Being one of very few David Haye fans, I let out a sad groan when David Haye pulled out of his scheduled June 20 IBF and WBO heavyweight title bid against Wladimir Klitschko with a back problem the other week.
It was Haye's big chance to realise his boyhood dream and thousands of fans, me included, were set to invade Germany and cheer on 'The Hayemaker' as he bid to become a world superstar.
Haye's loss though is Ruslan Chagaev's gain however with the unbeaten Uzbek now taking on Klitschko at the Veltis Arena in Gelsenkirchen.
As replacements go Chagaev was just about the best out there. The 30-year-old was a two-time world amateur champion (who beat legendary Cuban Felix Savon in the vest) and as a pro he has racked up 25 straight wins.
He is also WBA world champion and has made two defences of that crown since winning it in 2007.
Chagaev has come in at late notice but should still be ready to roll after his own fight against Nikolay Valuev was pulled on medical grounds just a few weeks ago.
Chagaev is technically very correct as you might expect from such a seasoned amateur and he also looks to have a decent chin at this level.
He's been in with big men such as Valuev, Vladimir Virches, and John Ruiz and none of those men could make an impression on his whiskers.
And having not lost as a pro (he turned over in 1997) he should be full of ambition and see this as his big chance to make a name for himself.
A big crowd is expected in Germany and if he can do the business against Klitschko then his profile would go through the roof.
It's a big 'if' though.
Klitschko has lost just three times in 55 outings and is unbeaten since Lamon Brewster shocked him in 2004. He's on a 10-fight winning streak since then and will enjoy the bulk of support in Germany, the land he now calls home.
Last time out in December he did a number on Hasim Rahman, and six of his last seven wins have come inside the distance.
However this is Klitschko's first 'live' test since he faced Sultan Ibragimov in February of 2008.
He was ultra cautious that night and although he punched out a unanimous decision win it was a display that had the fans at Madison Square Garden shaking their heads in disbelief.
Quite why a fighter with such physical attributes (6'7 and 245lbs) and with a KO ratio above 80% would adopt such a safety-first attitude is questionable to say the least, but Klitschko does tend to err on the side of caution all too often and I reckon he may revert to type this weekend.
Chagaev is a southpaw with a fine left hook not unlike Corrie Sanders, who destroyed Klitschko in two rounds back in 2003.
I don't think Chagaev hits quite as hard as Sanders did but the left hand is his money shot and it's a shot Klitschko has had trouble with in the past.
I fancy the fight to be something of a chess match with Klitschko trying to dominate from ring center with that fine jab of his and Chagaev, who was once known as the 'White Tyson', looking to get inside and wreak havoc with the left hand.
I don't see the fight being anywhere near as exciting as Haye v Klitschko might have been though and can't see anything other than over 9.5 rounds here..
Klitschko has come apart under pressure in the past but I think he will be respectful of Chagaev's power and ability and look to win the fight with his jab. He's more than capable of doing this and so the bookies quote of -130 quote about the over 9.5 rounds looks the percentage call. I would urge aneone who follows my picks NOT to invest to heavily in this fight as there is better value out there and there are too many unknowns in this fight to bet with any clear amount of certainty..
Cheers 
Hot Forum Topics
