Boxing: Carl Froch vs Mikkel Kessler

 WBC Super Middleweight Title
         Saturday April, 24th 2010  9PM EST
       MCH Messecenter, Herning, Denmark

Wager: Straight
Carl Froch vs Mikkel Kessler
Mikkel Kessler -150 (8.0 Units)

Great write up cant say I disagree or agree with any of it

I agree. (Great odds BTW)

 Not so fast tlml1899, I don't have the time to finish the write-up currently as I am finishing this weekends match-up between Pavlik vs Martinez. Also, I don't have any props to bet on the Kessler fight so I posted early betting odds on a straight wager and will do a write-up later. This weekend is a different breed of fight. It's speed, angles, movement & adjustments vs hard KO punching and a slow walking you down predator style.

Back to Kessler, he is a better combo puncher and will be able to get his punches of faster . They are both very equal in other catergories. I'll do a complete write up.

ok here is my take on the fight...

3 years ago Kessler would have crushed Froch. I have no doubt about this. Style wise this would not have been a good matchup for Froch and fighting a guy like Kessler in Denmark would have been a step too far for Froch.

Times have changed though. Before the Ward fight I spoke how Kesslers poor opposition and ring inactivity would cost him against a slick counter puncher like Ward. This turned out to be correct. Kessler looked awful that night and I wonder just how much he has left in the tank or just maybe he was not as good as I thought he was. True, Froch and Ward are night and day as fighters style wise and Froch's style should suit Kessler, but I am of the feeling that Kesslers best days maybe numbered and Froch may take this late on.

One thing for sure is that Kessler is in last chance saloon and he knows it. The hometown fighter has won all the fights so far and with Kessler having so much on the Line (he will make the semi's if he wins here as Allan Green will not beat him) he should give a real good account of himself. I expect Kessler to dominate the earlier rounds like Jermaine Taylor did to Froch and he may like Taylor score the early knockdown.

The problem is Kessler has the same kind of doubts Taylor had. Now Kessler may not have stamina issues but when Froch takes his best and keeps coming forward this could have a pyschological effect on Kessler. If Kessler can keep Froch away from him after he builds up a big early lead then Strykers points bet will turn out to be a cracker.

BUT. As tempted as I am to play Kessler on points (which is what I originally recommended, I am going to make a strange bet on the undefeated champ. I am going to play Carl Froch in running after round 5 or 6 (most books offer in running markets). I should get cracking odds on this. At least +500 who knows maybe more. I just have a hunch he will drag Kessler into a war, especially in the late rounds and that his constant pressure will lead to wearing Kessler down and stopping him late...

For the guys that want to follow Strykers bet it could turn out to be a great call. Kessler will not want to lose and if he has still got it he won't lose. I just don't think he still has it.

Nice write-up Mack05 ! All very valid points, and several I was going to mention in my write-up (lol). I want to get to the Pavlik vs Martinez first because there could be good value is Martinez to win by decision +330 or more, or vice-versa. I'm gonna watch several previous fights again, wait for the weigh-in, then make my post for that fight. I think what Martinez said about the fight to a reporter was spot on. He can't stand still and afford to get hit at all, he has to use angles and his speed. More on that later.  Mack05 , did you do a write-up for the Pavlik vs Martinez fight?

Stykor I will be playing small on the over 11.5 rounds with Pavlik v Martinez. I just hate the odds of this fight. I think Pavlik wins myself. I don't think Martinez is a 160 fighter. Remember Pavlik has fought near 175. I just feel the size difference is too big here.

I see a lot of people on this forum don't rate Pavlik too highly but he is very effective at what he does. Still, I like Martinez and he has a style that would give any fighter problems.

The thoughts of playing Pavlik odds against vs Martinez does not appeal. Unless Kelly KO's him spectacularly, I can't see him dominating this fight so backing a fighter at odds against when you can't see him dominate is a nono..I don't think Martinez's odds are big enough for him to have any real value. Some posters think he is great value, I don't see it. Especially as this guy appears to be an unlucky fighter..It would take about Martinez to be 250ish before I would have any interest in playing him. Overall, I think this fight will end up being close and I have a hunch for Pavlik by close (even split) decision.

I don't think either man will get the KO in this one. And if the fight is as close as I think it will be, I would rather not be sweating on the result with some dodgy judging decisions. So Evens the over 11.5 will do just fine by me..Ok its only evens but its the safest most appealing play on the board for me. Good luck with your plays

I totally agree about the size and strength differential. I feel the same about that fight and was seeing if I felt after watching his previous fights again, and if I was going to be wagering, it would be on Martinez to win by Decision (which is currently +300 at several places). He won't have the constant pressure Williams put on him, but he can't afford to get hit and mix it up at all. That's why I'd only go with a prop bet on this fight if betting Martinez cause I only see him winning by decision if he can.

Mack how things change so quickly.. I myself Hated Froch,now find myself in the position like you also.. I think Kessler is over rated he doesn't have it in him for 12 rounds.

Doesn't mean I'm going to back Froch yet either..  +5.5 pts handicap isn't that appealing.. because if this thing goes the distance.. Kessler is getting the nod in his home town.

Hard to go against an undefeated fighter who has tons of confidence yet lacks the good fundamentals of a complete fighter yet somehow always gets the job done.

If I was to take Froch I would take the straight bet.. +145.. tough call.. I used to be Froch's biggest hater, now I find myself in the position of maybe picking him!

Regarding the Martinez fight I don't see +155 being a gift as you said some people feel it is.

As I said in my other post .. IF Martinez was a true 160 pounder, and IF Pavlik was a true 160 pounder.. it would be a different story.

Pavlik is 2 weight classes naturally ABOVE him.

Again I think I've said how I feel about Pavlik I petty much despise the guy and I admire Martinez as a fighter but said all that I still will not make a wager because my heart wants Martinez to win but my boxing brain says Pavlik wins.

So I'm staying away!

Good luck to everyone and enjoy the fight!
                       

nuttyrich: Good post. I totally agree with Pavlik being 2 weight classes above him. Pavlik is not just heavier, he is so much stronger.

I also think Froch has the advantage in this fight.

walktheline: There are some good prop lines for Kessler to win inside the distance (props for Kessler listed below). If you feel that way, this is the way to make money. I rarely encourage prop bets (due to the high vig and difficulty winning), but if you pick your spots you can take a nice score. Just remember to always make sure to get your standard bets in because that is your bread and butter. I learned that betting horses from my uncle, I missed a exacta, trifecta and an exoctic pick 6, and totally neglected a 4-1 horse that I had inside information from the trainer. As a kid at the time, instead of winning $400 betting the horse to win, I lost $100. That lesson stays with me ever since. Good Luck!

Kessler wins inside distance +220
Win (within Round Ranges)
Kessler wins in round 1-3 +1500
Kessler wins in round 4-6 +1100
Kessler wins in round 7-9 +800
Kessler wins in round 10-12 +1250
Kessler wins in round 1-6 +650
Kessler wins in round 7-12 +500
Win (by specific Round)
Kessler wins in round 7 +2200
Kessler wins in round 8 +2200
Kessler wins in round 9 +1800

 

I don't agree with Walktheline. I rarely do. I find I am right more often then not in our debates (that's being kind). I would be VERY surprised if Kessler stops Froch. For all his faults, Froch has a granite chin and amazing heart and guts.

So you think a fighter who is clearly on the decline is going to stop him!?...Based on what exactly?

On a forum where many posters impress me, I really don't rate you in anyway as a capper Walktheline..

I don't agree that Kessler is on the decline, but I do agree with Mack that Kessler will more than likely NOT stop Froch...not in a legitimate fashion anyway.

I have a TITANIC size bet on Kessler. Decline or not(purely psychological), styles make fights, and I see Kessler cruising to a points win. However, I do have an insurance bet on Froch7-12.

Mofo like the play. If Froch wins it will be late. I agree with most guys on here that like Kessler on points, its the safe play in this fight. I respect McNulty and he may be right and Kessler is still the same fighter. I don't agree with him here. I will be playing Froch in running after 5-6. But Mofo really like the way you have thought out your play.

If McNulty is right and he very may well be, then Kessler cruises here and you guys make money. I like and prefer it, when we all agree. But its a forum where we debate so thats not always possible. Sometimes you just play your gut and thats what I am doing here. I think Froch finds a way to win late on...

Good luck to you

I see statements that Kessler is washed up. I'm don't see that. Are people making that statement according to the Ward fight? If so, Ward is a crafty quick fighter and can make many opponents look bad. So, maybe Kessler lost a little steam (which I still don't see), but watching Froch when he fought Taylor it appears Froch is still doesn't have the fundamentals to beat a quality contender.

I don't think Kessler is on the decline. He's simply not as confident. People say Froch is not smart and lacks fundamentals. I completely disagree. If Froch had better speed he'd be a top lb4lb fighter. Froch has good counters, different angles, great power, stamina, and chin. I just feel Kessler has too much speed and straighter punches and that combination makes me feel surpremely confident.

Result: +8.0 Units

Wager: Straight
Carl Froch vs Mikkel Kessler
Mikkel Kessler -150 (8.0 Units)
Final: Mikkel Kessler UD 12
Result: Win +8.0 Units

Fight went exactly as I expected it. Kessler up early and Froch comes on late. I think Froch could have got the KO if he brought Kessler into a war sooner. Rounds 10,11, aand 12 were cracking rounds and the Dane was noticably begining to wilt. Mofo's play was really shrewd and I regret not following him here,..

 Went accordingly, which is nice when you have a large wager!

Congrats :-)

thanks!

For 3 fights so far, it's about +26 Units. The nice thing is that all the fights went exactly as I analyzed and predicted they would. You need plenty of luck as well. I use 100 Unit BankRoll system. So average basketball play would be 1 to 3 units. I usually will risk up to 15% of my BankRoll on Boxing, and only certain fights. I only risked 3 units on Martinez, but won just under 10 units by betting the prop. I hope the bettors following Covers Forum made out well, there are some good handicappers on this site. Keep up the good work guys (and gals), and I will too!