Parlay I like

Guys still travelling round the world so I won't be posting often..A few guys asked me to post a few picks so here goes. Right now, I am currently in North Carolina about to play a few rounds of golf. Was tempted earlier in the week to go to Montreal for tonight's fight but will watch it in one of the Carolina Ale Houses. Next stop Miami, then Vegas, California , Mexico and onwards to South America when the weather starts to get better.

Right down to business. A boxing parlay I like (and you will need to be patient) is as follows

1) Kell Brook to beat Michael Jennings @ -600 (18th of September)

2) Andre Ward to beat Andre Dirrell @ -350 (26th of September)

3) Toshiaki Nishioka to beat Rendell Munroe @ -330 (24th of October

Reasons. Kell Brook is one of my favourite fighters at the moment. He is fast, skillfull and has murderous power in both hands. I want Kell to be the real deal but think he is just a notch below world class. Still he will have way to much for Michael Jennings who is past his best. I expect a spectacular KO from Kell here..I will be playing a few fights that night in the UK. You will do well to find a better boxing card this year if like most of you here you love the sport of boxing..

Fight 2 is a bet I am going to invest massively in when the time comes. I know a lot of people will see value in Andre Dirrell. I see none! Dirrell is gifted no doubt and I expect him to give Ward problems early doors with his slick counter punching style.. He is also a switch hitter. With his talent Dirrell can give anyone problems. Ward however is something very special. That +1000 I got at the start of this is the best bet I ever made as he should win the lot. Ward is one of the most intelligent fighters in nthe game today. he can adapt mid fight and will eventually make you fight his kind of fight. Most importantly in this fight is Ward's mental toughness and Dirrells lack of it. When the going gets tough Dirrell will suffer. I will be playing HUGE on this fight..

Last but not least (and you will have to wait until October) is Toshiaki Nishioka v Rendall Munroe. I like Rendall, he is all heart and a serious likeable guy. He has also earned his title shot. For me Rendall is like Bernard Dunne ability wise. Just a notch below world class level. The only way Rendall would win a world title is for him to do it in front of his home crowd having an inspired night (ala Dunne). Now he has to go to Japan against a fighter who has improved at an incredible rate. I would travel to Japan/Thailand if a unification fight can be made against Poonsawat Kratingdaenggym as that would be fight of the year and maybe fight if the decade. The -330 on offer now is the best free money bet of the year. Rendall is completely out of his depth here and I am even more confident here then I am on the Ward bet.

Other leans I have coming up. I like Karo Murat +250 against Nathan Cleverly. I think the books have priced this up wrong. I have simply never been convinced by Cleverly and -350 for him is a crazy price in this spot. He has the home advantage and will probably win but this fight will be close so you will get great value for your money and Murat could easily pull the upset.

I will try get back before the 18th to post more picks on that huge Manchester card on Septe,ber 18th. Darren Barker v Matthew Macklin is must watch fight. A war is guarenteed.

On tonights fight I am going back and forth. When Carl Froch stopped going to war with Pascal he outboxed him..So if Froch can outbox him what the hell is Chad going to do! Pascal has massive heart though and I would be amazed to see him knocked out by Chad in ffront of his home fans. Having said that Chad needs to make a statement and make it soon. Another bore decision is going to kill his profile even more. People are not going to want to pay to see this style of fighting. A KO of Pascal in Canada would do Chad enormous benefit. Pascal's shoulder is also something to be very worried about. Still, I think Chad will revert to form/type here and look to outbox Pascal from the outside and engage as littkle as possible. Pascal looks extremely fired up for this one and I just can't see the KO. I might play small on Chad on points at about evens but the best bet I have seen is Damofo's +22.5 @ -250. Since Pascal will be coming forward all night he is going to win at least 3 rounds. Add to the fact he fought Diaconu with just one shoulder, fought a war with Froch, I just can't see how Chad KO's this guy in front of his home fans. I have been wrong before and will be again but I just can't see it. For me Mofo's bet is the way to go here. You covered by the upset, covered with the judging and realistically Jean Pascal should go the 12. My only concern is if Chad boxes his ears off and the corner pulls Pascal late. The -400 for the over 9.5 is too steep a price to play, but that should hit if you want to play big odds against. I won't be playing it. Not a fight to invest a huge amount in. Just too many variables for me..I havent played yet and I might not.

Good Luck with whatever you go with. Will be back in a month for the Super 6. I love Abraham against Froch by the way! Will be back fight time to explain why...Take care

I agree with your analysis on Cleverly. I've never been impressed with him and I like Murat's hard body punching. Murat however has T-Rex arms and is moving up to light-heavy to fight Clevely in Cleverly's home country. The fight should be compettitive however.

Ward should beat Dirrell but it's not a lock. Dirrell is longer and quicker with more power IMO, and I agreed with a comment he made where he said to fight Ward, "you have to get off first and not let him dictate." I completely agree and the first 1-8 rounds will be close until Dirrell tires. This fight will be close regardless.

I don't know enough about Nishioka and Munroe to comment on them.

Another great post by Mack. Glad to have him back.

champ comes from the woodwork https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=100801789

another winner..

haters hate..see you's soon..a drunken Mack..

Righty o. Will try get back posting in time for Super 6 Round 3..My leans are

1) Kessler to KO Allan Green. I can't see Green willing to take another beating like Ward dished out to him. Kessler will want to avoid Ward (and get a possible home semi) so getting the KO will guarentee that. Green needs a early KO to have any chance of advancing. No more out muscless Kessler in Denmark. I'm expecting fireworks here and playing on Kessler to win by KO..

2) Ward and Dirrell. I will go into closer to the fight but I love Ward here...

3) I have been back and forth here with this. The big problem I have is that there is every likely hood that both will be qualified by the time their fight comes. Very hard to go to war when mentally you know you don't have too. The winner of this will probably get Kessler. Lets assume they both go for it. Froch's best way of winning is to box on the outside, working the body of AA. Froch's boxing skills though are OVER RATED! And here lies his problem. AA was getting too Dirrell from round 9 onwards and Froch cant move and box like Dirrell. Eventually he is AA is going to catch up with him and Froch will be brought into a war. That will be a disaster for Froch. Froch's defense is very poor and if he takes murderous punches all night, eventually he is getting KTFO!

I would bet big on this result except for the fact that with both fighters qualified the war we are expecting might not come to pass here and we might see a boring technical fight. Either way, I think AA beats him, whether on points or KO and I will probably just play AA straight up.

The semi finals I see playing out are:

1) Andre Ward v Carl Froch (this is be a systematic beat down!!). Ward on points would be a strong play here..

2) Mikkel Kessler v Authur Abraham. (hmmm would have to think about that, homwtown man would be the way to go) ..

Talk soon...

Before I go on my hiatus posted this in the Tennis section. Don't think the boxing section has anywhere near the same amount of hardcore gamblers but hopefully it helps someone..

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=38&sub=100802979

Remember the magnicent 7 card in England on September 18th.

I will be back for Ward v Dirrell. Later

Here's a parlay I like

1. 8/20/2010 7:00 PM ATP Tennis 101 Rafael Nadal* -403 vs Marcos Baghdatis
2. 8/20/2010 8:15 PM ATP Doubles Tennis 158 B.Bryan/M.Bryan* -420 vs J.Knowle/A.Ram
3. 8/21/2010 10:30 PM Boxing Fighting 167 Adamek wins in round 7-9* +309 vs Any other result
4. 8/21/2010 5:00 PM Boxing Fighting 602 Marco Huck* -1300 vs Matt Godfrey
5. 8/28/2010 5:00 PM Boxing Fighting 602 Marcos Rene Maidana* -1700 vs DeMarcus Corley
6. 8/30/2010 12:00 PM Boxing Fighting 502 Viacheslav Senchenko* -2600 vs Charlie Jose Navarro
7. 9/4/2010 3:00 PM Boxing Fighting 522 Roman Martinez* -440 vs Ricky Burns
8. 9/4/2010 2:00 PM Boxing Fighting 602 Jan Zaveck* -300 vs Rafal Jackiewicz
9. 9/4/2010 4:00 PM Boxing Fighting 702 Felix Sturm* -420 vs Giovanni Lorenzo
10. 8/28/2010 11:00 PM UFC Fighting 1209 Couture wins inside distance* -437 vs Not Couture inside distance
11. 8/21/2010 10:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 1008 Bobby Lashley* -550 vs Chad Griggs
12. 8/21/2010 8:00 PM Strikeforce Fighting 1010 Daniel Cormier* -1350 vs Jason Riley

Risking $100.00 To Win $2,265.11

I've got a duplicate parlay but with Adamek in 4-6. Hey if I lose I only lost 2 bills and If I win, well at least I didn't have to wait until October.

Wish me luck I'll probably need it.

Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:

I'm not a fan of huge parlays anymore but the bet doesn't seem bad but one thing that stick out is #3  Adamek wins in round 7-9, while my hunch is about 7 rounds... it really leaves no room for error... I just would have taken Adamek ITD, and taken less of a payout but MUCH higher chance of winning.

Plus on wagers like this I bet like $10-15 tops.

Good luck I hope you win one of those bets!

                                

I guess I should have posted UNITS instead of cash.

I made  a duplicate parlay with Adamek in 4-6 and a 30 dollar parlay on Adamek in 10 exactly. Total of 230 bucks bet. I think Grant has too much BITCH in him to last more than 10. He can probably see Adameks right coming as opposed to McCline's or Guinn's left hook but with Grant I think its not just a chin problem but a heart problem. He doesn't want to take punishment. His last fight went only one round and before that he hadn't fought since 2008. Grant is now 38 - presumably with a wife and kids. To me that means he's gonna have even more quit in him.

The reason I din't put in Adamek by Ko is that its like -270. I like to have at least 1 game with + odds in my parlays. That way the odds really multiply fast.

BTW I fear for the safety of Ricky Burns. He's about to get KTFO!

F*#K! Somebody told me he was a "sure bet". 230 bucks down the drain ain't too bad though. I got a 2 bills parlay on Gesta under and the B Ryan/R Bryan tennis double. Pays out slightly more than even.

Also I went ahead and put down some similar parlays to the long first without the tennis bets combined with Gesta under.

rzagza I lost 5k yesterday betting on Murray. For that reason I will never play tennis again thats not a major. It was bizarre. Murray wins a tight first set (you could see Fish's heart was gone) and then proceeds to play like a mule for the rest of the way!. What's bizarre is he looked exhausted second set and then is chasing everything around in the 3rd set!

As usual after a loss I sit back and wait for awhile. Lesson learned..I do have 1250 on the Adamek KO but thats me done betting for awhile as I don't need to, or particulary want to.

Back to boxing Froch v Abraham is very quickly becoming a NO play. Its so disappointing to know this fight is basically a dead rubber. It's almost certain both these fighters know that they are through to the semi's by the time they fight. If thats the case you can't bet on the fight.

If by any chance the loser goes out, I will be playing HUGE on Abraham. The consensus around the boxing world is that 2 things will happen here. Froch builds up a lead early and wins on points or AA ko. I don't care if it is on Monaco, I think Froch will find it VERY hard to get the nod on the cards. I think he would need to be a decisive victor and thats not happening. This all goes out the window if both guys are already through. If thats the case this fight will be a dud. If everything was on the line here you can rule both of these guys out from making the final. They would have a war that shortens careers. If they are both through, expect a snoozefest.......

Quote Originally Posted by nuttyrich:

Mack I disagree, I think BOTH men have something to prove.

Both are coming off their first loss EVER. That's not a good feeling.

If this were Football, Baseball or almost any other sport I would agree when two people have advanced really nothing to play for (sit the stars) or play a 1/2 or something.. but BOXING is the exception.

I haven't really analyzed the fight yet but I know neither guy is going to be taking it easy on each other last thing either guy needs is a stinker fight in highly touted tournament.

Now say one guy is in the lead and cruising.. to an easy victory.. I can maybe see them pulling a Floyd where they don't take a risk and just win easy.

Just Abraham and Froch don't seem like two guys who have that ability to turn off that inner beast.

Sorry you lost on the Tennis, I stopped betting that also a while ago when I seen certain players "retire" even while in the lead. This wasn't with 5dimes it was with other books.. and some 2 sets must be complete to be a final or it's no action., some have 1 set.

Good luck with Adamek tonight I like the fight NOT to go the distance, odds are Adamek will  stop Grant but never know if Grant can land one bomb early  so I'd rather have the bases covered and try to parlay the -330  with another team.. maybe a wnba money line, not sure yet if I'm pulling the trigger.

The way I see it if Grant takes Adamek the distance, I see his stock go way down, he's fighting a guy who never had talent heart or a chin... just size.

Good luck,
  

I agree with everything you said Nutty except for the last part. Grant doesn't have a chin or much of a heart but there is definitly some talent there. His right hand has serious power (multiplied by the downward trajectory of fighting a much shorter opponent) and he's shown a good jab. If you look at all the trainers who have worked with Grant in the past (now working with Eddie Mustafa Muhammed), you won't find any bums.

Having said that I like Adamek to finish him in 7-9 rounds. Grant simply refues to go into the trenches.