Plays for the Week (Where are the big matchups?)

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -2.85 units (-$285)
2008 to Date: -16.38 units (-$1,638)

Where did all the big match ups go?  To say that this weekend doesn't hold quite hold same luster as the last couple of weeks is an understatement.  A couple WNF plays for me tonight.

1.25 units over 8.5 rounds (+175) in Vilches-Urango
I know Vilches has been stopped a few times, but he has been on a nice run of late and I think will be semi-competitive tonight.  I guess the last two times I have seen him is Julio and Hatton.  I thought he looked pretty rough against Julio, but Julio is a tall puncher who does damage from the outside.  I think the better fight to compare this one to is the Hatton fight; much like Ricky, Urango is a squatty body puncher.  I think this is a style that Vilches is more durable against.  I stood next to Urango at a card back in January and even 5' 7'' is being generous.  Urango should win, but I think Vilches will be there late in the fight.

.25 of a unit on Okine (+800) vs Greene
Should the naturally bigger Greene beat the short noticed Okine, yes, that's why he is such a big fave here.  I just don't think that Greene is that great and to be honest with you I don't think Okine is that bad.  I saw Greene down early against that bum Salmons and I don't think it's that far fetched that he may get knocked down again tonight.

I wondered where it opened up at, yeah we are definitely in the minority then.  +170 on the over still available at the greek, but the price at 5dimes has dropped a bit to +155.  Urango is pretty strong, but I like the play.

He's built like an ox, but not a dynamic puncher at all. This only ends early if Vilches is at the point where he can't take a shot anymore. We shall see.

Ditto, very strong, but like you said not a one shot guy.  Hopefully cuts are a non-factor.

I retract that statement, wow; that was a massive shot that Vilches never saw.  I actually liked the way the fight was going up until that point for the over.  Glad to see that he is okay.

Well, what can you do. I knew we were screwed once Vilches started trading. Honestly, I'm still not that blown away by Urango. His power is ridiculous if you stand in front of him with your hands down like Vilches did tonight. He still has no clue how to cut the ring down.

We'll get them next time Fullbrights.

   I thought his chin was holding up very well to everything so far and he was staying at a distance for the most part which is why I liked the way it was going.  He just didn't see that shot.

1.25 units over 8.5 rounds (+175) in Vilches-Urango
  Now that was brutal.

.25 of a unit on Okine (+800) vs Greene
Looked decent through 3 rounds.  Needed about four more low blows.

Hey FB, tough break on that over in Vilches-Urango.  You got great value, though, so there was nothing wrong with the play.  I thought it had a great chance of coming thru until that Urango shot came out of nowhere.

They haven't posted odds on Tsurkan-Feliciano, but that looks to be just about the only other interesting bout of the weekend (too much chalk for me on that German card).  U think we'll get reasonable odds on Tsurkan, or is it going to be in the -300 or above territory?  I can see those two battling in the trenches for 5 or 6 rounds before the ref has to stop it for Jesse's own good.

I'd consider backing Tsurkan against Cintron for the right price. Giving him fits doesn't really impress me, it just shows that you're not a complete bum.

I agree. All I'm saying is that the SOB is durable, assuming his chin hasn't been permanently dented.

Appreciate it.  Yeah, at those odds the play was a no-brainer for me; not to be though.

Looks like you pulled a 180 on tonight's main event.  Good luck, I didn't think that Feliciano would be this wide because to be honest with you Tsurkan is kind of on the same level.

.40 of a unit on the draw in Tsurkan-Feliciano (+2500)
The fight is a 10-rounder, I don't expect any knockdowns, I expect a relatively close fight, and I think the fight lasts the distance barring a TD.  +2500 is a darn good number on the draw for this one in my opinion.  Hopefully the near miss on the draw in the Santana fight was an omen for a soon to be big draw hit.

That's it for the week for me.  What a boring boxing weekend, but we've been treated to some great ones lately.

Yeah, I'd forgotten that Feliciano actually has the build to fight at that weight, and I went back over my notes on the Tsurkan-Foreman fight.  Gut reaction was Tsurkan, but I try to avoid playing my gut.

I know you're going to hit that draw sometime soon.  Tonight could be your night.  Good luck at it -- if Feliciano can't win it, I hope you have a "grand" night.

I played Tsurkan as a side with KB for .11u. My min.wager, just a pop-corn popper of a parlay. Not real strong on anything for FNF's. Looks like 2 grinders, neither one is all that, but T'kan has homecourt in the Bronx, he has no less voltage, Jessie is not a mover & a shaker (which we've seen give T'kan issues in the past), & T'kan has a mild Reach edge which won't hurt him at home on the cards.


bigeiii

Yeah, I agree there really isn't that big of a size disparity even though Feliciano hasn't been fighting at this weight.  Like I said I really don't think Tsurkan and Feliciano are on that different of levels.  I took out an equal play on Feliciano by decision also.

Sure would be nice.

"Pop-corn popper of a parlay."  I like that, yeah it's definitely hard to fall in love with anything on this limited weekend.

I lied.

Added one more.....

.40 of a unit on Feliciano by 10 round decision (+521)

With you on both plays for small. It's going to be close and almost certainly heading to the scorecards. Gotta find a little value on such a boring weekend.

Good luck.

Got what I needed. T'kan won. & in the pre-fight his guy sure sounded slurry in his phonation patterns. 100+ head shots did not help. JF needs to consider getting out. & how about his corner telling him "1:17" over and over. Or was that under and under??? Roman won a decision. Not a big nite, but a right nite.


bigeiii

-multi hundred. -600 or so is my vague estimate. Though an ITD play will obviously pay better.

HTH's
bigeiii

If it's -600 I will be all over Smith.  I don't think you will see anything north of -300 on Julio.