Plays for the Week

2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
2007 Results: +42.25 units (+$4,225)
Two weeks ago: +1.2 units (+$120)
2008 to Date: -3.35 units (-$335)

Been out of the loop for a week.  Hope last week was profitable for everyone, I'll have to look around and see how it went down.  I didn't have any action last week as I was out of town visiting family for Thanksgiving.  Back to business this week with the big PPV and a couple of other minor televised cards.  I've got a good bit of chips for me, want to finish the year with a bang.

Friday
1 unit on under 7.5 rounds (+110) in Farrell-Kauffman
2 units on under 7.5 rounds (+100) in Farrell-Kauffman
I like this play, I just think that the layoff will really show on the 30 year old Farrell and he may gas rather quickly tomorrow night coming in 30 pounds over his career high weight.  Kauffman has a solid amateur background and Farrell can be a bit sloppy at times.  Both guys can punch a bit and I think that Farrell will let it all hang out knowing he probably can't go rounds and win a decision.  The jury is still out on Kauffman, but he does need to stay away from those teenage girls or a jury may put him away next time.

Saturday
3.7 units on DLH (-185)
1.5 units on under 9.5 rounds (+160)
1.5 units on fight won't start round 12 (+102)
.40 of a unit on DLH in rounds 4-6 (+947)
.40 of a unit on Pac in rounds 10-12 (+1685)
Call me simple, but I think this is simply the story of the bigger man showing just that in the ring Saturday night.  I mean Pac looks like a midget compared to Oscar and he has moved up so far so quickly.  I think there will be some wobbly moments for Manny due to DLH left hooks.  Pac will throw a bunch of punches for the first few rounds, but IMO Oscar will weather the initial storm just fine and then start to make things dicey for Manny.  Small hedge on the late rounds KO for Manny just in case I am way off and Manny is right with Oscar when the Oscar late round DLH fade sets in.

3 units on under 9.5 rounds (-200) in Ortiz-Resto
Victor is a force to be reckoned with and is all action.  I don't think Resto has enough power to keep Victor at bay for long.

.75 of a unit on Rogan (+460) vs A-Farce
Audley is a head case and can lose to anybody on any given night where he has a mental lapse.  I think it's worth a stab.

Had to throw in one of my usual long shot parlay spins.
.40 of a unit to win 8.15
Abregu (-360)
Kauffman (-550)
Over 9.5 (-370) in McCloskey-Lines
DLH win only (-185)
Under 9.5 rounds (-200) in Ortiz-Resto
Froch (-265)
Under 7.5 (-190) in Fagan-Khan
Cunningham (-225)
Under 9.5 (-170) in Torres-Holt

May have more, gotta sort through some of these props.  Looking forward to getting into some of the threads in more depth to see what the strong opinions look like.

Out of town with family man, betting on boxing really wasn't on my mind especially with such a big weekend on the horizon.  It was nice to have a weekend without hitting the computer for updated odds and results. Hope last week was profitable for you, I caught the Williams replay on-demand, he was just way too much for Verno.  That slug Arreola put on a fun one too, I was surprised he went down from that shot from Walker.  He seriously needs to get his weight in check if he is serious.

Good to hear we are on the same side Saturday night.  Yeah, I think that's my largest cumulative total in a while, I had a bit more than that on the under in Cotto-Gomez so hopefully this fight treats me the same.  Maybe I'm missing something here, but I think size will be the biggest factor in the outcome Saturday night and we all know who that favors.

WTL, just saw where you cashed on Williams ITD last week.  Good stuff.

Same to you Cee Money.

Come on guys, I don't own the forum just a long time frequent poster.  A lot of the guys that were here when I first started posting have come and gone, some to a site that one of them created.  New crews will always roll in though, much like ya'll.  Wish some of the old timers would start posting again, even A2C in infrequent now and mayweatherfan where are you at on this fight besides the pending ticket I was jealous of after Vegas offered odds.  This place was quite the hub when guys like Boxeo, Bigeiii, Alwayswin, electric ape, knish, and many more I'm sure that I'm not remembering were imparting knowledge here.  Covers will always be my home base, I think I just like the layout.

That said, hope you guys enjoyed holding the interim belt for a week.  Kidding of course.

I miss those guys too. I was wondering where a2c went. He was/is rock solid. However, it was shocking to see the boxing forum bumping on a Thursday night. I'm sure we have it correct this weekend. The question is why is everyone so high on Antonio? Shane is a piss poor matchup for a new hero. I picked him to beat Cotto ITD - but he won't beat Shane. He'll catch clean shots and lose far too many rounds before he can do any damage. Speed, experience, heart, skill, etc. Shane won't need the juice. Another gift dog line from the books based on Margarito hype. Early lean - Shane via VERY clear points.

Kauffman might screw your parley, he is really not worth the juice

I'm on Fatty

Yeah man.....I was always just a long time watcher and post my boxing plays on the X.....Always enjoyed checking you, A2c and HackAttack. out.....Goodluck this week man

Well, the small parlay goes up in smoke before it starts as I just saw the thread on ESB for the Lynes-McCloskey fight.  $40 lost there.  Not surprised by McCloskey winning, but I am surprised that he beat Lynes up bad enough to force him to quit after 9.  Congrats to anyone who played that under at the big plus odds.  I thought -370 on the over was about right on par for this one and really only saw a cut ending this one early.  Oh well, just $40.

That weighin was tame for DLH-Pac and for me it really just solidified my opinion even more.  Is George Lopez a cheeser or what?

Saw this on fightnews this morning and I couldn't help but kill over laughing.  This promoter in Miami for the Telemundo card tonight looks exactly like Richard Schaeffer (Golden Boy CEO) plus an extra 100 pounds of fat.

Richard Shaeffer as a porker

Excellent reasoning Coweringbeef, strong takes.  I take it you are a strong believer of good ol Graham Houston's odds.  Graham is a top notch writer and info hunter, but I think he's off here in seeing this as a close fight.  The odds are right at where I would put them.  Farrell lost to that big goof Marrone last time out on Shobox.  Marrone is awful even for great white hope heavyweight standards and Farrell came into that one 40 pounds less.

Moot point now for me as the parlay is already in the losers bin.  I am much more interested in the under cashing here.

Got down on some more......

.30 of unit on Estrada ITD (+1016)
Had to take out a bit on this against the padded record of Abregu.

$50 more on the under in the Kauffman fight....
.50 of a unit on under 7.5 rounds (+110)

1.5 units on DLH ITD (+150)

.10 of a unit to win 5.16
Under 8.5 in Estrada-Abregu (-155)
Under 7.5 in Farrell-Kauffman (+110)
Jones (-1500)
Alvarez ITD (-121)
DLH ITD (+150)
Under 9.5 in Ortiz-Resto (-220)
Froch (-260)
Khan-Fagan under 7.5 (-190)

1.5 units on under 7.5 rounds (+110) in Farrell-Kauffman
2 units on under 7.5 rounds (+100) in Farrell-Kauffman
.30 of unit on Estrada ITD (+1016)
.50 of a unit lost on the long shot parlays

Awesome start to the weekend, as ghostkid said in the other thread; wish they were all as easy as the Kauffman bout.  I would have really liked to have gotten that Estrada-Abregu under because I have a gut feeling that the rest of that $10 parlay wins out.

Your reasoning was sound for a Farrell win, the only problem was it pointed to a win over Kobeyashi in the Nathan's Hot Dog eating contest not in the ring on Shobox.

Just giving you a hard time man, but seriously how could you bet on Farrell with what he tipped the scales at?

Good to hear your opinion hasn't changed.  I was jealous of that line you got, but now it actually appears odds by fight time may be close to it.  Always like being on the same side with you.  Sounds like most of the regulars are on the same page here, definitely makes me feel even better on our reasoning.  I don't think we are missing anything here, but the public sure seems to be.  I knew his countrymen would be all over Manny as usual, but it seems like every casual fan of the sport I talk to thinks Manny will win.

Internet has been down throughout the day, just tried for like the 30th time and boom botta bing it's a miracle.

What a day, just saw that Rogan took care of Fraudley; told you guys that anyone could beat him on any given night.  The guy is a complete headcase, the Steve Kim original nickname couldn't be a better fit, I thought it would be of the KO nature if he lost, either way; boo yah.

Man talk about a beat down in the Ortiz fight, that was more stress free then the Ferrell under.  Resto should hang them up for good this time. 

Awesome weekend headed to the main event in a few minutes, if it treats me right this an all-timer.  Hard to gripe with the way the weekend has gone, but those small long shot parlays are going to have the one loser kill them.  They are fun to cash with minimal risk, but the one result loser sucks.  War Oscar.  Let's do this.

3 units on under 9.5 rounds (-200) in Ortiz-Resto
.75 of a unit on Rogan (+460) vs A-Farce

A good many people over at the house.  Seems like everyone is more excited for this one then DLH-Mayweather.

I just got owned on this one.  Wowzas!!!  I'm pissed, in awe, impressed, and embarrassed for being strong on DLH all at the same time.  Congrats all Pac bettors, great call.  What a complete beatdown.  I guess I should have put much more stock into DLH getting touched much more then I ever thought he would in the Forbes fight and much less on the size disparity.  Don't want to take anything away from Manny, but I think a lot of guys could have beat the version of DLH that I saw tonight.  I'll quiver into a corner now, just joking.  At least I won good bit back on the under and "won't go" to cover some Oscar losses, wish it could have gone one more so I would have also hit the Pac KO prop hedge.  Still a winning weekend, so I won't complain at the awful call on DLH as a side.

me too bro...but you know we will get back

You weren't the only one.