Posted:
#1
Martinez+150 300/450 best southpaw pavlik will see to date,and he will have a problem with him.
Pavlik vs. Martinez,oddsmaker error pick
Posted:
#10
For me this is a no play. If Pushed maybe I would choose Pavlik but not with a huge degree of confidence. I think his power will tell in the end and add to the fact Martinez seems to be one of those unlucky fighters I don't think there is much value at betting Martinez at these odds. Also the thoughts of taking Pavlik odds against means I am happy to sit this one out..
Posted:
#11
For me, Pavlik is a one trick pony. He's at his best when he can keep u at the end of his jab and then drop his sneaky cross that often ends fights. He doesn't handle angles very well and his hands are too slow to be good on the inside. If you look at Pavlik's legs, their almost always straight and flat footed(it disgusts me)(No head movement either). This gives him 12 rd stamina but also makes him vulnerable to movement. Pavlik "deals" with angles by taking a half step back to set up the 1-2. The fact that Pavlik is so one-dimensional combined with Sergio's speed of foot and hand is a bad combination for Pavlik backers. Let's not forget that Hopkins set the blueprint on how to beat Pavlik. I see Sergio using lots of movement, feints and then rushing inside of Pavlik's reach and letting his hands go before he slides out. Pavlik will try to pressure but he'll eat counters for that. Sergio is undersized, but he didn't have an ounce of fat for the Williams fight and weighed 166 the next day(without a full training camp). I'm only about 65% confident on Sergio but he's the underdog so I see value. I'm also putting a tiny insurance bet on the draw.
Hey DannoDanger... good one - I deserved it!
Posted:
#14
Quote Originally Posted by MarkDogg:
Martinez+150 300/450 best southpaw pavlik will see to date,and he will have a problem with him.
Martinez+150 300/450 best southpaw pavlik will see to date,and he will have a problem with him.
Pavlik is a legitimate Middleweight obviously. If Martinez had trouble with Margarito he's probably going to have trouble against PAvlik. Martinez will have his moments but it will not be enough to win
Posted:
#16
Quote Originally Posted by frank the tank:
If Martinez had trouble with Margarito he's probably going to have trouble against PAvlik. Martinez will have his moments but it will not be enough to win
If Martinez had trouble with Margarito he's probably going to have trouble against PAvlik. Martinez will have his moments but it will not be enough to win
Dude... Martinez didn't start boxing until he was 19. That Margarito fight was very early in Martinez' career. He's 10 times a better fighter now. Martinez is not the type of fighter who simply does what his trainer says. Martinez studies film and in his Spanish interviews he sounds extremely intelligent. All that being said, if Pavlik wants to win, he needs to pressure pressure pressure. The last southpaw Pavlik fought was an over-the-hill Bronco McKart. McKart got tired, plus he didn't have Martinez' legs or handspeed, but he knocked down Pavlik in the fourth with a right hook and looked good on the inside. However, Pavlik's pressure wore McKart out and Pavlik scored a 6 or 7 round stoppage.
Posted:
#17
DAMN! this fight is right around the corner. i can't wait! This seriously has the potential to be fight of the year. Pavlik will get slapped around a bit early, but what's going to happen when Pavlik lands that monster right. There is no quit in Martinez, but a Pavlik right can put anyone on Queer street. Like I said earlier, I'm only about 60% confident on Martinez but he's the underdog so he'll get a little bit of my money.
Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by DatMofoThere85:
The last southpaw Pavlik fought was an over-the-hill Bronco McKart. McKart got tired, plus he didn't have Martinez' legs or handspeed, but he knocked down Pavlik in the fourth with a right hook and looked good on the inside. However, Pavlik's pressure wore McKart out and Pavlik scored a 6 or 7 round stoppage.
The last southpaw Pavlik fought was an over-the-hill Bronco McKart. McKart got tired, plus he didn't have Martinez' legs or handspeed, but he knocked down Pavlik in the fourth with a right hook and looked good on the inside. However, Pavlik's pressure wore McKart out and Pavlik scored a 6 or 7 round stoppage.
Top be fair, Pavlik was very green at that time. That was the 1st or 2nd x I had seem him fight. As it stands, I see significant improvements since that time.
Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by McNulty:
Top be fair, Pavlik was very green at that time. That was the 1st or 2nd x I had seem him fight. As it stands, I see significant improvements since that time.
Let me start by saying that I'm not trying to sound like a know-it-all - these discussions are for the benefit of all gamblers and predictors.
I'm sorry but I don't see the improvement(please expand). Pavlik's style doesn't change much from fight to fight. Also keep in mind that Martinez posseses better speed, power, stamina, and footwork than a prime Bronco McKart, much less an over-the-hill version - although I do concede that McKart was and is a better infighter than Martinez. Pavlik showed great willpower and pressure in that fight(even if he did lose 3 of the the first 4 rounds).
I seriously believe that lateral movement and "constant angle change" will ALWAYS trouble Pavlik. I'm curious to see if Pavlik changes his style up at all. During the Hopkins fight, Jack Lowe was pleading to Pavlik to throw more punches. I stand by my statement that if Pavlik wants to win he needs to pressure, pressure, pressure and get off first. If he's not punching he needs to be feinting or cutting off the ring. Pavlik can't let the faster fighter dictate the action. Martinez doesn't like being hit so feints and fast "bullshit punches"(used to occupy the opponents mind)(also to set up power shots) would work well. Anyhow, I see Martinez winning the early rounds. After that it's gonna be a war! 
Small bet on Martinez for me.
Posted:
#22
Quote Originally Posted by frank the tank:
I know he has improved. Just saying Pavlik is a much better fighter than MArgarito. How confident would you be betting on some one that couldn't get the decision against cintron.
I know he has improved. Just saying Pavlik is a much better fighter than MArgarito. How confident would you be betting on some one that couldn't get the decision against cintron.
actually forget I mentioned the cintron fight. Forgot about how the ref stopped the fight then Cintron somehow convince the ref to let it go on.
Posted:
#23
Ok finally made a decision on this one..I will be playing the over 11.5 rounds @ evens. As I stated above I am nervous about taking Pavlik on at odds against and Martinez odds are not quite big enough for such an unluckly fighter.
I believe the fight will be a hard fought close fight. I think Martinez is teak tough and I don't think he has the power at 160 to KO Pavlik. While I wouldn't be stunned to see the under hit here, in what could turn out to be a 5 round war, I will play my hunch for low stakes. Good Luck all with your plays. Sorry I have nothing more confident.
Posted:
#25
Same here My heart wants Martinez to win, but my Mind says Pavlik wins.. so my wallet says "NO wager" :-)
If Sergio was a pure 160 fighter I would play him, but he's really a 154 at most.. and Pavlik is really a 168 fighter fighting at 160, the two weight class difference to me is what will be the difference.
I do think this will be a very good fight for however long it lasts.. the final nail in the coffin for me.. that makes this a no bet is How much does Martinez have left after a brutal fight with Paul Williams?
He's not a spring chicken.. and that was a hell of a fight. These are one of the few rare fights you can sit back and enjoy.. because it will be good (We waited long enough)!
Good luck to everyone betting either way you go this is a close call, even though I despise Pavlik's recent path of fighting sub par fighters.
I think he can get a decision here, possibly a late KO. My degree of confidence is not that high.. and personally I'm just looking to sit back relax and enjoy the fight.
I will watch more Martinez Tape to see if anything sticks out..but as of now.. sorry to say NO play for me either.
Good luck guys!
If Sergio was a pure 160 fighter I would play him, but he's really a 154 at most.. and Pavlik is really a 168 fighter fighting at 160, the two weight class difference to me is what will be the difference.
I do think this will be a very good fight for however long it lasts.. the final nail in the coffin for me.. that makes this a no bet is How much does Martinez have left after a brutal fight with Paul Williams?
He's not a spring chicken.. and that was a hell of a fight. These are one of the few rare fights you can sit back and enjoy.. because it will be good (We waited long enough)!
Good luck to everyone betting either way you go this is a close call, even though I despise Pavlik's recent path of fighting sub par fighters.
I think he can get a decision here, possibly a late KO. My degree of confidence is not that high.. and personally I'm just looking to sit back relax and enjoy the fight.
I will watch more Martinez Tape to see if anything sticks out..but as of now.. sorry to say NO play for me either.
Good luck guys!
Hot Forum Topics
