Plays for the Week (FNF, Telefutura, Showtime, HBO PPV)

Finally a busy boxing week after a couple of off weeks.  Tons of nice action on TV, you got Telefutura and FNF on Friday; Saturday MSG is broadcasting the Polish card during the afternoon then you have Showtime and HBO PPV that night.  Lots of chalk out there if you like to lay the white, but you know how I roll; taking a few small flat bet stabs on value dogs this week along with Thompson and Judah plays.


Friday Action
.20 of a unit on Lynes (+270) vs Morrison
.20 of a unit on Bailey (+340) vs Herman N.
.20 of a unit on Reyes (+245) vs Segura

Parlay
.20 of a unit to win .60
Over 9.5 rounds in Lynes-Morrison (-245)
Under 10.5 rounds in Pascal-Cruz (-185)
Under 9.5 rounds in Regan-McCrary (-115)

Saturday Action
.20 of a unit on Pineda (+850) vs Adamek
.10 on Muriqi by decision (+2200) vs Tarver
.20 on Muriqi +17.5 Points Handicap (+450)
1.95 units on Thompson (-130) vs Foreman
.50 of a unit on Zab (+350)
.45 of a unit on Zab (+280)
.25 of a unit on Zab Inside the Distance (+500)
.30 of a unit on Cotto by 12rd Decision (+398)

I'm liking that FNF's side, but I'm hoping to get ITD on the same. You just know who I played on the u.card Fullbrights (chalk-4ooo). Change of opponent be D'ed.

A Reagan(close spelling) in Cali? How can you go against that? ; )
That line looks too low to me. ER ain't all that. But he's better than the guy he's fighting. Both get beat when they step up. But ER has the homefield advantage, he's bigger (this is a Middle bout); which will only amplify his Voltage edge. Are you seeing an ER Stoppage here Fbs?

Why Pineda? (the step up in Weight???)
Why Muirqi? You think Mason Dixon did not win his last one? ; ) But seriously, what are you seeing on that one please?

Far out Zab stuff. But I'm considering the Cotto n0t ITD line, which is friendly to my tastes. Kinda a pseudo Zab bet in my book.

GLA!
bigeiii

Yeah, the under play on the Regan fight as part of the parlay was more or less a Regan ITD play.  Regan is a step above McCrary who really has not talent at all.

Why Pineda and Muriqi?  Value, hence the super small plays.  Pineda can crack a bit and Adamek is moving up; plus I have never been big on Adamek; anybody who goes down to the wire twice with Paul Briggs is not all that great to me, that's why I played Bad Chad against him.  I think Tarver is done as a serious contender; looking back now I don't see why I ever backed him against B-Hop.  Tarver doesn't have his heart in the sport anymore, he's been inactive, he's not looking at the task at hand, and I took at look at his last 4 fights the other day and saw that his legs just don't seem to be there anymore.  Yeah, Tarver could get by on talent and class, but I feel things could be a lot more interesting than the public perceives Saturday.  Hey, it will only cost me 1/3 of a unit if I'm off.

Futures coming up that I' on...

1.26 units on Paulie (Growing up Gotti) Malignaggi by 12rd decision (-126) vs N'Dou
1 unit on Castillo (+160) vs Hatton
1.2 units on under 8.5 rounds (-120) in Klitschko-Brewster

Just watched Countdown to Judah-Cotto again, I amped for Saturday.  The fight probably shouldn't be on PPV, but at least IMO we are guaranteed a heck of a fight, unlike last week's Briggs bore fest.

The atmosphere is going to be sick at Madison Square Saturday night.  They even had to open the top Mezzanine section for the first time in 6 years to accommodate the demand for tickets.  Tensions are going to be high, Brooklyn in the house along with all of Cotto's supporters partying hard in celebration of the Puerto Rican Day Parade the next day.  I hope they brought in plenty of security.

I agry on the MSG Security crew might have a busy nite. That would not shock me. Which is bad/sad, but the way it is. & this one could be pretty dramatic.

Ok on Regan.
I kinda follow that on AT. I don't disagry that he is slipping, & a bit disinterested. Elvir has been down a bit in his Career & he oddly enough has never been past the 8th for a 37 bout Pro??? & Showtime is obviously trying to set up AT vs. Dawson for down the road. That can only help both AT & CD. Muriqi seems to have a little pop to him, & I doubt he gets a Decision. I may try Muriqi ITD, which pays very well, for 1/10th of a unit.

Still waiting to see if any FNF outcome Props open. IF they do not, I'll play RB SU.

GLA!
bigeiii

I tried Morrison this afternoon, w/ Dawson, the Foul Pole (who is fighting a WV insurance salesman), Pascal, & the Cavs on the max point purchase.

Gonna mix Baily, Pineda, & Muriqi in for 0.15 units, w/ the above. Still waiting on Bailey. Reagan & Pascal odds have both dropped a bit this afternoon FYI.

GLA!
bigeiii

Nice to see Bates has gained 17 lbs. of lard to fight the Foul-Pole.
Cotto now looks really Thin to me. But he will IV up.

GLA!
bigeiii

Every1 be aware that FNF's tips-off at 8pm Eastern, not the regulation 9 or 1/2 past.

GLA!
bigeiii

Got it!
Bailey ITD+92o?!? That's way off in my book. IF you think RanBal can win, that' the way to play him out in my book.

GLA!
bigeii

I faded Bailey a bit, as I have him SU & ITD, w/ Ngodjouedoujo(sp) by Decision.
Insulated that w/ Pascal by Decision+184. As Pascal is content to hunt, & peck & box on most nites.

Morrison got beat. : (

GLA!
bigeiii

You gonna play Bailey ITD Fbs???
That's a friendly ROI line by me.

GLA!
bigeiii

The +900 is tempting, but I am standing pat.  I don't know if you have watched Bailey over the past few years, but he is a little more skilled than he used to be and doesn't depend on his power quite as much.  Not saying he could win a close decision up in Canada, but I don't view him as such a one trick pony anymore.  I am just going to stick with what I got and cover both.  Odds are Herman wins a decision off of sheer volume, but his chin has never been tested and Bailey may land the harder more effective blows.  This is a fight IMO where you don't lay much on either fighter.

You should have gone with me on Lynes.  Did you think that Morrison should be laying that kind of chalk?  The odds seemed way out of whack to me.  I didn't have a strong conviction on Lynes, but viewed Morrison as a slight fave only because of the homecourt edge, so I had to take a small piece of those odds.

I feel sorry for fighters like Cruz; an iron noggin, but hardly any skills or handspeed.  Luckily, his corner was there to save him from all the big shots he had taken.  I'm not complaining.  Tonight's parlay pushes through to the final leg. 

Parlay
.20 of a unit to win .60
Over 9.5 rounds in Lynes-Morrison (-245)
Under 10.5 rounds in Pascal-Cruz (-185)
Under 9.5 rounds in Regan-McCrary (-115)


Segura didn't mess around tonight and got rid of Reyes in the first.  I will still look to fade Segura in the future if the odds are right.  He is still very raw and takes too many shots for my liking, although he is a punching machine himself.

.20 of a unit on Reyes (+245) vs Segura

This is a wild scene now.  Knockdowns of both fighters in the first 2 rounds, rain pouring down, lights going out, and fans going nuts.  This may be the best FNF of the year.

Great fight from both Herman N. and Bailey.  Decision coming up.....It's going to be close.

I have not gotten any breaks from the judges in 2007.  Almost every close decision has gone against me and almost everyone has involved me being on the side of the underdog.  Hopefully things will start balancing out now.  My curse on FNF has been Teddy scoring the fight for my underdog fighter.

.20 of a unit on Bailey (+340) vs Herman N.  

The parlay cashes with the 1st round KO by McCrary last night.  I didn't see the knockout coming from that side, but I will take it.  I guess McCrary "Allen Greened" Regan last night with one of his left hooks.  Good start to the week.  A night where I didn't really like anything and played everything small turns out to generate about 3/4 of a unit of profit.

Parlay
  .20 of a unit to win .60
Over 9.5 rounds in Lynes-Morrison (-245)
Under 10.5 rounds in Pascal-Cruz (-185)
Under 9.5 rounds in Regan-McCrary (-115)



Off to the golf course, looking forward to tonight.

Made the very small bet on Pineda simply on value, not knowing how Adamek would hold up to a 200 lb. puncher.  Adamek's legs looked much more sturdy at cruiserweight and he carried the weight very solidly/fluidly.  I think he should stay at cruiser; obviously it was very hard for him to make 175 lbs because he didn't look like a blown up cruiser at all.  I can't say for sure if he could hold up to the Mormeck/Haye type power, but I think he could give Bell a lot of trouble.

.20 of a unit on Pineda (+850) vs Adamek 

Props to MSG and Fox Sports for picking up another European card live.