Plays for the Week

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Last Week: -8.25 units (-$825)
2008 to Date: -13.68 units (-$1,368)

Horrible weekend last week for me, no other way to put it.  Why can't Sechew fight K. Finley every Friday?  A great weekend from a fan's perspective, but not for my wallet.  I still don't see how we got 12 rounds out of that epic last week, talk about warriors.  That is a fight that you didn't want to miss watching live, I would have hated to catch a replay of that knowing the result.

The road back starts this week.  Haven't really played much yet because the odds aren't out, but I do like Haye and I have had Johanneson in my futures for a few weeks.  I might play McQueef against Huggy Bear if the line keeps rising.  No solid take on Maskaev-Peter.  Should Peter win?  Yes, but those three KD's last time out were disturbing.  The over there is tempting yet scary at the same time.  May play a Diaz prop if we get them.

1.65 units on Haye (-165) vs Enzo
Chin concerns of course, but Enzo has them also and Haye really does everything better.

.50 of a unit on Johanneson (+300) vs Mitchell
A passing of the torch type fight, but Carl can punch.  I think this is a dangerous fight for Mitchell early.

Futures

Added more on JMM, took Casa at two different numbers, and took the Hopkins decision prop at thegreek.

1 unit on Marquez (+155) vs Manny P.
2 units on Marquez (+160) vs Manny P.
1 unit on Casamoyer (+175) vs Katsidis
1 unit on Casamoyer (+170) vs Katsidis
1 unit on Hopkins (+250) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins (+220) vs Calzaghe
.50 of a unit on Hopkins by decision (+325)
5.6 units on under 9.5 rounds (-140) in Cotto-Gomez

Haye at less than -200 on this fight is a bargain. I'm beginning to feel more and more strongly that he knocks Enzo out. There is no comparison in the level of competition they have faced. It's true that Haye has looked vulnerable getting hit by shorter men walking him down. I certainly would like to see him hold his left hand above his waist, but Enzo is an inch taller than Haye. He will pay a heavy price walking in, and frankly, I've seen nothing on film to suggest that he is an exceptional fighter. This fight is simply too important for Haye's future for him to lose. He's made the weight before, and he will be fine doing it one last time.

Sorry, but -165 isn't big chalk. You may not feel like making a big play, but Haye is only a slight favorite according to the books. I'll see what happens at the weigh in, but I believe Haye will prepare himself properly and win fairly easily.

You like McCline? Im tempted to bet on Ruiz actually, the guy just always finds a way to win. He has a good chin and a horrific style that let's him hang on even if hurt. And McCline isn't the puncher he looks like. I see McCline getting frustrated and mentally slipping while Ruiz eeks out ugly rounds and wins a decision.

I’m really interested in your reasoning behind backing Casamayor, I was planning on slamming the Kat line, and adding .5-1 units of Kat inside. This is not the Casamayor of yesteryear, he’s older, slower, with much lower workrate and stamina. I didn’t see his fight vs Santa Cruz but reports were not generous. Katsidis’ workrate is better, his chin is better, his stamina is better, he hits harder and is faster. Casa might play the counter-puncher but Kat’s work rate should win him a decision or a late stoppage. Kat can win enough rounds on work rate alone to get the decision even if Casa is accurate and effective with counters.

The only way I can see Cas winning is a gift decision, but Kat has more respect and marketing power than Santa Cruz does. 

The better bet on the night was Witter 10 billion units to beat Dhop at any line, but it’s been taken off the card unfortunately.

Most guys Ive spoken with him are on Haye or no play. Waiting for the weigh-in as LetMeSpin noted is smart, I’ll be on Haye as well unless the weigh-in goes bad.

I'm on Maskaev small, not sure what else Ill play. Some books have under 6.5 +120, others have over 7.5 at +120, if you’re willing to take that 3 minute risk. Ill probably play the over only.

Tough weekend to call.

Good luck

Agree, that's why I haven't really played him for any more than I have.  I am looking to see what he looks like at the scales.

Seems to be some controversy regarding the weigh-in time.

I said if the odds rise a bit I would be tempted to take McCline, at north of +175 or even more so +200 he has some value.  Ruiz may ugly his way to a win, but this fight really is a toss up. 

I knew that I would get a few ? regarding the Casa play.  Listen, I know what you are saying probably better than anyone seeing as how I think I was one of the few that played Santa Cruz over him.  Talk about a screw job.

This isn't going to be about marketing power.  Katsidis is simple to figure out and he is made for Casamoyer's style.  You or I could land a few solid shots before we called it a night against him, the guy is soooo easy to touch up.  His war with Graham Earl should really be put into prospective now after what Khan did to Graham.  The guy has fought no one and it is common knowledge that Katsidis has really been struggling against southpaws in sparring at the Wild Card, even Doug Fischer has documented it a few times in his pieces at Maxboxing (the latest being today). Casamoyer may get caught with something big (not likely seeing as how is chin is pretty good), but if he isn't then he should win the fight in my opinion.  At +160/+170 it's a no brainer for me, but I no doubt I am in the minority.  Go ahead and slam the Katsidis line though, I won't complain one bit.

The reason I went ahead and played Casamoyer now is that I didn't think the number would rise any more then it already has especially with writer's opinions out there about Kat's sparring, but I may be wrong.  I know that I wouldn't complain if I get could get some more down at +200ish.

Good explanation. You have more details on it than I do, Im opting for no play as of now, there should be some good write-ups floating around soon. I was very impressed with Kat's performance against Amonsot, but Amonsot fought his fight and was doing better as a boxer early. Though Amonsot has more power than current Casa. I see stamina coming in to play here.

Ruiz was -125 last night, now he's -210. No value in him anymore, could have been a terrific scalp.

Adding
Maskaev KO 18 to win 150, 5d
Maskaev decision 16 to win 144, greek

I don't think he'll win, but the lines are too good. Also looking at over 6.5 -120.

Exactly, and what kind of a fighter was Amonsot?  He was coming off of a 1 round KO loss a few fights before.

Of course Amonsot was a southpaw also if my memory serves me correctly, but that isn't what's playing into this.  Amonsot's southpaw style wasn't the type that is going to give Katsidis fits, he isn't a tidy boxer like Casa.  Casamoyer may be old, but he still know how to stay at a distance and box.  I think he will counter Katsidis all night from the outside.  I had heard that Speedy Gonzalez had been boxing Katsidis's ears off in sparring and Doug's articles validated this further.  I didn't know that he had been been sparring the 118 lb southpaw Gabi, but that made me feel good when I read that Diosdado had been holding his own pretty well with Michael.

From Doug Fisher's article yesterday.....

"The naturally smaller fighters are doing so well from their southpaw stances that more than a few observers at the Wild Card give the aging but still crafty Cuban a decent shot at winning the fight.

“He’s a brawler,” Paul Mayorquin, one of Roach’s assistants, said of Katsidis. “His fight is definitely on the inside because he has so much power – his strength is unbelievable – but it’s clear to me that he’s not used to boxers or southpaws at all. If Casamayor can keep moving and keep the fight on the outside, he’ll beat him.”"

My curiosity is piqued. Can you give me the link to that article? Im assuming its from maxboxing, but cant find it. Unless it's in the paid section? Thanks

btw Diaz -500 at greek, probably adding 2.5 to win .5

No, it's a free one.  It was in his So Cal notebook; a series that he puts together a couple of times a month.

Link

Good read I wonder if it will be warm enouf for B-Hopp  in Caly.

YTD: -13.3 units

I'm in a rut, but I want to keep tracking my plays, so I'm posting these without analysis.

Peter ITD (-184): 3 units to win 1.64 units
Parlay: Mitchell, Peter, Mashaba, Diaz, Haye ITD: 1 unit to win 3.2 units

Haye looked good coming in 2 pounds under. If anything Enzo looked the more emaciated of the two, but I suppose we already knew who looked better in the mirror.

A few more plays for this weekend.  I know this has been the year of the over it seems, but I played a few unders earlier that I saw some value in.  Nothing big and all at + odds.  Played Cruz at thegreek; +600 was awfully big.  Took Haye for some more also.

.35 of a unit on Cruz (+600) vs Mashaba
I thought +600 was awfully wide; Cruz is usually pretty game and Mashaba has never fought stateside.

1.25 units on under 11.5 (+200) in Naito-Wonjongkam
Cuts could come into play and I think Wonjongkam goes after him early and tries to make a statement.

.60 of a unit on under 9.5 rounds (+325) in Mtagwa-Valtierra
Didn't see there first fight, but I really thought Valtierra looked like a fighter at the end of his rope against Litzau and Mtagwa seems to be headed for the same fate.  If it's a typical Mtagwa fight, I think one could break.

1 unit on under 11.5 rounds (+190) in Kraj-Godfrey
That's a long way for two fighters who both have some pop and have only been 12 three times between the two of them.

1.75 units on Haye (-175)
That's all for me on the Hayemaker.

.60 of a unit on under 9.5 rds. (+325) in Mtagwa-Valtierra
A lot of heavy leather landed, but both held up well.  A few really reckless exchanges, but I only thought Valtierra was hurt in the 7th.  Mtagwa really knows how to wing them from the hip doesn't he? A lot of clinching by Valto in the last few rounds.  Pretty good fight, I had it 96-93 Mtagwa.

.35 of a unit on Cruz (+600) vs Mashaba
1580 punches?  Do you think Cruz was in great shape for this one?  In all seriousness I thought Teddy Atlas was way off of his game for the main event.  I can't comment on the controversial undercard fight because I was watching the Mtagwa fight on Telefutura, but his 117-112 card here for Mashaba was WAYYYY off.  It was hilarious when in the 10th round Atlas and Tessitore to a degree were calling for Cruz's corner to keep a close eye on him as if he was in some danger.  LOL, he was winning the round on his way to sweeping the last four on my card.  What in the world were they watching?  I wanted a stoppage in that last fearing the judges would side with the house fighter, but they got it right.  I had it 115-113 just like the two Cruz backers.  Come on Teddy, you need to tighten up your game.  Not very big, but this win felt good.

I hope Bigeiii's okay.  I've never not seen him in chime in with some faves.

You can't stand Hopkins, can you?

Yep, Haye is jacked.  I know he hates making cruiser, but he is fooling himself if he thinks his chin holds up to big heavyweight punchers.

Hang in there buddy, 2008 has been a struggle for me as well.  It's a two month window though, long way to go.

1.25 units on under 11.5 (+200) in Naito-Wonjongkam
Not any details on the fight really, this was more a value play based off of their past history.  Not much value as a loser though, lol.

On to Germany.