Plays for the Week (Where did all the action go?)

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last two weekends played: +4.85 units (+485)
2008 to Date: -14.49 units (-$1,449)

Should be a pretty slow week this week around the board.  Not much action, but there is a pretty big card from Panama tonight though there are some long odds out there.  Close, but no cigar on a massive week last week.  I'm kicking myself for not playing Jackawitz to beat Bonsu as a dog in his home country of Poland Sunday, I chickened out on pulling the trigger since I hadn't seen him before.  Won $200 on Nate Diaz last night in UFC thanks to a tip from a friend (thanks Mayweather fan).  Don't usually bet UFC, but no one seems to have a better feel for Diaz then you do, close fight, but this very amateur MMA judge had it 29-28 Diaz like the majority.  Sounds like the Arce fight was a great scrap, congrats to those who cashed in on him.  I just couldn't pull the trigger, I still think he is great fade material as it read like he still had to pull through some rough moments to get the win stoppage.

Playing a couple of dogs in Panama tonight along with Kid Diamond and a parlay that will go through next weekend (hopefully).

.75 of a unit on Pineda (+500)
He may be a spent bullet and this may look like a dumb play at the end of the night, but he has never lost in his home country of Panama outside of a couple of stoppages 10 years ago.  Palacios has a decent skill set, but doesn't have much pop.  Having seen Pineda a couple of times and Palacios against Azille and Page I don't think there is that much separating these two other then the fact that Pineda has lost when facing world class opposition and Palacios hasn't lost to any top guys because he hasn't faced them.  I wouldn't complain a bit with some nice home country treatment.

.25 of a unit on Santos (+800)
Moreno should win his home country, but I just don't think the odds should be this wide.  He did impress me against Sidorenko, but Santos is usually very game and in fights even when he loses.  Just a value play for $25.

2.25 units on Kid Diamond (-225) vs Jauregui
I may be in the minority, but I still think Jauregui lost to Huerta.  I'm in the majority I'm sure when I say that Diamond lost to Huerta also.  I just think Diamond's style is wrong for Jauregui not to an extent of Peterson, but along similar lines.  Jauregui looked bad against Peterson.  This is a fight made for Diamond to get a win against a respected journeyman and here's hoping that he will.

.80 to win 4.25
Caballero-Meija under 5.5 (-290)
Cordoba (-525) vs Perez
Kid Diamond (-225)
Huck (-310)
Murat (-1300)
Mosley ITD (-138)
Berto (-900)
Hopefully Caballero doesn't mess around with Meija too long, he should get this guy out of Panama in a hurry.  I think Perez is shot.  See Kid Diamond thoughts above.  Huck and Murat should win on friendly soil.  Mayorga is made for Mosley to look good and I expect a result similar to Trinidad and DLH against him.  Berto is too big for Forbes and Berto's biggest flaw is his chin, but Forbes doesn't have the power to check it in my opinion.

I also went ahead and played a few futures this week.

2 units on under 8.5 (+115) in Abraham vs Marquez
2 units on under 8.5 (+110) in Abraham vs Marquez
Can you say Marquez-Taylor encore?  Only difference here in my mind is the ending will come earlier this time as Abraham won't be content to jab him to death.

1.45 units on Klitschko (-145) vs Peter
If the fight happens that is.  Yeah, it's a ton of ring rust to shake, but if Klit is healthy he beats Peter from a distance.  Peter has regressed since the Toney rematch and he looked like his feet and hands were in slow motion against Maskaev; that's saying a lot against the robot Maskaev.

.50 of a unit to win 4.9
Mosley ITD (-138)
Berto (-900)
Abraham-Marquez under 8.5 (+115)
Klitschko (-145) vs Peter
Calzaghe (-320) vs Jones
Taylor (-550) vs Lacy

Random thoughts..
What are some thought on Pavlik-Hopkins?  I just can't bring myself to throw Pavlik into any parlays at the price he is at, maybe it's my B-Hop skill set respect coming out.  I do see Pavlik winning, but it wouldn't surprise me a bit if B-Hop knocks him down with a counter similar to the way he put down Calzaghe.

Anybody else giving Paulie a shot to win a decision against Hatton?  I'll wait for the British money to flow in. 

I'm looking forward to props being offered for Dawson-Mason Dixon.  I won't play Tarver straight, but I will definitely have some on him ITD at +400ish.

.75 of a unit on Pineda (+500)
He may be a spent bullet and this may look like a dumb play at the end of the night, but he has never lost in his home country of Panama outside of a couple of stoppages 10 years ago.  Palacios has a decent skill set, but doesn't have much pop.  Having seen Pineda a couple of times and Palacios against Azille and Page I don't think there is that much separating these two other then the fact that Pineda has lost when facing world class opposition and Palacios hasn't lost to any top guys because he hasn't faced them.  I wouldn't complain a bit with some nice home country treatment.


[/Quote]I have a sizable wager on Pineda. I know Palacios took the fight on 3 day's notice but he looked like shit against Azzile and was well behind on points before landing the "Hail Mary" uppercut.

Palacios has only been past 6 rounds once and that was an 8 rounder. This fight is scheduled for 11 rounds.

Good luck my friend

Interesting...???  Odds up on Pineda, maybe someone knows something that I don't, but call me a sucker I had to grab a small piece again.  Are people throwing in Palacios into parlays or playing him straight at -800ish against the larger Pineda in his back yard?

.25 more of a unit on Pineda (+600) vs Palacios

Good luck to us.  Glad I'm not the only one as it would seem.

I had to take $25 more at +600, I don't see why these odds are rising.  Are people just seeing that Pineda has lost his last three fights, one of which was at HW in the undefeated Drummond's back yard?

Call me a Fucking muppet  I bet at +385 when the odds first came out expecting them to go down.

I bet again at +500 and now the odds are at +625 at the Greek.

Have people even seen Palacios? He sucks major balls.

Added a fun little $10 parlay for tonight.

.10 of a unit to win 4.75
Caballero under 5.5 (-215)
Santos-Moreno under 9.5 (+315)
Cordoba (-550)
Pineda (+575)

Yeah, I appreciate the tip.  You definitely have a good feel for him and have cleaned up on those three.  You are my Nate Diaz go to guy. Yep, was a good week for me that could have been monumental.

I see what you are saying on Abraham, but I think we will see a similar result to the Elcock and Demers fights.  Marquez has been mixing it up a lot more since his comeback and I think Abraham will happily oblige.  I think will Marquez will be donating blood as usual by round 4 and Abraham will look to get him out of there.  Abraham I'm sure wants to look impressive since he is looking at an HBO date in January, don't quite understand pairing him with Winky Wright though.

Yeah, I think we had talked about the Klit-Peter fight last time we spoke.  I thought I would grab a little since the odds seem to be rising.  I just hope the fight happens, that's the only reason I didn't put more on it; didn't want my money being tied up in a fight that might get called off.

I missed the +625, but man who was betting Palacios at those numbers?

Yeah, sometimes you win the numbers game and sometimes you don't, you just have to go with your gut.  Looks like I flopped on playing Kid Diamond early, seems like there are some Javier believers out there.

I'm sure that it will be a few hours before we know anything.  Fightnews is probably the best bet seeing as how they have been covering the card and the WBA will probably send the results to them.

I don't know what round but Palacios KO'd Pineda. Easy come, easy go LOL.

Caballero won in the first round.

The Perez fight has just started.

did Moreno beat Santos?

Fullbrights,

- I like the Kid Diamond play alot. I thought the exact same thing when I saw this fight. JJ fought last month. He's being brought in here as an opponent. I'm hoping some props hit on 5dimes.

- Great future on Marquez/Abraham Under. I'm tailing right now. Marquez is a tough guy but when Abraham turns it on, how is Marquez going to survive? I think we can thank Elvin Ayala for somehow staying on two feet into the 12th for getting us this juicy line.

- You hit the nail on the head with Paulie. Since this fight was announced, I've been waiting and waiting. I plan on loading up on Paulie after the British money comes in.  Neither guy looked  great last time out, but Hatton really just looked like he was in prime shape to get outboxed by a guy like Paulie. I've seen other people say it and I hope it is true that Paulie didnt get up for N'Dou and Ngou. He'll be up for this fight and I think he could put on a clinic in this fight. If only his hands weren't an issue . . . Still Malignaggi may be my biggest play of the year.

Yep, like I said it may look like a dumb play at the end of the night.  Apparently Pineda was just shot, oh well didn't have a lot on it.  For the circumstances involved in the fight I still like the play in hindsight if Pineda wasn't a dead man walking, but apparently he was if Palacios stopped him that early.

Good to hear that we are on the same page buddy.  I like the Marquez-Abraham future a lot, I'm standing pat for now, but if the line goes up any I may have to take some more out.  I think we could maybe see Paulie +300ish by fight time.

Good luck to us on Kid Diamond.

.75 of a unit on Pineda (+500)
.25 more of a unit on Pineda (+600) vs Palacios
.10 of a unit to win 4.75
Caballero under 5.5 (-215)
Santos-Moreno under 9.5 (+315)
Cordoba (-550)
Pineda (+575)
.25 of a unit on Santos (+800)


.80 to win 4.25
Caballero-Meija under 5.5 (-290)
Cordoba (-525) vs Perez
Kid Diamond (-225)
Huck (-310)
Murat (-1300)
Mosley ITD (-138)
Berto (-900)

I was a sucker, looks like Pineda was just shot.  Down 1.35 units for the week, but the parlay pushes through to the rest of the weekend and next, I like it's chances.  War Kid Diamond tonight.

Added Kid Diamond ITD into a parlay for $25.  Jauregui is tough, but I thought he looked terrible in the weigh in photos; he looked drained to an extreme.

.25 of a unit to win 2.44
Kid Diamond ITD (+554)
Huck (-300)
Mosley (-900)
Berto (-900)

thanks for the info.  tailing you on this play.

Judges had me crapping my pants there. Really close decison but Diamond is

Yep, it was a good fight.  I'm just glad that Jauregui doesn't have more power, he landed some flush shots.

2.25 units on Kid Diamond (-225) vs Jauregui
.25 of a unit to win 2.44
Kid Diamond ITD (+554)
Huck (-300)
Mosley (-900)
Berto (-900)

.80 to win 4.25
Caballero-Meija under 5.5 (-290)
Cordoba (-525) vs Perez
Kid Diamond (-225)
Huck (-310)
Murat (-1300)
Mosley ITD (-138)
Berto (-900)

Gave a bit back on Diamond ITD, but still a good result.  The weigh in photos definitely weren't indicative of how strong JJ would be tonight.  Game effort no doubt about it.  I had it 6-4 Diamond.

A couple of plays on fights offered at thegreek, nothing at 5dimes yet on these fights which is kind of odd since usually it's the other way around.

1.95 units on under 7.5 rounds (-130) in Rhodes-Coyle
I haven't seen Coyle, but judging by his record he isn't much opposition.  I was pretty impressed with the way that Rhodes was able to finish Woolcombe off last time out, I think the ending will come earlier tomorrow in front of his hometown fans.

1.15 units on under 9.5 rounds (-115) in Santa-Cruz/Pitalua
I didn't even know this fight was happening this weekend until I saw it listed.  I see it playing out two ways, Pitalua is over the hill at 38 and doesn't last long or making 135 takes it toll again on Santa Cruz and he gets clocked after fading in the middle rounds again by Pitalua.