going to make this fight end quickly. I also don't think he'll put himself in enough spots to wear him down at all like he did Piccorillo. "Contenders" have burned me in the past but I just envision a slow fight with minimal action and like the value on the over.