Plays for the Week (It's that time again)

Last week: -1.68 units (Paul W. showed much more mettle down the stretch than I would have ever thought)
2007 to date: +13.37 units
$100 a unit

I must be out of my mind to be betting another dog on ESPN this year after all the hometown calls that have gone against me this year, but I am falling into the trap again.  Some personal bias may be figuring into this play so tread lightly, I bet Stark in Oliver's last time out on TV and thought I had a dog winner only to hear the Oklahoma scorecards read, I guess they awarded points for holding and running (hopefully tonight's judges don't).

1 unit on Cruz Carbajal (+195) vs Mike Oliver

I am leery of a homecourt Decision for Mike. Surprisingly, Mike looks a lot bigger at the weigh-in photo op than CC did. Mike is a Koufax, you know how I feel about that. Mike has the reach edge as well. But Cruz has the large Experience & Resume` edge's. Cruz has the Power edge, & has generally proven hard to Stop.

Tough fight to call.
I'd like a Mike via Decision Prop. But Cruz at basically 2:1 is pretty tempting as well. Only seeing the Cruz side however. So I'll try an UP, if the Outcome Props don't open, which gives me a little more leeway. Interesting u.card, I thought that the old aTm LB, & then Cowboy LB was in boxing now, until my boxrec window opened.

GLA!
bigeiii

UP=winner!

I don't know what version of Cruz that was? Turning old b4 our eyes? Over-trained? Maybe a bit plain ole sick/or hurting? But that was clearly not Cruz's best nite. MO on the other hand was more polished than I expected after watching him this afternoon. Quicker & slicker as well. I'm not sure MO is ready for IBF champ Perez? (who is a boxer of a Southpaw himself). I'd have to pick Perez to prevail in that one. But MO is better than I expected. He's fairly hungry as well; & that can go a long way in a all you can eat sport such as Boxing.

(nice undercard rumble as well)


bigeiii

1 unit on Cruz Carbajal (+195) vs Mike Oliver 


I got ktfo last night and fell asleep in my Lazy Boy in the 7th round, but from reading it looks like Oliver just had too much energy.  That wasn't the same pressuring Carvajal that I remember and his activity was already dropping when I fell asleep.  Nice win for Oliver, but somebody has to teach this kid not to hold so much or no network will want to pick him up.

I'm leaning towards FresO for FNF's. He's the less unimpressive of these 2. Though EC, as a Lefty, w/ the Voltage edge, kan't be counted totally out. I need the weigh-in to make this pick.

Pretty good u.card bout between EA & DE. EA is a little (naturally) bigger, which may be all the edge he needs.

I like both Japanese chalks.

Matagwa has the look & feel of a bit of a trap to me. Rog has seen his share of frontline duty over the years inRing. Aldo has never been stopped. The prob' here is that Aldo does not step up very well, he tends to get beat nearly all the time when he does. Leaning towards Rog's, as he has home-court, the classier Resume` & Experience level. But when will he grow old? Might try an UP here.

Enzo & the "Big Truck" is another trappy looking fight to me. Wayne is a Lefty, he can bang, & he should know that it is at best unknown if he'd get the close Rounds in Ireland. Enzo does not have a Chin made of Iron. But he is a big ole Cruiserweight. Might make for a Total play.

GLA!
bigeiiii

Futures I'm on:

1 unit on Forrest (+220) vs Baldomir
.20 of a unit on Azille (+850) vs Bell

Brief recaps of the plays:

Morua-De Jesus Under
I think De Jesus wears Morua down late for a possible stoppage and at these odds it's got some value.  I know Morua went the distance with Torres, but I don't think much of a fighter who has been stopped by Witter.

Castillo play
Simply value here and an anti Fres play.  I know Fres has the promoter and home-field edge, but if Mora can win rounds off of him you better believe that Castillo has a decent chance at outhustling him.  Plus, this is a man who froze and held against an ancient Holy.

Katsidis-Amonsot Under
My largest play in a while.  If you have seen Katsidis fight you know why, he will take you out early, but he has also there to be taken.  What a war that he had with Earl.  I have heard that Amonsot is a huge lightweight so who knows maybe he will land something big early, because we know that he can fold up early as evidenced by his two losses.  All I know is I don't see this lasting long.

Enzo-Braithwaite Under
I see a slug fest here as the cruiserweight division provides another great matchup.  Both guys can drop the hammer and neither has a chin to brag to mom about.

M'Baye-Rees Over
I actually think that Rees will give M'baye a decent go, I got ahold of M'baye fight against Kotelnik and I was looking to fade him in some capacity and will do so with the over here small.  No, Rees doesn't have an impressive resume, but he has been 12 before and I see him sticking around on Saturday.

I agry on that Cruiser Total Fbs. Could/should be a dynomite fight, for as long as it lasts.
I understand the Heavyweight upset try. I'm still evaluating that one.

GLA!
bigeiii

Interesting to see the reports of the mêlée at the FresO vs. EC pressor (over who would get the last word on the mike). Also interesting to see that EC looks in better shape, possibly as much as 10 lbs. lower for FNF's. EC's raft story is quite compelling, so I can cheer for EC the human being. & EC may finally realize that at age 36, he'd better kick the pig & get going. Fres has the Reach edge, maybe a bit of a skill edge as well. I wasn't gonna do this, but I'm gonna reach a bit, & play the Points Line of EC+12.5, which basically covers three 8-4 scorecards against, & of course any EC win.

GLA!
bigeiii

I'm watching ESPN2 FNF's right now. EC really has lost Weight. That's almost a in-shape looking EC I just saw sitting in his lockeroom preFight. He may or may not win, but he actually looks better. Surprised------>bigeiii


bigeiii

Should have gone w/ my lean. EC did not do very well. Cuts did not help, but he was cleanly beaten. Props to Fres backers.

bigeiii

I don't know why? But I'm not complaining, but my EC pts. line has been graded "canceled". Hope your's was to.


bigeiii

Rog'Mtawga & his UP both hit. But not by much. Split, & RM may indeed be on the verge of wearing out, as Aldo is not exactly an oft' ducked Featherweight, & he did not have the homecourt going for him up in Philly 2nite. That could have been the diff' right there. I have to say that might be even more luck for me 2nite.


bigeiii

Can you help me with this one Fullbrights? How did you get Forrest at +220 ? Everywhere I see has him around -150. Any help would be appreciated 

That's what I was thinking ccl. Some preview I read this week said it was for some north-south, international, mid-Atlantic, lessor Latino regional/local kinda Belt. (no smack, but it was an alphabet organization even I'd never heard of). Soooooooo......it seemed like a 12 Rounder to me, as 12 is the magic Round count for Title Bouts thesedays. But I'm not upset, I lucked out, nothing mo' nothin' less, that is all that twas.


bigeiii

.50 of a unit under 9.5 rounds (+245) in Morua-De Jesus
.25 of a unit on Castillo (+320) vs Oquendo 


Losing night last night with both small bets landing in the pooper.  Oquendo is so beatable, no wonder Vander was able to do so, fighting in that style will not get him a televised fight anytime soon.

Hopefully today will right the ship for the week.

5dimes actually opened the number on Forrest at +250, but by the time I got my bet down he was already down to +220.  Shortly thereafter Forrest was at +160 while Baldomir was at -200 for about a 24 hour period, but then the Forrest money continued to flow in apparently as the price gradually moved in the direction it is today.  I think 5dimes probably had a lot of people scratching their heads when they opened the number on this one.

The same kind of thing happened in Diaz-Morales, but not to quite an extreme.  I didn't bet the fight, but apparently a lot of people were on Diaz on the opening number of +160 because the price quickly moved to Diaz as the fave at -145.

Nah, just the 3 plays that are listed above, one of which is on the undercard.  I wanted to play Linares, but didn't like the number at -200; then I thought about playing an outcome prop, but with Larios's tendency to cut I again thought otherwise.