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Martinez is a LOCK

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Posted: #1
I'm going to just say that. Chavez Jr is going to get dominated. Why? It's very, very simple...

Chavez Jr. uses his size and will to break down significantly smaller men with pressure. He isn't going to be able to walk forward and "break down" Martinez like he has his recent opponents. Martinez's lateral movement and ring awareness won't let that happen. In short, Chavez Jr isn't going to be able to land anything significant often enough to win him rounds or the fight.

Martinez is eventually going to be remembered as one of the better Jr Middle/Middleweight fighters of all-time. He's a complete fighter that wants to be the best and takes the steps necessary to become exactly that. 

As far as the outcome, I'm not totally sure. However, what I heard last night in an interview with Martinez on FNF was interesting...


In a part of this interview, he says "It doesn't matter if Chavez wants to win the first, second and third rounds. I won't allow it, but it's not important. Like Roberto Duran would say, "talk to me after the 8th round." 

More importantly was this statement on the key to the fight: "I can't get away from my fight plan and give him any chances. That's it. It's very simple."

We've already seen this fight before, probably against a superior fighter. When Martinez won the title from Pavlik he used patience staying on the outside and throwing well timed pot shots to disrupt Pavlik's timing when coming in and scoring easy points. We'll see that strategy duplicated tomorrow night. A wide UD or a punishing mid-late fight KO are the only two possible outcomes tomorrow. 

Basically risking my boxing bankroll for the year and my reputation on this fight.  

Martinez -210, 21 units to win 10.
Martinez -7.5 points, -115, 11.5 units to win 10.
Martinez wins by KO or unanimous decision, -112, 11.2 to 10.
Martinez wins in rounds 6-12, +429, 4.66 units to win 20.
 
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Posted: #2

does this mean youre going to stop posting here if you lose?

 if so, that sucks.

im taking the position of soulpurpose and will simply be a fan with an action play. probably SM KO and jr +190.

 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

does this mean youre going to stop posting here if you lose?

 if so, that sucks.

im taking the position of soulpurpose and will simply be a fan with an action play. probably SM KO and jr +190.


Of course not, I always provide you with fade material! In all seriousness, if anyone has ever considered making a wager based on my opinion or insight, tomorrow would be that time. As far as wagering value goes, I can't think of many other fights offering this good of an opportunity to essentially steal money.
 
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Posted: #4
Also..

Chavez isn't skilled enough to beat him in a technical fight for 12 rounds. He isn't strong enough to simply walk through Martinez and bully him and "break him down." He isn't experienced enough to dictate the terms of this fight, i.e. the distance, pace and vigor in which this fight will be fought. 

Look, let's be honest here. Chavez has improved leaps in bounds since being guided to his title fight with Zbik. However, that doesn't change the fact you can make a case he lost that fight. Doesn't change the fact he went he distance with Billy "Cliche Midwest Tomato Can" Lyell 5 months before that, a mere 19 months ago. Doesn't change the fact that two of his title defenses were against a completely shot fighters Manfredo and Rubio who were served up as "name value" to the public. Doesn't change the fact that he was behind on the cards against Lee when he stopped him. 

Also, let's look at the intangibles. 1. His weight issues. No explanation necessary. 2. His DUI, partying and general lack of interest in training like an elite champion. 
3. His lack of experience against elite fighters on this stage.

You could nitpick about Martinez, as it is probably warranted. Doesn't change the fact that other than a prime/loaded/experienced Margarito and a highly disputable loss to Paul Williams, he has never lost a fight. Doesn't change the fact that if you throw out a 4 rounder and he's 11-1 with 10 KO's over the last 5 years. (including Cintron of course) 

Also, what about Chavez's bad wheel? He said that his legs were cramping against Lee, saying so from his corner in the fight. He also went on to say the only reason he started taunting Lee is so that he would come forward and he wouldn't have to chase him on a bad leg. This factor isn't getting much talk, but he was seen training/running on 24/7 with brace openly visible on that leg. Could you IMAGINE how ugly this would get if Chavez is further limited in his mobility? 

I love looking at things subjectively, as that is the hidden beauty debating this sport. However, I refuse to believe or even entertain the thought of Chavez Jr winning this fight. Can't happen, won't happen, better not happen... because if it does??? I'm homeless!  
 
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Posted: #5

if i remember correctly, mack won a house on the chavez/lee fight. perhaps he can spot you a coupleof  months if this doesnt go your way.

after six rounds if this fight is even you are going to be in a bad spot. chavez should finish stronger and then you will already have one judge against you(adelaide byrd). to make matters worse, SM has been overtly pernicious in his opinion of sulaiman and the wbc, something that probably wont fare well for him if this were to go to the cards.

SM threw a total of 686 against a fresh-out-of rehab KP(come forward style with more power than jr.), a fight he was losing up until the cut in the ninth round. the majority of his success and activity(9-12) was after KP was hindered by the blood impairing his vision.

chavez threw 796 against zbik(same fast hands and movement as SM but with less power) so it is hard to make a concrete case that SM will out-throw JR.

if SM cannot outhrow and outwork jr. i think its safe to say that youre going to need a KO or a knockdown(s) to win here.

thats a lot to ask for a LOCK play.

im leaning +170 under 11.5,  jr decision+371 and SM ko/tko +300.

 

 

 
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Posted: #6
If you're hinting that Chavez Jr can pull this off with the appearance of being busy and letting his hands go for crowd pops, you  might be correct. I'm sure he'll land a lot of nothing if he gets Martinez on the ropes, yet he'll get credit for a ton of something.  I would typically be very worried about that, but I'm not. The way in which Martinez is going to outclass Chavez is going to be so wide they can't fuck him. 

Also, the commonly stated opinion that CHAVEZ is going to be the one finishing strong is absurd as far as I'm concerned. You're asking the guy that will be packing on a reported 25-30 extra pounds (about 5-10 more than he has in re-hydrating in recent fights) to come on stronger against a guy that will be making him move from the word go? 

This is all presuming he isn't taking the majority of the damage early in the fight. Not to mention that he JUST had severe cramping issues against Lee as I stated above. That's not a rumor, he said it very clearly in his corner during the fight and on 24/7 too. Can we finally debunk that ridiculous talking point? 

If what I've already stated above isn't enough, how about Martinez knocking out his past two opponents deep into the fight? They weren't accumulation knockouts either. They were from fresh, hard punches. Lastly, can anyone question which fighter is the superior cardio guy here? 

Lastly, KP wasn't winning shit. Technically he was up on the cards, but that was somewhat skewed too do to the off balance knockdown he scored in the 7th round of that fight. That 10-8 Pavlik round would have been another 10-9 Martinez round, thus he wouldn't have even been remotely close.

The cut is a a nice thing to point the finger at, but it was Martinez's left hand drilling his ass that changed the fight. Martinez won almost every second of that fight from the 6th round on, other than dropping a round due to inactivity in the 8th. 

Good enough? 

 
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Posted: #7
nice writeup.Do you  think the line will move anymore?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Action_Junkee:

nice writeup.Do you  think the line will move anymore?

Yes. In Vegas it is moving downward closer to a pick'em with a huge showing of Mexican money much like the Brits dropped the Hatton line against Pacquiao.
 
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Posted: #9
walktheline,

I have a big wager in NCAAFB in the morning...

I'll probably slap half of that profit on to your play here.

If she all works out, preferably a KO in rounds 6-12...I'll smoke a nice blunt in your honor

Question though -- if the fight does end in rounds 6-12 with a KO, does the wager of Martinez -7.5 points win?

Best of luck and much appreciation for your posts

 
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Posted: #10
Yes, it does. Any KO is a winner with the points handicap. Good luck!
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:

Yes, it does. Any KO is a winner with the points handicap. Good luck!


Hopefully my college handicapping skills are sharp so I can roll the profit forward on to this fight

 
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Posted: #12
Uh oh.....

Can we agree on Jhonny Gonzalez?
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by DannoDanger:

Uh oh.....

Can we agree on Jhonny Gonzalez?

Yes. Emphatically. By KO too?
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:


Yes. In Vegas it is moving downward closer to a pick'em with a huge showing of Mexican money much like the Brits dropped the Hatton line against Pacquiao.

i played it at matchbook with a jr. win at +190 and then hedged it with sergio win -120 at my mexican book. im now going to play the props of SM +300 KO and jr. decision+ 371 with some of the profits.

chavez "should finish stronger" but as i stated on another thread this is SM's signature fight and i dont think conditioning will be a factor. what i am thinking is the accumulation of jr's body shots(jr at this stage is arguably one of the best body punchers in the sport) will be what allows chavez to finish stronger(this admittedly happened with zbik and chavez is a better fighter now).

my main concern here is the judging and the bias that i believe will go against SM if this fight goes to the cards. the disparity in skillset could very well transpire fight night but i have a lessor opinion of sergio than you and i think that julio is much, much better than dzinzurik(154), barker or macklin.

those three guys wouldve been gatekeepers in the 90's.

 

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

i played it at matchbook with a jr. win at +190 and then hedged it with sergio win -120 at my mexican book. im now going to play the props of SM +300 KO and jr. decision+ 371 with some of the profits.

chavez "should finish stronger" but as i stated on another thread this is SM's signature fight and i dont think conditioning will be a factor. what i am thinking is the accumulation of jr's body shots(jr at this stage is arguably one of the best body punchers in the sport) will be what allows chavez to finish stronger(this admittedly happened with zbik and chavez is a better fighter now).

my main concern here is the judging and the bias that i believe will go against SM if this fight goes to the cards. the disparity in skillset could very well transpire fight night but i have a lessor opinion of sergio than you and i think that julio is much, much better than dzinzurik(154), barker or macklin.

those three guys wouldve been gatekeepers in the 90's.

 


Good job buddy. A scalp here is ideal if you have the angle. 
 
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Posted: #16
Undercard plays:

Alcine/Macklin over 8.5, -140, 7 units to win 5.
Ponce De Leon/Gonzalez under 9.5, even, 5 units to win 5.

Parlay: Alvarez ITD, -230, Hernandez -400, Maidana -310, Gonzalez -220, 4.08 units to win 10.


 
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Posted: #17
I have a parlay similar to that.  I'm very confident in Macklin tonight, so he's definitely in there for me.  I think Alvarez ITD is almost definite too.
 
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Posted: #18

This fight has "ridiculous/fixed decision" written all over it.  Boxing has made goodmoney off of Martinez and now they will feel it may be time to move on to a legendary name and make a new revenue generating stream. 

As another poster stated...

im leaning +170 under 11.5,  jr decision+371 and SM ko/tko +300.

PERFECT way to play this fight. 

Even if Sergio wins 8-4, I can still see Jr. getting a BS split decision.  The other outcome is Sergio stops himin rounds 9, 10 or 11.   

 
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Posted: #19
Good play and good luck...
 
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Posted: #20
jesus GL
 
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Posted: #21
Martinez should beat him cause JCC is no paul williams lol
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by walktheline:


Yes. Emphatically. By KO too?
 what?  ponce de leon will lose by ko to gonzalez?   no chance in this, daniel will win this one,  I thought he beat broner (but it was very close) and he was holding his own with gamboa (although losing most every round) but gamboa is a full level above gonzalez, and one of the worlds best,  to me daniel is one of the most underrated guys in the sport, he has improved tons since his loss to lopez.   DANIEL PONCE DE LEON wins this one, 
 
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Posted: #23

that mexican book i use had jr as the favorite at -130 and in the last half hour sm went from -110 to -150.

never seen anything like this before at this book with a line going against a mexican fighter. im assuming this is the heavy money coming in hard for SM.

youre looking good, buddy.

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

that mexican book i use had jr as the favorite at -130 and in the last half hour sm went from -110 to -150.

never seen anything like this before at this book with a line going against a mexican fighter. im assuming this is the heavy money coming in hard for SM.

youre looking good, buddy.


That's very, VERY interesting. That had to be decent steam to move the line against Jr considering their probable handle and the ratio of bets on him. Thanks for the info. 
 
 
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Posted: #25
Adding: Alvarez/Lopez under 8.5 rounds, +105, 10 units.
Martinez via KO or UD, -137, 20.55 units.

Sink or swim, go big or go home....
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