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My Largest Play In A While

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Posted: #1
Juan Manual Marquez
Bodog +275
 
No need to write up, simply a clash of two great fighters.  Have a gut feeling he wins.  There are no technical reasons, both are solid, and I'm not buying the size bullshit.  Go get him Juan........
 
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Posted: #2
That is a horrible price.  Everywhere else has +340.  I would tell Bodog to get lost.
 
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Posted: #3
+350 at 5dimes.  They will have +375 probably the day of

I bet you could fish +400 on matchbook.
Bagel Sandwiches Suck
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by LarryParker:

Juan Manual Marquez
Bodog +275
 
No need to write up, simply a clash of two great fighters.  Have a gut feeling he wins.  There are no technical reasons, both are solid, and I'm not buying the size bullshit.  Go get him Juan........


As the others have stated, you could get MUCH better odds.

Marquez in my eyes doesn't have a prayer, not because he isn't great but because of the move UP in weight class.

He was rocked pretty bad quite a few times against a VERY light hitting Juan Diaz at 135 he was pushed around the ring pretty easy for many rounds.

That was his FIRST fight at 135, he pulled it out in the end, but right after I stated he should go back down. Some cannot carry the weight up to higher classes.

No matter what odds you get it won't change a thing, this is where Vegas finally has the LINE RIGHT (in anything too LOW on Floyd).

Remember I'm taking nothing away from Marquez, but he is best at 130 and no higher.

Good luck and please get better odds!
 
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Posted: #5
Wow, looks like I need to start shopping around.  Thanks. 
 
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Posted: #6
Ok, so I locked in +320 with a local.  Not waiting for price shifts, or concearned with the weigh in.  I'm locked in, and come September 20th, Marquez will have the whole entire world drinking their own piss. 
 
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Posted: #7
Why would you lock that in with a local or on Bodog at those prices???   where is your money management?  u could easily find better odds almost anywhere, pinnacle has JMM at +350........  
 
if you are telling the truth about it being your largest play in a while, you really are not being smart about it.  
 
GET THE MOST BANG FOR YOUR BUCK!!!
 
 
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Posted: #8
Thanks for the adice, but I'm content with the odds I bought.  Just need the horse to come through. 
 
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Posted: #9
Not to beat a dead horse LP, but 5 Dimes is the place to be for boxing.  You can parlay anything (totals with sides) and their lines are the shit.   Try 'em out.  You'll love it.  
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by LarryParker:

Juan Manual Marquez
Bodog +275
 
No need to write up, simply a clash of two great fighters.  Have a gut feeling he wins.  There are no technical reasons, both are solid, and I'm not buying the size bullshit.  Go get him Juan........

 

I hope your right but that size difference when their nose to nose is alarming.   Mayweather was structurally bigger than Hatton, a true strong  jr welter.   Giving up 10-15 pounds , height, reach,  ughh to an an elite fighter.  Shock me Juan....  

 
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Posted: #11
[Quote: Originally Posted by punchmaster]

 

I hope your right but that size difference when their nose to nose is alarming.   Mayweather was structurally bigger than Hatton, a true strong  jr welter.   Giving up 10-15 pounds , height, reach,  ughh to an an elite fighter.  Shock me Juan....  



There will not be that much of a weight difference on fight night. That you can go to the bank on.
 
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Posted: #12
nutty rich said,


                 Marquez in my eyes doesn't have a prayer, not because he isn't great but because of the move UP in weight class.


What is your evidence for this statement? How do you know he can't handle the move up in weight? Not trying to start an argument but a friendly debate. Just curious.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

nutty rich said,


                 Marquez in my eyes doesn't have a prayer, not because he isn't great but because of the move UP in weight class.


What is your evidence for this statement? How do you know he can't handle the move up in weight? Not trying to start an argument but a friendly debate. Just curious.

Rich is right, if you glance at this fight he really doesn't have a chance. BUT...you must really look very very close to find the way Marquez will pull this off.  Here's a hint:  The keys can be found in Mayweather's fights with Jesus Chavez and DeMarcus Corley.   

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by A2C:

Not to beat a dead horse LP, but 5 Dimes is the place to be for boxing.  You can parlay anything (totals with sides) and their lines are the shit.   Try 'em out.  You'll love it.  

Yes, I have accounts with Blowdog and Arrowaction, but of which offer lines that really are da shit, or just plain shit at times.  I'll look into changing, Thanks for the advice. 

 
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Posted: #15
[Quote: Originally Posted by LarryParker]

Rich is right, if you glance at this fight he really doesn't have a chance.


I guess we'll find out how much of a chance he has on Saturday. You might be very surprised at the outcome.




 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

nutty rich said,


                 Marquez in my eyes doesn't have a prayer, not because he isn't great but because of the move UP in weight class.


What is your evidence for this statement? How do you know he can't handle the move up in weight? Not trying to start an argument but a friendly debate. Just curious.



Easy when he moved up to 135 he was less than impressive. That was only a 5 pound move up. He fought a slick but very past his prime Casamayor and needed a KO to win, and against Diaz the weight was even more apparent.

I believe this is because Casamayor fought the prime of his career at 130 so he wasn't truly a 135 fighter. Juan Diaz a TRUE 135 fighter wobbled and buckled him many times.

We all know Juan Diaz doesn't punch hard, Paulie schooled him, so speaks for "strength".

If you watch the fight Juan Diaz wasn't just winning he was MOVING Marquez, yes a weak 135 fighter was doing this.

I do agree BOTH fighters will come in about the same weight, only Floyd will be at his NATURAL weight.

I believe BOTH fighters are great, in their OWN divisions, my pick is based solely on the speed and defense of Floyd and the weight class, also helps that  Marquez has been on the canvas many times.

Styles make fights, and Floyd will NOT let Marquez fight his warrior style. Marquez is best when he can exploit a find a weakness, take Chris John, a pure technical boxer who beat Marquez, doesn't have any flaws, not the most exciting fighter, but he is good in all areas.

Now add 3 weight classes and fighting what *I* (personal belief) believe is the best fighter since Tyson (A prime Tyson).

I wish everyone the best  whoever they pick. I advise everyone to go with who they like in the fight and don't let anyone here persuade you either way in the end it's YOUR MONEY.



Good luck,
    Rich


 
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Posted: #17
nutty rich said,

                He fought a slick but very past his prime Casamayor and needed a KO to win, and against Diaz the weight was even more apparent.


I'm sure your not going to build your case around the fact that he KO'd Casamayor?

As far as the Diaz fight goes, You said yourself that "STYLES MAKE FIGHTS" Diaz came out Super-Aggressive, catching a slow starting Marquez a little off guard. Once he weathered the storm he went on to KO Diaz. Mayweather does Not figure to come out trying to knock Marquez's head off, if his history is to repeat itself. So again..... I can't buy that argument.

Many experts agree with you that Floyd is the much bigger man & Marquez will have a hard time at this weight. My take though is that Floyd is a guy that also had moved up in weight, not that long ago. I know Floyd fought Oscar at 154 but It's not like he's a legitimate super welterweight who has had to cut weight & walks around at 170 normally. A fighter like that would have a 10 to 15 lb weight advantage on fight night. That would be hard for a lighter boxer to overcome. This is just not the case here.

nutty rich also said

                 Styles make fights, and Floyd will NOT let Marquez fight his warrior style. Marquez is best when he can exploit a find a weakness, take Chris John, a pure technical boxer who beat Marquez, doesn't have any flaws, not the most exciting fighter, but he is good in all areas.


I don't think it's a question of Warrior style for Marquez. I just think he needs to win the exchanges. Now you might say " How can he win exchanges when Floyd has the faster hands"?

1.Timing

2. He throws more combination punches in exchanges then Floyd does. Remember the crowd will be 80% Marquez & might effect the judges scoring. I really can see Marquez getting stronger as the bout progresses, Because I think he has the greater ability to adjust to whatever Floyd throws at him.

Now .... here's what I am worried about as a Over- Marquez bettor.
It's Floyd's sneaky left uppercut. That's the one punch I have seen Marquez be very vulnerable to. And Floyd's is a beauty I have to admit. But I'm confident Marquez has been warned in training to watch out for it. The right hand doesn't worry me half as much.

It's fun debating this topic & I mean no disrespect in challenging your analysis. You could turn out to be completely right & I could wind up eating crow. But I still think laying 4.5-1 against a fighter as skilled as Marquez is NUTS. Win-Lose or Draw. Thanks & BOL on all your other bets.Sorry...Just keeping it real.



 
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Posted: #18
I'm with you on Marquez. It's time for the little punk to lose one. 
 
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Posted: #19
Hey red I find this fun also, because we both have valid statements.

My bet would be Floyd inside the distance, +173 (That is a ko/tko/dq + if Marquez gets cut and it goes to the score cards) basically 11 rounds + 2:59. So  anything but the FINAL Bell.

There is also a nice prop which lowers the line -340 (Floyd wins, NO DRAW) draw would be a LOSS, but any other method is a win.

I'm deciding if I should add Value to the bet with Chris John and a few HIGH moneyline games for college football.

I don't want to get greedy, I should probably just take Floyd ITD at +173 instead of racking my brain. Like most people I will kick myself if Chris John wins easily.. and I don't add him.

Let it be known, I've disliked Floyd for many years, I'm NOT a FAN of his, but I've learned to accept who he is as a fighter, he is not a warrior and doesn't attract fans by his amazing fights, he has to play the "bad guy" so people hate him and WANT to see him lose.

I myself were one of those people, reminds me of Mike Tyson and Lennox Lewis where Mike Tyson said he was going to eat Lennox Lewis KIDS and all this savage stuff, know what it did? IT SOLD.

After the fight Mike Tyson said you know that was all bullshit to sell the fight I needed the Money badly and thank you for helping me Lennox you know you are a good friend.

Tyson sold on skill and fear at first, once skill went away he went into savage tactics which still got him pay days.

Floyd was loved by many, until he became bigger draw and made comments "Working for slave money" while making millions.

Then when it came time for PPV fights he became a bad ass and everyone hated him, why? It Sells!

Check out how Much Oscar and Floyd made for their fighter after PPV.
 
Directly from boxrec.com
After PPV percentages were included, De La Hoya made $52 million and Mayweather $25 million. (The biggest payday in boxing history for two fighters in one bout.)
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Redlad:

nutty rich said,

                He fought a slick but very past his prime Casamayor and needed a KO to win, and against Diaz the weight was even more apparent.


I'm sure your not going to build your case around the fact that he KO'd Casamayor?

As far as the Diaz fight goes, You said yourself that "STYLES MAKE FIGHTS" Diaz came out Super-Aggressive, catching a slow starting Marquez a little off guard. Once he weathered the storm he went on to KO Diaz. Mayweather does Not figure to come out trying to knock Marquez's head off, if his history is to repeat itself. So again..... I can't buy that argument.

Many experts agree with you that Floyd is the much bigger man & Marquez will have a hard time at this weight. My take though is that Floyd is a guy that also had moved up in weight, not that long ago. I know Floyd fought Oscar at 154 but It's not like he's a legitimate super welterweight who has had to cut weight & walks around at 170 normally. A fighter like that would have a 10 to 15 lb weight advantage on fight night. That would be hard for a lighter boxer to overcome. This is just not the case here.

nutty rich also said

                 Styles make fights, and Floyd will NOT let Marquez fight his warrior style. Marquez is best when he can exploit a find a weakness, take Chris John, a pure technical boxer who beat Marquez, doesn't have any flaws, not the most exciting fighter, but he is good in all areas.


I don't think it's a question of Warrior style for Marquez. I just think he needs to win the exchanges. Now you might say " How can he win exchanges when Floyd has the faster hands"?

1.Timing

2. He throws more combination punches in exchanges then Floyd does. Remember the crowd will be 80% Marquez & might effect the judges scoring. I really can see Marquez getting stronger as the bout progresses, Because I think he has the greater ability to adjust to whatever Floyd throws at him.

Now .... here's what I am worried about as a Over- Marquez bettor.
It's Floyd's sneaky left uppercut. That's the one punch I have seen Marquez be very vulnerable to. And Floyd's is a beauty I have to admit. But I'm confident Marquez has been warned in training to watch out for it. The right hand doesn't worry me half as much.

It's fun debating this topic & I mean no disrespect in challenging your analysis. You could turn out to be completely right & I could wind up eating crow. But I still think laying 4.5-1 against a fighter as skilled as Marquez is NUTS. Win-Lose or Draw. Thanks & BOL on all your other bets.Sorry...Just keeping it real.





I don't think you will be eating crow, you make valid statements, both of ours are "Should" statements. Yet when the bell rings only the two fighters know what will happen.

I personally don't see how Floyd CAN lose this, I may be eating crow by taking him ITD with a 2 year layoff, but me taking him ITD would me even if he wins a decision I lose, my statement on -400 is still valid, so many ways for Floyd to WIN , TKO,KO, Decision-

 That WARRANTS -400 (in MY opinion). There is a reason I'm getting +173 if I take that bet, same as yours they are dogs hence the +173.

The guys with the big $$ could step in on this, laying the -400, for me I have to do props or parlay as I try to NOT gamble my life away. 

I want to be able to enjoy the fight w/o worrying if I'm breaking the bank.

 
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Posted: #21
OKay I found a prop I really like -115 laying -15.5 pts with Floyd, this is like hedging out a bet, if he wins by KO/TKO it's a WIN... if it goes to the scorecards and he wins by 16 pts basically 116-112 on  the 3 cards, is certainly possible.  If the fight is closer than it should be .. than I deserve to lose.

Now I also want to parlay Chris John into this... Chris John by WIN ONLY (no draw) is -280.

I love the Floyd PROP even w/o a KO you can still win.

Still deciding who I want to add!

The prop is from 5dimes.
 
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Posted: #22
Sorry made a math error there .. not 116-112 that would only be 12 pts and a loss, needs on the average 5 to 6 points on the cards.

I'm Adding Chris John not sure how(to win only, no draw or draw included) I'm parlaying  it  with Floyd  ITD or by pts and such will figure that out tonight.

Good luck Fellas!
 
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Posted: #23
Hmmm.. All these attractive props on Floyd what's the public to do??? I know, run the other way! 

The only way I can see Marquez losing this fight is if he gets a bad cut and it goes to the cards early or the judges rob him later on. It will take him a few rounds to settle in but once that happens you will see Floyd exploited and perhaps Ko'd. 

Don't kid yourself people Floyd is here for the paycheck and will fold if pressed.
 
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Posted: #24
So Pretty Boy, you actually came in at 146 lbs., a full 2 lbs. OVER the contractual weight limit of 144?.  hmm, what's the matter Mr. Floyd, afraid of a little weight drain I suppose?  Looking for a little edge against Mr. Dinamita?  Isn't your lightning hand speed and your "virtuosity" as one sports writer put it enough to stand in with JM Superstar?  Well I tell you what, not only do I hope they tax your bum little ass millions for this little stunt, I now hope you get K'd TFO!.   
 
 
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Posted: #25
Wow docked $600,000 for being two pounds over the weight. This worries me as how hard was it for Floyd to make 146?

Health wise it was smarter for him to be docked 600K than dehydrate himself and look like Oscar De La Hoya  did.

Glad I didn't pull the trigger yet, I'm sure the price will go down now and increase the prop odds.

For those who are on Marquez, look at the prop odds, if it's juicy for Floyd, it's even JUICER for Marquez.

Let's not bash either fighter, it does NO ONE any good, let's share information that pertains to the fight.


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