Forrest-Baldomir Prediction Thread

"Yes", it's the Total on 11.5 Rounds perricm. HTH's.

GLA!
bigeiii

For those wagering in person in LV, so far we have the following:

Forrest -135; Baldomir ? @ Station casinos [thanks to NJDevils

Forrest -130; Baldomir -110 @ Wynn [thanks to electricApe]

Forrest -140; Baldomir +110 @ Caesar's Palace

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You sure about that? He was never a dog in this fight.

Whoa, you may want to know what you are talking about before stating falsities.

Yeah I'm sure about it as most other 5dimes boxing bettors could tell you.  After starting out at over 2-1 Forrest then moved to +160 for about a 12-24 hour period, but of course he continued to get bet as the dog and now the odds are where they are today.

If so you should have bet the max repeatedly as they shifted the line and parlayed it as many times as possible, but did you? And I still doubt any oddsmaker could install Forrest as a dog in this fight, much less +250.

Go away.  Stop arguing things u know nothing about.  It's well documented that 5dimes opened with Forrest +220.  And they have limits on their boxing future wagers, so you couldn't continually hit it beyond that max.  Now, they only allow people to throw $100 on their futures, and I think that's partly due to people hitting Forrest +220 and then Forrest +160 very hard.  Go to the boxrec.com forums to see further evidence that Forrest was initially a dog on 5dimes.

But those initial odds bring up an important issue.  Is it worth betting on Forrest at the current odds (which stupid Bodog has listed as -200 because the public is all over Forrest)?  I think that this is a dangerous fight to bet on due to the uncertainty surrounding Forrest's shoulder.  He didn't look very good against Quartey, and he hasn't fought in a year since that match.  Laying -200 is not a good move considering these questions.  I'm actually gonna wait to see what I can get on a Baldomir KO-TKO-DQ prop, as I could see Forrest being forced to retire at some point due to an injury.  Baldomir will definitely be testing Forrest with lots of blows, and no one really knows how he's gonna take it.

Your unbelievable.  Why would I want to get as much as I can on Forrest by betting the max and parlaying it as many times as possible if I only wanted to put 1 unit on him ($100 for me).  The max was $250, but like you said when the odds changed you could have bet it again.  It's not like when you find a fighter at juicy odds you go and lay the kitchen sink on him because he is at great odds, there is still the element of winning the fight.

If you don't believe me, that's fine, what would I have to gain by lying though?

There are some huge shifts on 5dimes odds a lot of times from the opening number because they open up futures before anyone else on the net and don't use Joey Odessa's lines like a lot of sites.  The David Diaz-Erik Morales line is a recent example, Diaz opened at +160, but was soon bet to be the favorite.  I bet Taylor when he fought Spinks on their opening number of -350 and before long what do you know he was at -900.

I didn't bet it myself, but I even read yesterday that the opening number that they hung on Taylor-Pavlik yesterday morning was Taylor -400 and Pavlik +280.  Needless to say that didn't last long even with a $100 max bet.  So some lucky souls are sitting on Pavlik at those generous + odds.

Needless to say you don't seem like the smartest individual and I probably shouldn't even have wasted my time with the lengthy response, but you really shouldn't throw around claims when you have no idea what your talking about.

First of all to perineum, I'm not going anywhere. I can say what I want, you can ignore it, and that's that. Or you can respond with stuff like "you couldn't continually hit it beyond the max" even though I said "bet the max repeatedly as they shifted the line."

To the other guy, have you ever heard of a trade? If you had shoved it in on Forrest, you could be freerolling right now by taking the other side. Or you could just ride it since Forrest is going to win.

And yes it's worth -200. They're both old, and even though Forrest is not what he was, Baldy's still not in his class. And Baldy isn't nearly as hungry as he was since he's already been paid.

Actually, as long as it was listed as a future wager, you couldn't keep hitting the max as they shifted the line.  If you maxed out at +220, and then they shifted it that week to +160, you're already maxed out until they no longer have the future limits on the wager.

Also, telling you to "go away" is a figure of speech.  I know that you can continue to post your comments even if they are completely baseless.  It's just annoying to read posts where someone is arguing that a line never happened even though there are numerous sources confirming this information.  It was the matter-of-fact way in which you stated that "forrest was never a dog" that discredits your opinions.

Good luck on your Baldomir KO prop, perineum.

Oh, I'm keeping an open mind.  Haven't decided which way I'm going yet.  I might even sit it out.  I'm just trying to find some value, and I don't see it in a Forrest play at -200.  But thanks for wishing me luck.  Good luck to you, too.  It's always nice to win money.  But it's just as important to know when to not make a play.

I like how you never admitted that you were wrong.  Next time you make claims that you know nothing about you might want to be informed a little.

I believe it is called a scalp not a "trade."  Yes, in retrospect I should have gone ahead and bet the max at $250 instead of $100, but I had no idea the odds would end up where they are today.  When you find a number you think is off there is no guarantee that this number is going to change drastically, other bettors may think differently.  I didn't want more than  unit wrapped up in Forrest if the odds didn't change too much.

I am actually surprised to see the number where it is now at -180 to -200 with all the question marks on Forrest's side.  His shoulder is very fragile, plus when you throw in his inactivity at the age of 36 it is not your ideal chalk laying situation.

Isn't it wild how much of a public perception that Vernon Forrest has as being an elite fighter off of the fact that Shane Mosley was made for him.  Yeah he had a great amateur career, but his resume as a pro is pretty weak if it wasn't for Shane.  I guess you could say his next best two wins would be over faded versions of Quartey and Vince Phillips.

I agree.  I was thinking that Forrest would be a good play at around -130, but -200 should be reserved for the plays that you believe are around an 80% certainty.  It might not be a bad idea to just watch that line prior to fight time and hit Baldomir if he reaches +200.  It's interesting how name recognition and reputation dictate so much of the public's behavior.

I think anyone who is betting Baldomir might as well throw there cash in the trash.

As far as Forrest's shoulder... If it held up enough to get a win (albeit controversial) against Quartey, who is a harder puncher and better boxer than Baldy by far, you really believe it's not going to hold up against Baldomir?

The only thing Baldy has is determination.  Unfortunetly for him, I believe Forrest has it equally.  Even a shot Forrest should be able to take out Baldy who is slower, weaker, feather-fisted, moving up in weight, 5" shorter,  2" less reach and half the boxer. 

Good call snippets. These other guys don't really understand the odds:



You make it sound like he's -2000 or something. In your "ideal chalk laying situation" do you really think you'll be getting -200?

What's even funnier:



-200 = 2:1 = 66%. You should betting it when his expected win % is anything over that.

Guess you can't put 2 quotes in one thing or maybe I messed up. You get the point though.

I like to make a profit, and that's why I used the 80% qualifier.  Also, it's impossible to precisely tabulate whether someone has a 60% chance vs. a 70% chance.   I'm saying that if I feel 80% certain, then I feel comfortable betting -200.  I don't see why that's funny at all.  Most boxing bettors would agree with me.

But you should definitely keep posting.  It humors me.