Plays for the Weekend (VS, HBO PPV, Swiss Action)

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: -2.5 units (-$250)
2007 to date: +34.48 units (+$3,448)

Big weekend in Vegas.  No real solid take on the main event, liked Mayweather early on, but now I am beginning to wonder.  If a semi-retired Oscar was able to win rounds (the fight on one card) then you gotta think Hatton's pressure style and the crowd will effect the judges.  Plus, now I'm reading that Hatton's reps are already negotiating with Oscar about a mega-fight after this.  That seems a little strange.

I'm down on a good many so far.......

Thursday
1.8 units on Foreman by 10 round decision (-120)
Like I said in the other thread, I don't think much of Foreman, but his style is wrong for Tsurkan.  A guy that I correspond with put it best when he said "Tsurkan is no better than a guy like Karass who Foreman easily outpointed."  I completely agree, very true.

Friday
.75 of a unit on Tamara (+180) vs Hernandez
I wasn't at all impressed with Hernandez against Marquez in his last appearance on Telemundo.  I don't think he should be a 2-1 fave over Tamara who I really view as his equal.

Saturday (A lot of action)
1 unit on Haussler (+170) vs Sanavia
Still a Sauerland promotion although in Switzerland.  Same ol' story and a dog this time to boot.

.30 of a unit on Watson (+350) vs Nuumbembe
Watson may prove to be a bit too inexperienced here, but he does have a nice amateur background to draw on.  Yeah Nuumbembe beat Anderson, but that doesn't mean quite as much on the domestic scene now.

.75 of a unit on Ferguson (+240) vs Cherry
I backed Ferguson last time as a dog and lost narrowly when he fought Cherry.  Cherry has been inactive since and you have to think this fight was made for some reason by Ferguson's people (Mayweather).

1.15 units on Hatton +9.5 Points Handicap (-115)
See thoughts above.

A LONG shot parlay for the weekend
.25 of a unit to win 3.22 units
Hernandez-Tamara over 10.5 (-170)
Ornelas (-170)
Mayweather +16.5 points (-550)
Lacy (-550)
Over 7.5 (+145) in Escobedo-DPDL
Khan (-700)
Abraham (-1375)
Duddy (-320)

I know you won't agree with this Bigeiii, but I think the odds are way too wide in the DPDL fight.

.50 of a unit on Escobedo (+1100) vs DPDL
Classically trained Beristein counter puncher against the still raw Ponce.  Who knows with the always powerful DPDL, but I think we see a close fight here. 

Ponce is, as you say, "raw" Fullbrights. I agry. Which reminds me of what Graham Houston said the fight Dr. said re: Felix Trinidad, "Bet on him, until he gets beat."

"Yes" my boy did get beat, but not cracked the (blank) out. That's what I'm talking about. As DPDL has a low Ring-lifespan style to him, and he's not exactly a big guy to being with. So you prolly can/will catch DPDL, going against for +$$$ at some point Fullbrights, I just hope it's not this weekend.


bigeiii

I didn't know you fought professionally.  I thought that your experience was limited to the headgear/corrupt points circuit. Funny quote.

Nice!
& funny g.fellows avatar as well.


bigeiii

Does that include betting him at -1600?  I just read Steve Kim's front page article over at maxboxing, you might want to check it out.  It's a good read on your boy.  Judging from the article it looks like I am not the only one giving Escobedo a decent shot here.  I saw his last fight on Telefutura and there is no way with his pedigree and technical skills that these odds should be where they are.

Good stuff.

"Now i just go to the gym look tough on the heavy bag and show MMA scrubs how to punch."

You had me there.

Doesn't look good for Boreman through 4 rounds.

Through 8 now.  Foreman is getting away with his bore tactics now because Tsurkan isn't doing much.  I have it 4-4 and am wishing I would have put a bit on the draw to cover my decision prop losing out to it.

I have it 96-94 Foreman.  This fight completely changed after round 5.  You have to think the location/promoter may effect the judging also and that advantage goes to Foreman.

1.8 units on Foreman by 10 round decision (-120)

The right man got the decision, glad to see two judges agreed with me and saw it 96-94 Foreman  I was having a NY flashback to getting moosed on Santa Cruz after that first scorecard; though this wouldn't have been near as bad.  The only way Foreman knows to win is to stink out the joint and that's what he did the second half of the fight.  Foreman's cut was much worse than I thought it was during the fight.

 Good start to the week.

Disappointing effort from Foreman, I didn't think he would struggle that much, but at least he did what he had to do to win and, last I checked, that was the goal in boxing. Can't wait for Saturday.

Well; Foreman ITD hit, & that's good enough. I had it 5-4-1, favor of Yuri, who did just enough to win a narrow but legit Decision. Yuri will get beat down the road, so I'll be looking to try to side against him when he steps up in competition.

Also of note, Danny-boy-Williams has managed to gain about 3.5 Stones (or 50 pounds) for fighting Oleg. I now like the LOW & Oleg in this one.


bigeiii

Looks like people agreed with me on Escobedo's price.

When I made my bet on Escobedo yesterday at +1100 the prices at my books were....

5Dimes
De Leon -1600
Escobedo +1100

TheGreek
De Leon -1375
Escobedo +950

Fast forward to now and you are looking at......

5Dimes
De Leon -850
Escobedo +575

TheGreek
De Leon -950
Escobedo +625

I'm not saying Escobedo will win, but those numbers were rediculous and it looks like others noticed also. Hope you didn't get too much of your action down early Big.

Actually, I'm trying something a little new. I'm taking your picks Fullbrights, mixing them in w/ my own, 1 at a time (my pick or your pick as the anchor); parlayed with my VT/ACC picks, or college hoops, or real lopsided Boxing chalks.

 I may even get around to trying 2-5 of our combined low -$$$ or +$$$'s each week Parlayed, to shoot for a very high ROI on 1/5th of a unit. Agry on Khan, AA, & Duddy (though he gets tested by the oddball Eastman). Agry on your antiBronco play, I added an UP there as well. Alcine.

Yes, I see the drop. Looking at it right now in fact. I had to add DPDL ITD. I'm riding this horsey until all the oats fall outta it's mouth. GL on every other one Fullbrights, I'm with you on all of them 'cept the Hatton Pts.Prop.


bigeiii

I know what you’re saying.  Something in the air keeps tickling my spider sense, suggesting to me that FM is vulnerable.  Maybe it’s 24/7.  I mean that’s the point of the show, right?  To convince Joe Public that RH has a chance so that he’ll order the PPV. 

Trouble is when Floyd talks about his hands and body breaking down it doesn’t sound like salesmanship, it sounds honest.  I think the guy is having real physical trouble.  I also think he might want to give himself an out if things don’t go his way.  In my gut I know to avoid fighters who exhibit that kind of thinking.  Especially when they’re facing a guy with a high workrate, a relentless body attack, and a good ability to cut off the ring.      

I probably should sit this one out, but I have a feeling I won’t.   There are just so many reasons to play FM:

RH isn’t as good as his record looks because JLC and Tszyu were shot when he faced them.

RH won’t have a size advantage nearly as big as he’s used to (which plays an important role in his bullying style)

FM has better handspeed, defense, and conditioning

FM has a lot of ways to win and RH only really has one

Market conditions favor FM (there’s a mini-British-invasion going on in LV right now, FM is the heel, etc)

 

Basically what I’m saying is that every handicapping tool I know suggests that Mayweather is the play.

Fullbrights, you wanna talk me out of this one?  Save me some money?  I’m thinking I might tap FM if he hits -170 or “FM by decision” on plus money.  

 

Eape: Good to see you around Covers again buddy.

Yeah, that is basically the only point of the show.  I posted this in another thread on the board earlier today......

Fact: HBO's Countdown and 24/7 shows are meant to do one thing; get you to buy the fight.  They show what they want to show and portray everything in the way they choose. 

I am not saying what they are showing isn't a true indication of the way PBF and Hatton are, but their sole intent in every one of these preview shows that they do is to get you to fork over the dough.  They try to point out flaws in the favorite and build up the underdog every time.  It was never more evident than in the Pac-Barrera Countdown preview show; a casual fan would walk away saying, "Wow, Barrera is as live a dog as there is."  To which any knowledgeable boxing fan that isn't biased would say, are you out of your mind? You would have thought that was an even money fight after the preview show that they put on. 

That being said I think Mayweather wins a close decision.  This fight isn't by any means the mismatch that many think it will be though;  In my opinion Mayweather won't stop Hatton and the crowd plus Hatton's pressure/activity (even if ineffective) will influence the judges.

I think you see a 8-4 or 7-5 type fight in Mayweather's favor in reality, but what that translates to on the judges scorecards remains to bee seen.  Hatton will have a lot of influence on the judges; the crowd, the come forward style, and GBP.  Am I the only one that thinks it's a little strange that their is already talk of a DLH-Hatton mega fight?

You'll have mail shortly.  I'm watching the Hernandez-Tamara fight on on Telemundo right now, so I'll try to type it out between rounds.  It's funny, I never thought that I would learn more Spanish watching boxing on Telemundo and Telefutura then I did in school (which wasn't much).

It's safe to say I will never understand the way you bet Bigs or how you pull much profit out going the parlay route and having a single result tied into multiple parlays.  Regardless, I hope my picks bring you some dough this weekend.  Cheers on Ornelas, tough break on the over buddy; I don't think many people thought that much leather would fly early on in that fight.

My dog is looking good on Telemundo, very good fight.