Plays this week (not Pac/Marq!)

Hey,

I made a few obscure plays this week, going mostly by boxrec and/or fightwriter analysis. All the plays were early lines, all bets of 50$. My bets have moved the line already.

I'd like to hear some input from you guys, I haven't seen most of these guys in action. Here are the plays, you can read my explanations at https://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=320795

Ali +102
Antillon/Pac over 9.5 -121
Bami over Barnes -141
Kotelnik -151
Luevano/Jandaeng over 9.5 -252
Nagashima/Jaca over 9.5 -200

Wanted to play Nakamori/Ishii over 9.5 -250, but ran out of dough at the book.

Thoughts?

2007: +12.45 units
2008: -15.56 units

I've got one huge, huge, huge play that should help me recover quite a bit:

Urbano Antillon vs. Bobby Pacquiao
Antillon (-200)
10 units
 
Under 9.5 (+115)
2.61 units

I know that there's no such thing as a lock, but Antillon is too good to only be a 2-1 favorite over the technically deficient "Ms. Pac-man."  Antillon's about to make waves in the super featherweight division, as I'm eagerly anticipating a Latin Fury matchup against Edwin Valero.  Whether the fight actually happens is just speculation on my part, but it would be a treat for all boxing fans.  Trejo would've beaten Bobby in his last fight if Trejo hadn't suffered a freak shoulder injury, as Bobby was looking extremely hittable in the first few rounds.  Come to think of it, Bobby always looks extremely hittable.  Meanwhile, Antillon has simply crushed his last four opponents.  His split decision win against Trejo in 2005 came when Antillon was still learning his craft, and that kind of experience will serve Antillon well tonight.  I expect a KO at around the midway point of the fight. 

Another reason for the very large unit size on this wager is that when I originally capped the fight before the odds came out, I had Antillon at -500, with an under 7.5 (-120).  I can't pass up this value.

I'm not the most reputable person to be critiquing plays at this point, but here's my take:

Ali Ndiaye is a big question mark.  He hasn't faced anyone on Mock's level, and even though Mock is fading, we saw what happened in a similar-type situation last Friday where Cruz beat the prospect Mashaba.

Of course, I think that your over play on Antillon/Pac is ill-fated.

I think that Barnes edges Bami on points.  As long as Barnes is focussed, his youth and talent should carry him against a opponent who's not really a power threat.

That's a lot of chalk to lay on the over in Luevano-Jandaeng considering that Jandaeng will invite some trading.  It's possible that he gets worn down, and it's also not out of the realm of possibility that he catches Luevano at some point.  You should win this bet, but I just don't like to lay that much chalk on an over.

I don't know enough about the Jaca/Nagashima fight, and I haven't looked at Kotelnik/Rees yet.

I could NOT agry mo' A2C! That line is stunning me. I'm all over Urbane or whatever his name is. On the other Vs. side, I just kan't wait to take some1 to smoke big dork Tye Fields out. But sadly, RoWills has gained too much weight for this one, and Tye to his cred' did finally show some improvement last time out. I'll throw Tye in w/ ACC action if Tye's line ever opens. Though I do promise you, & I don't make promises, some1 will eventually clunk Tye right on his great White hype chin. I like Tye the person, H I even cheer for him to win, but you can just see the inevitability here.

GLA!
bigeiii

Thanks for the feedback A2C. Criticize my picks all you want, it might save me some dough ;)

Based on the line movement, it looks like Pac/Antillon over play is a total dud. Ah well, small loss. Nice play on your part. This reminds me of the Berto/Trambant fight, where records would tell you to play the over, but the under ended up like –170.

Aside from that line, the lines have moved in my favour or not at all, so I can buy them back at even or a micro loss. I was going by boxrec and Graham Houston, and wanted to hit early lines in case the book had it wrong. I know very little of these guys.

I caught Clinton Woods and Ali at a good time.

Consider this as well I just played....Antillon ITD+389. The line has fallen to Antillon ITD+low 100's.

Bobby ITD opened right above +100.

I hope they honor this bet (5$0.10); as this looks like a typo-data-entry error to me.

bigeiii

Also of note that SSS had gained about 20 for his fight w/ the lowly RD, who has gained about 4o lbs.! SSS is normally a Decision begging to happen, and he has one of the very best Heavyweight Chins, but that much blubber is not a way to Total things up.

GLA!
bigeiii

Definitely in the minority here, but I took Bobby P. at +230 for .75 of a unit.  Not that I'm high on Bobby; I took Trejo against him last time out, but he is too large of a dog here.  Antillon is a good prospect, but just that, a prospect.  I've seen his last two fights against the usual suspects and I've seen a lot of sparring footage on max of him in the past, but this is a new level for him and I have heard good things regarding Bobby's training leading up to this one.  BTW, there is new sparring footage of Antillon up at maxboxing if anyone is interested.

Be back later with my current slate.

Interesting play Fullbrights. I'd wish you luck, but well, you know.

I've been viewing Little Pac as having a lot of in-Ring mileage. Dude is gutty and game, to be sure, but he's take more than his fair share of shots, and does not have a lot of defense to begin with. He is in my notes as a target to go against when/as I can.

Still hoping for a Tye Line. I've looked at all 3 books, no dice.
: (

Interesting that the extremely esteemed G.Houston is gonna pick Marquez to upset Pac-Man as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

who is g. houston?

Right here. OUTSTANDING preview guy. He has enormous inroads and spys to get behind the scenes 411. Best I know of, period, at such. I don't always agry, but I always read each preview, b/c he finds the little things that most other people will miss. HTH's.

GLA!
bigeiii

He has a website that he created called fightwriter.com and he does some pieces now and then for espn.  He is a good writer and definitely has some good insight into certain fights, but most put way too much credence to what he says.

I don't think you will get a Tye line.  When will Arum put him in with someone that has a pulse?  The guy give a new definition to the word protected.

Yep, I've made it well known over the past couple of months where my money lay on this fight and that is with JMM.  I never thought the line would have crept to where it is now or obviously I wouldn't have gotten some money down at the earlier numbers that I did.

Recall my source who called the Decision part to the fight about 2 weeks ago when no one else did Fullbrights? He said the zact same thing to me today re: Tye's protection. Dude should cut an add for Trojan Rubbers. But even protected as the next (pardon the pharse) Great White Hype, I'm still looking to try some lesser guy against him. Call it an intrinsic or subjective take on my part, but just like SCJ Potter Stewart, "I know it when I see it." regarding a suspect but heretofore unexposed bad chin.

Are you playing JMM as a side or as an Outcome? TIA, if you can.


bigeiii

bigeii and fb,

opened the link and saw the site but didn't read anything about the pac-jmm match. care to post the link?

thanks!!!

It's not out on his site, yet.

GLA!
bigeiii

Side, I've been on him for a while as posted in my futures.  I never thought this much Manny money would come in and drive it up.  I thought +160 was the highest it would go for JMM.

https://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=3287615

He hasn't been posting his previews to the big events in the last few weeks.  Must be something contractual with ESPN.  Apparently, they now have exclusive rights to his "special" previews.

  Very nice call A2C on both Antillon and the under.  Thats the way to get out of a funk.

And to those who followed.

H yes! I was down about 4 units on the year. Just tabbed Urbano ITD and Urbano as a side. Finally playing with house chips for the rest of the weekend. : )

Nice upper-cut and nice Liver shot. BP is extremely shop-worn. Dude needs to fight lesser guys if he wants to stick around; & you just know he has the mentality to stick around. God Bless him, that's admirable, but it can be self-destructive, at times.

bigeiii

Congrats to all Urbano backers. We were looking at the lines on 5 dimes, and I really think they were trying to con people into betting Bobby Pac by mistake. The Bobby line settled down at +210 while Manny has sat down at -210. Something tells me this cannot be merely a coincidence.