Posted:
#1
Hopkins +350, over 11.5 (-220)
I spent a rather boring Friday night at home drinking a few cold ones and watching that damned blue turf after calling in "sick." Anyways, I decided after the game that it would be a good time to watch some Hopkins/Pavlik tapes. Luck for me, HBO replayed Pavlik/Taylor and Tarver/Hopkins. I noticed something that more than caught my eye.
The only time we've ever really seen Pavlik in trouble is against Taylor. Emanuel had the correct game plan, just the wrong fighter. When Pavlik is walking people down with the jab/straight right, he is wide open to get "pot shots" if you get off before him, kind of like jumping a route. He is walking forward.. jump in throw a right hand over the jab or a body shot to throw off the timing, then hold. A Hopkins special. I also feel the only reason he beat Taylor twice was the fact that the Taylor's eye was swollen bad from the jab, making it only a matter of time before a big straight right followed.
In the Tarver/Hopkins fight and the Calzaghe/Hopkins fight Bernard did a great job at landing shot on these fighters on the way in. See the flash knockdown vs Calzaghe or the entire Tarver fight for an example of my theory of disrupting a high pressure fighter's timing. I also feel that Pavlik's chin may still be a problem.
Listen, I know Hopkins is old as dirt and has faded late in recent fights. However, Pavlik looked sluggish with the extra weight in the rematch with Taylor. I think that lack of speed will exploit him even more against a solid vet with a game plan in Hopkins. Also, how will Pavlik be late in the fight after wrestling with Hopkins all night? Can Hopkins really pull this out? Maybe. Is it worth +350? You bet your ass it is.
I spent a rather boring Friday night at home drinking a few cold ones and watching that damned blue turf after calling in "sick." Anyways, I decided after the game that it would be a good time to watch some Hopkins/Pavlik tapes. Luck for me, HBO replayed Pavlik/Taylor and Tarver/Hopkins. I noticed something that more than caught my eye.
The only time we've ever really seen Pavlik in trouble is against Taylor. Emanuel had the correct game plan, just the wrong fighter. When Pavlik is walking people down with the jab/straight right, he is wide open to get "pot shots" if you get off before him, kind of like jumping a route. He is walking forward.. jump in throw a right hand over the jab or a body shot to throw off the timing, then hold. A Hopkins special. I also feel the only reason he beat Taylor twice was the fact that the Taylor's eye was swollen bad from the jab, making it only a matter of time before a big straight right followed.
In the Tarver/Hopkins fight and the Calzaghe/Hopkins fight Bernard did a great job at landing shot on these fighters on the way in. See the flash knockdown vs Calzaghe or the entire Tarver fight for an example of my theory of disrupting a high pressure fighter's timing. I also feel that Pavlik's chin may still be a problem.
Listen, I know Hopkins is old as dirt and has faded late in recent fights. However, Pavlik looked sluggish with the extra weight in the rematch with Taylor. I think that lack of speed will exploit him even more against a solid vet with a game plan in Hopkins. Also, how will Pavlik be late in the fight after wrestling with Hopkins all night? Can Hopkins really pull this out? Maybe. Is it worth +350? You bet your ass it is.
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