Plays for the Week (In need of some winners)

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last two weekends played: -5.7 units (-$570)
2008 to Date: -19.34 units (-$1,934)

Well last week was bad to say the least, definitely a Saturday night that I want to forget about. Hopefully this week is much better.

Tonight
.35 of a unit to win .95
Castaneda-Matthysse over 7.5 (+150)
Vasquez-Landeros over 9.5 (-205)
Small action parlay for tonight.  Castaneda and Landeros are durable and I think will extend their unproven glitzy KO opponents deep into their fights tonight.

Tomorrow
1.25 units to win 1.3
Kirkland-Cortez under 5.5 (-230)
Guzman (-235) vs Campbell
Left over from last week's carnage.  I see now that Guzman has come in pretty heavy, I am going to stand pat, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  That is a lot of weight to take off in a short time, you have to think that may affect Guzman tomorrow night.

1 unit on under 9.5 rounds (+315) in Casa-Marquez
Value play here.  I don't think this line should be where it is because of a couple of factors.  Casa is as dirty as they come; leading with his head, elbows, and various other foul play are all in his repertoire.  I can see a cut opening up on Marquez, points taken away, or other strange stuff happening here.  Kats was tailor made for Casa and even then I was on edge for the fight because he faded for a couple of rounds, who knows how old he actually is; father time could play a role here also.  There are countless props on this fight, I will have to take some time to sort through them.

.40 of a unit on DRAW (+1600) in Mora-Forrest
I barely missed out less time, I think this fight will be another tight one without any KD's.

I'm sure that I will have some more, I still can't get over how many props there are.

Like the under. If Marquez is on, I just don't see Casamayor taking if for twelve rounds. Katsidis knocked him halfway to the cheap seats. He's not going to have a highlight reel KO but I see no reason he can't wear him down unless the extra weight is an issue, which I doubt.

Good luck this week. Agree with you on the props. Theres almost too many to sort out.

Just the parlay that is left over from last week.  Looks like the fight may not even happen now due to health concerns from Guzman's camp.  I just took Nate ITD because there is definite value on that now.

.35 of a unit to win .95
Castaneda-Matthysse over 7.5 (+150)
Vasquez-Landeros over 9.5 (-205)
The Castaneda fight was a wash.  Landeros was awfully competitive, but that Vasquez shot ended it in a hurry.

A few more plays....

1 unit on Campbell ITD (+565)
Sounds like the fight might not be happening seeing as how Guzman had to go get fluids last night.  Hate to bank on a bad health situation, but I think this line provides a ton of value now if the fight goes on.

.75 of a unit on leader after round 3 on Lederman's card loses fight or draw (+230) in Casa-JMM (official fight results for winner)
My thinking here is that Casa will carry the early rounds and fade as the fight goes on.

1 unit on Forrest to win by decision (+225) (Greek Version)
I think the later rounds will take a role reversal here, Forrest will be fresher with a better training situation and Mora will tire with the extra weight that had to be taken off.
.75 of a unit on Leader after round 3 on Lederman's card loses fight or draw (+150) (Official results for winner)
This line just seems strange to me as NJ pointed out, I will take +150 on either fighter after round 3.  I doubt that it will be a 3-0 sweep for either one, so it will be close.
.10 of a unit on Majority DRAW (+5500)
I should have probably split up my draw money between split draw and majority draw for a better payout seeing as how unanimous draws just don't happen.  Longshot, but worth $10.

Powerball Parlay
.15 of a unit to win 14.22
Casa-JMM Won't Go (+215)
Forrest (-110)
Ortiz-Arrieta under 7.5 (-270)
Julio Cesar Garcia (-185)
Campbell (+168)
Bradley by 12rd decision (-145)
Rojas (-150)
In hindsight I should have split my draw money between split draw and majority draw for a better possible payout, because unanimous draws are as rare as they come.  Unlikely, but call me a sucker.

I wondered where that majority draw write up went, lol, it was at the bottom.

Well, the Guzman-Campbell bets are null and void.  What a rediculous situation, how does a fighter with time to prepare not make weight by 3.5 pounds when he is moving up a weight class and drys himself out to the point of dehydration.  This is the same guy that was fighting at 126 three years ago and had a fight at 121 the year before, what a joke.

1 unit parlay to win 2.38
Ortiz-Arrieta under 7.5 (-320)
Julio Cesar Garcia (-190)
Bradley by 12rd decision (-145)

.25 of a unit parlay to win 8.36
Ortiz-Arrieta under 7.5 (-320)
Julio Cesar Garcia (-190)
Bradley by 12rd decision (-145)
Forrest (-110)
Marquez ITD (+433)

Trying to hit a couple scratch off tickets tonight.  Maybe lady luck will be on my side.

Hey FB.  Thumbs down on the cancellation.  That had FOY writtten all over it.  D'oh! 

Good luck on the parlays.  You ordering the PPV?

Nah, I'll have the Showtime card on the tube flipping back and forth between Oh St.-USC and will have streamtv up on the computer for the PPV.  I have a hard time validating paying $50 for this card, it's HBO championship boxing material, but in no way PPV worthy.

Did you see my post in your thread from last week?  Didn't know if you knew what restaurant in Austin I was talking about.

My thoughts exactly on the PPV.  So mad this thing is off tonight.  Had been looking forward to it for months and reserved the night just for it. 

Let me check the post from last week.  Been super busy lately and not around here enough. 

Ahh, yes, of course - Chuys.  I love that place.  Make sure to ask for the creamy jalapeno salsa if youre there again.  Its worth going there for that alone.  My girlfriend and I always get extra.  They have a sister restaurant called Hula Hut on Lake Austin thats a great spot to check out too.  More seafood than Chuys, but very similar menus. 

Why did I throw Garcia into all those parlays?  Why I thought this guy might be a legit prospect is beyond me, I let him slide for that non-effort on ESPN against Browning.  He was the far bigger man and was fighting a 31 year old trial horse tonight and loses decisively by decision.  Horrible call on my part.  Watch everything else come through now.

I feel like an idiot. 

Well, 1.4 units down the tube thanks to Garcia's non-effort.

Looks like some late money is coming in on Forrest including more from me.  Call me a sucker, but I really think the last minute weight loss for Mora will leave him flat.

2.2 units on Forest (-110)

.20 of a unit to win 3.31
Forest by 12rd decision (+229)
Marquez ITD (+433)

Nice performance by Bradley, should be an easy verdict.

Yep, that's it, I think the people with me pronounced it "chewies."  We also ate at some unreal BBQ joint about 20-30 minutes outside of town.  The food was family style and rediculous; the atmosphere was pretty cool too (I think they had a brown bag policy).  Yeah, I would love to get back there.

Nice!  It's a great spot isn't it?  The bbq place, was it it The Salt Lick?  They have the best bbq sauce in the world as far as Im concerned. 

Yep, I think that's the one.  It was out in the middle of nowhere.

Looks like the Lederman card bets will be no action.  He's not even there on the telecast I'm watching, but I thought it was just because it was the Canadian version.  According to the guys on Max though he isn't there.

I watching it on streamtv.

Boy does Forrest look good, he may actually stop Mora , hope not.