Boxing: Paul Malignaggi vs Amir Khan

Paul Malignaggi (27-3-0) vs Amir Khan (22-1-0)
WBA Light Welterweight Title (12 Rounds)
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY

Wager Type: Proposition
Amount: Risk 6.0 Units to Win 7.5 Units
Bet: Khan Wins By 12 Round Decision +125

Czeck I will be playing the over 11.5 @ -150. I like your play though. I just have a feeling this fight is closer then it ever should be and would rather not be sweating too hard on the judges. I think -150 is a nice price in this spot. Good Luck to you. I think this will hit

I've read in a few places that this fight is in jeopardy because Khan is having visa issues.  He's stuck in Canada right now and can't get into the US.

I heard that too Danno but I think he gets to NYC on Monday. This can't be helping his preparation. The closer the fight gets the more I like Mallinaggi. I think they have seriously underestimated him here and are quite frankly being extremely dismissive. I don't blame Paulie for being angry (this is funny sh!t right here -> https://www.eastsideboxing.com/news.php?p=23772&more=1 ). I mean really what has Khan done to be looking past Mallinaggi the way he is.

Paulie is an idiot, but I would be amazed if he doesnt give Khan a good tough fight. I have play the over 11.5 @-150 and will also play a small saver on Mallinaggi to win on points. I think I will get a run for my money with that bet. Listen Khan SHOULD win (I think the boy has serious talent no doubt) but this hassle with his preparation, hasn't fought anywhere near the level of fighters Paulie has fought, he is clearly underestimating Paulie and add to that he is fighting in New York and America for the first time make -600 look quite frankly disgusting! Khan could easily dominate, he has the talent to do so but too many questions here for me..

They need to get Khan down to Mexico

how is it possibtle to have visa problems like that when you are a well known fighter who is scheduled to fight for a corportation. Can someone not speak up for him and get the shit through

Last night, Lampley said that his visa issues have been ironed out.  The fight will go on.  He was having problems for a few reasons.  He's had some minor legal issues in England, he was recently in Pakistan, and his name is Amir Khan.

That makes sense

U.K. leglity issues + recently in Pakistan + name is Amir =  U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY ALERT

If we apply this theorem to our handicapping methods, I'd say 70% of the time it will work everytime.MG!

Cha-Ching

Malignaggi  +380........................

 

I'd rather be lucky...than good!

 Could you explain how you think it is possible Malignaggi wins? I dont mind the bet, I actually hope more do like you so I can get a lower line on Khan.

Goldfisch I think Khan is a FAR more talented fighter then Paulie. If this fight happened in 2 years time in England it would be a MASSACRE  for Khan. The books have priced this up for Khan -600 and this is a ludacrious price! Yes Khan should win but -600! Are u kidding me! Here are the reasons I think this fight is going to be closer then the books believe..

1) I question Khan's mental toughness. I don't buy into the bullsh!t that all of a sudden Freddie Roach has made this guy invincible. He is under increased pressure to look good on his American debut so that he can sell the bigger fights in future. This extra pressure can lead to mistakes being made. If Paulie can catch Khan early and upset his rythm and gameplan, I think he can actually win this fight on points or certainly go close.

2) Khan has never fought in America before. Now he has to fight an experienced fighter in his own backyard.

3) Who has Khan actually beat? Kotlenick? A guy that looked like Marco Antonio Barerra? My point is he hasn't been in with a fighter as good as Paulie Mallinaggi. Paulie has fought fighters equal or above Khan's level. Right now Khan is no Cotto.

4) It appears to me Khan is totally underestimating Paulie. There is all this hype about Khan coming to America, and Golden boy/Roach/Khan hand picking an easy opponent. They are completely underestimating Mallainaggi here. I think this is Paulie's last chance at the bigtime and I expect him to be seriously motivated, to fight his heart out knowing this is his last shot and in front of his hometown fans.

5) Khan's camp has been not smooth. He has been stuck in Vancouever alot longer then he wanted.

Fisch Khan should win. He is the better fighter and has bucket loads of potential but -600! you have to be kidding me. Its a disgraceful price. He should be -350.

I took the over 11.5 @ -150 a few days back. I think thats a solid bet with good value. Khan on points should be the outcome but I just don't trust the guy. If Khan dominated and KO's Paulie I would not be shocked but my gut is telling me this one is a lot closer then it ever should be.

What Mack said!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I commend you for your points because they are on point.! Who has he beat? Coming into Madison Square Garden? Come on the kid is from NY! The judges will be leaning for him (Paulie) as the place will be rocking for him. This is not Paulie's 1st rodeo, hia KO ability is the question, not his skills. Paulie is no walk in the park for an American debut, and this dumbass is being a tourist of NY. Khan is already caught up in the NY scene. I am more along the lines of thinking Paulie can pull this out in a decision my own personal bank account, and the coin that I have for this year I have the ability to take risk. A smart capper knows this is a risk well worth taking not only for the distance of the fight but for the ML + 380.....little risk huge reward! Paulie does not need this fight Khan does all the pressure is on him! GL

 

from a guy learning from wiseguys!

This is a great spot for value in a Paulie win by decision.  I am hoping my +300 goes up a bit.

Source you can get +600 for Paulie by decision everywhere..

Does it not bother anyone that Paulie doesnt throw his right hand anymore? The hand is so brittle he just taps with it and it doesnt cause fear to anyone. I am not trying to be negative here, but there are many Paulie supporters here.

 Mack and nightlife, I respect your opinions on this and I agree -600 is ridiculous, (which is why I will bet the props) but I honestly with out a doubt believe any bet on Paulie is a waist.

 I think the fact that the fight is in New York doesnt effect anything to be honest. Khan did fight barrera and kotlenik, (which he looked real good against kotlenik!).

 Mack You did have good points, and sorry if I went on a rant, I just think that paulie has no chance.

 

Gold you may very well be right and Khan is a good thing here and Khan blitzes Paulie in 5 rounds. In this fight nothing would surprise me. I know I seem dead against Khan, but he has the potential to be the next pound for pound king. Style wise he would be a tough matchup for Floyd Mayweather believe it or not. When I saw him at the Athens Olympics I told my Dad this kid will be something special. I think he has the fastest jab in world boxing BAR none. The kid has bucket loads of talent and on paper is way to good for Paulie.

I think Khan is more talented then Bradley or Alexander or anyone else in the 140 division. However, the guys chin will stop him from ever being able to truly realise his potential. He can't go 12 rounds with guys as talented like Bradley or Alexander and not get hit. Remember Khan has been floored by 4 guys already!And in my opinion they are all bums!That was in 20 fights!

You can't put muscles on chins. You either have punch resistance or you don't. I don't care how much leg weights u do. He will get caught when he steps up in class and he will go down. If the guy had a chin we would seriously be looking at a P4P king in waiting. I truly believe that.

I don't blame u for not wanting to bet Paulie. Stylewise he is perfect for Khan. But for the reasons I stated above in my previous post -600 is a crazy price.

I have bet the over for -150. I have not invested much. My main bet is Paul Williams/Kevin Mitchell double which comes out as evens. I think Mitchell will win and still think his price is generous (see my writeup). The Khan fight for me has no value whatsoever. Khan should win, yet sweating on -600! no thanks!

Mack, I really like your in depth analysis, I learn alot.

 I heard that Roach has worked specifically on his defense so he doesnt put himself in those positions to get knocked down. His chin is a concern but hopefully he can learn to defend it.

 I agree he can be a threat at 140 cuz of how tall he is and how much pop he has in his gloves. I would say more but I am about to go to bed. We can discuss more than.

Paulie can't KO Khan
Not possible

Mack is right
the price is too high now on Khan

however
Khan should win this fight convincingly one way or another

Amir Khan is a sure bet. Paulie looked good versus Diaz but Diaz was shorter with shorter arms and had a slow jab. Paulie has nothing but a jab and good defense. Paulie's Going up against a guy with better physical tools and the best trainer in the world. From a trainers point of view, if you take away Paulie's jab (with your own jab or counter right) youv'e got NOTHING to worry about. Yea Paulie might be fighting in his hometown, but he's going to be the fighter backing up  all night. SURE BET.

Mofo are you playing the -600!? I think those odds are nuts. See there are some -600 shots you say to yourself yeah thats a sure thing. Andre Ward v Allan Green comes to mind. People are going to see very quickly why Allan Green was not brought into the super 6 from the start. He is completely over matched and quite frankly isn't in Ward's league. That's a -600 bet I would gladly double up on with something but Khan!? Where is the value? Hard to know if he will win on points are get the KO.

I just feel there is NO value here in betting Khan.

Hey Mack Paulie +22 pts handicap -115 (KO is a winner too, I know Pillow Paulie but you never know)!.

I'm looking at this...the over looks good too but the Pts handicap is looking very tempting!

If Paulie can go the distance, I think we can scrape by with a win here (with the +22 pts).

-600 for a unproven fighter with his first fight in the U.S is crazy.

Think about the last 2 fighters who came from Europe (Hatton came to fight Luis Collazo in Boston and he clearly LOST but was given the decision. (Hatton was a big favorite)

Then you have Carl Froch who was getting whipped by Jermaine Taylor and needed a miracle to get a win.

Given the fact Khan was KO'd in 1 round by Prescott, I agree I cannot see anyone laying the chalk with Khan.

I may be playing the +22 (hopefully it moves up but I think it will go down)>!

Good luck to everyone!
               

Calzaghe came over more recently than Hatton, and beat Hopkins.

 

Khan has NOTHING to fear from Paulie.  I think Khan takes him apart.  That being said, I won't lay the chalk.  Maybe parlay with Ngoudjo and get a little less than even money on it.

Danno, Calzaghe was a world champion for 10 years and made over 20 defences against decent oppostion (Kessler, Eubank etc). I think there was 60,000 people in Cardiff for the Kessler fight.

He was 36 when he came over to the States to fight a 43 year old. I really don't think you can mention Khan in the same breath as Calzaghe.

Danno I see your points. Basically Khan is a better version of Paulie. Everything Paulie has, Khan does it better BUT -600 is quite frankly the worst price I have seen for a fight for some time now. It's like the books don't want any action! If Khan looks great I take my hat off to you, but too many variables for me to bet with confidence.

Rich good luck with your play. I don't tempt to take handicap bets but for what its worth I think its a good play.