Posted:
#1
2007: 52.31 units risked, +12.45 units (24% return)
Allan Green vs. Rubin Williams
Under 7.5 (-155)
1 unit
Some thought that Green was overrated after a lackluster performance against Edison Miranda in March 2007, but later Green revealed that he'd been suffering from a painful colon disorder, which obviously prevented him from being at his best against Miranda. Following successful surgery, Green's first healthy bout came against Darrell Woods in July, when he viciously knocked out the veteran in less than a half round. Green followed that up with a second-round KO over Sherwin Davis in October. Green appears primed for a possible rematch against Miranda later this year. Although 31-year-old Rubin Williams' record (29-2) appears respectable at first glance, he's definitely outclassed in this fight. You might remember Williams from the first episode of last season's Contender. Williams embarrassed himself on the reflex test, in which the fighters were assigned to touch spots on an electronic board as soon as they lit up. Williams looked confused and slow, which could be one of the reasons why he had problems in his last bout against journeyman Antwun Echols (a draw). When Williams gets pushed into the ropes, he has trouble blocking his opponents' punches, and this is probably explained by his relatively poor reflexes. That's a recipe for disaster against Green, who combines good hand speed with punching power. If Green gets Williams into a corner, I doubt that Williams can successfully defend himself. As a result, I don't see Williams getting past the 6th round in this one.
Lamont Peterson vs. Antonio Mesquita
Under 9.5 (+190)
.6 unit
Although Lamont is not known as a big puncher (11 KO's in 23 bouts), he's ended his last three inside the distance. While Lamont hasn't been known to possess one-punch KO power, he uses his excellent boxing skills to land numerous punches, which can break an opponent's will. That's what happened the last time I saw Lamont in a September bout against Frankie Santos. I picked the under 9.5 prop at +130 odds in that fight, and Lamont had Santos retiring at the end of six rounds. I didn't see Lamont's last fight against Humberto Toledo, which was a first-round KO, but the fact that it ended so early indicates that the 23-year-old could be developing more power at this stage of his career. If so, then free-swinging Antonio Mesquita had better watch out tonight because he's definitely going to leave himself open for counter shots when he misses. Mesquita has never lost, but he's also never faced a top-notch opponent (in 2000, he beat Juan Carlos Rodriguez by unanimous decision, but that's when Rodriguez was in the midst of a six-fight losing streak). There's a very outside shot at Mesquita landing a bomb that sends Lamont to the canvas, but at 35-years-old, Mesquita's past his prime. Lamont will likely wear down Mesquita with flush punches over the course of the fight, and I expect a stoppage in the 7th or 8th round.
Note: Sportsbook.com is offering these odds at the time of my posting.
Allan Green vs. Rubin Williams
Under 7.5 (-155)
1 unit
Some thought that Green was overrated after a lackluster performance against Edison Miranda in March 2007, but later Green revealed that he'd been suffering from a painful colon disorder, which obviously prevented him from being at his best against Miranda. Following successful surgery, Green's first healthy bout came against Darrell Woods in July, when he viciously knocked out the veteran in less than a half round. Green followed that up with a second-round KO over Sherwin Davis in October. Green appears primed for a possible rematch against Miranda later this year. Although 31-year-old Rubin Williams' record (29-2) appears respectable at first glance, he's definitely outclassed in this fight. You might remember Williams from the first episode of last season's Contender. Williams embarrassed himself on the reflex test, in which the fighters were assigned to touch spots on an electronic board as soon as they lit up. Williams looked confused and slow, which could be one of the reasons why he had problems in his last bout against journeyman Antwun Echols (a draw). When Williams gets pushed into the ropes, he has trouble blocking his opponents' punches, and this is probably explained by his relatively poor reflexes. That's a recipe for disaster against Green, who combines good hand speed with punching power. If Green gets Williams into a corner, I doubt that Williams can successfully defend himself. As a result, I don't see Williams getting past the 6th round in this one.
Lamont Peterson vs. Antonio Mesquita
Under 9.5 (+190)
.6 unit
Although Lamont is not known as a big puncher (11 KO's in 23 bouts), he's ended his last three inside the distance. While Lamont hasn't been known to possess one-punch KO power, he uses his excellent boxing skills to land numerous punches, which can break an opponent's will. That's what happened the last time I saw Lamont in a September bout against Frankie Santos. I picked the under 9.5 prop at +130 odds in that fight, and Lamont had Santos retiring at the end of six rounds. I didn't see Lamont's last fight against Humberto Toledo, which was a first-round KO, but the fact that it ended so early indicates that the 23-year-old could be developing more power at this stage of his career. If so, then free-swinging Antonio Mesquita had better watch out tonight because he's definitely going to leave himself open for counter shots when he misses. Mesquita has never lost, but he's also never faced a top-notch opponent (in 2000, he beat Juan Carlos Rodriguez by unanimous decision, but that's when Rodriguez was in the midst of a six-fight losing streak). There's a very outside shot at Mesquita landing a bomb that sends Lamont to the canvas, but at 35-years-old, Mesquita's past his prime. Lamont will likely wear down Mesquita with flush punches over the course of the fight, and I expect a stoppage in the 7th or 8th round.
Note: Sportsbook.com is offering these odds at the time of my posting.
Good Luck A2C and Bigs. I hope you didn't take to big of a hit on your boys last night Bigeiii.
he should of had him in the 4th
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