Abraham/Stieglitz II

Thoughts and initial leans?

I think you have to go either on the dog, or pass. 

look man, you must be crazy or something, you keep on betting all of these dogs and you wonder why you have a horrible record, in boxing dogs hit less than 10 percent of the time, not trying to be an a** h*** but you have to be the worst capper that I have ever seen in my life, you make JERSEYBOY look like ace from casino, you are the ulitimate fade. you never pick a winner initially,only when you are chasing your losses do you come up with a win here and their and this is on some friday night fight undercard fight in buluxy mississippi, I am suprised that you do not feel to embarrassed to even post on this site anymore, TO ALL WHO DO NOT KNOW BOXING AND NEED A SURE WINNER, JUST FADE THIS GUY, IT'S ALMOST A SURE THING

New here.... whats good

Anyway, I don't see any real value here either way with those lines.

Abraham being that big of a favorite against any contender at this point in his career concerns me.

Personally, I'm gonna check the props when they come out. Might bet a lil on either a Abraham Ko or decision if the line on them is at least +250ish

my earlier post has nothing to do with this fight in particular as this one will be close and abraham has had a lot of where and tear on his body through out the years, I will not be this one, but I do slighly favor arthur,, the OVER even though it's -400, looks like the best bet on this fight

I agree. Hopefully some more money will come in on Steglitz before the fight. If Arthur comes down to around I might throw him in a parlay, and possibly just betting him straight up.

*comes down to around -250ish

So you go on here and blast some guy for leaning Stieglitz and tell him he's a lose and crazy, bla bla bla,  and you come on with the over being the best bet. The result serves you right for being such a prick.    Just thought I'd visit this forum for the first time in some time and this is the childish crap I have to look at. Guess that's why

 assuming I bet real money, lol, he newby, I have been involved with this sport for 14 years and still am, I have been betting on it for about 12 years and have been very successful, you are 100 percent wrong, it is NOT at all about value, it is about winning each bet you place, not putting money on some longshot and hoping for the best, you pick the guy you think is going to win and you bet him, you will end up being the loser if you just sprinkle your money around for VALUE plays, that is a joke. pick the winner and bet him regardless of the odds, some fights you might not make a lot, but making little is better than sprinkling around and losing,  your thinking eventually I will hit a longshot and make up for what I lost, that is idiotic, bet the guy who you think will win, not some guy because he has good odds, like I mentioned dogs of greater that +250 win less than 10 percent of the time. you will end up in the hole betting for value and not for winners, 

check the guys resume, he picks many more loseres than winners,this is a fact, I did not pull it out of the air,  I also state that I WILL NOT BET  on this fight as it was too dangerous, and since we are talking credentials mine are pretty good on this site, so do your research before you open your mouth, their are a few guys that tail me and I make them money, I help keep this  boxing form going with the help of a few other regulars so shut up jack a**

again to TWINKEY13,  how many times do you see a guy that is -1000 or greater lose, rarely never, ya you gotta put a G on him to win 100, but it is worth it, better than picking the dog because of VALUE and losing, right? what is the value in that? their is none. 

this does not mean I do not bet dogs, because I do, but only if I think actully think they will win, not on some value play because I like the looks of the odds, you will never be up in the long run if you focus on the odds more than the actuall fight itself. the odds should NEVER change your bet EVER, pick the guy who you think will win

I MENTIONED that dogs over OVER +250 are under 10 percent, weird or creepy? I was telling the truth, some just don't not like to hear it, I will say what I feel, YOU ARE THE ONE that mentionjed  previously that people should START TO FADE YOU,... RIGHT? I did nothing but speak the truth, sorry if people do not like it,  but trust me just stop betting dogs all the time, the books put out jucy odds on dogs so they get action, people see what some call "value" (I call it wasting your money) and bet it in hope of a victory, boxing or mma or tennis any individule sports better should forget about the odds, do not even look at them, just bet on the guy who you think will win, it is that simple, betting on individule sports is not a profitable as say footabll, where it is point spead based and you get a 91 percent return, in individule sports it is easy to win at a high percentage but much more diffucult to win large sums of money. in boxing betting the rich will get richer, that is for sure, if you have a bank roll you just hammer guys that are -5000 and stuff like this,  for most, including me(at the currnent time that is) it is diffucult to make money in situations like this, but do not waste your money just because you like the odds, unless you actually think the guy  can win, but situations like this are rare that the dog that big will hit, for the most part in boxing the favorites win,  one dog I will be on though will be austin trout vs alvarez, he is currnely at +200,( I had brokedown the fight on another post) trout is this generations version of winky wright and highly skilled boxer, that is not spectacular to the untrained eye( only the hardcore fans know how good he is), but very effective  is avoided by most, but gets the job done when given the opportinity,trout will take advantage of this opportinity. 

I used to wok at a sports book when I was yonger so I know for a fact that sprinkling on dogs DOES NOT WORK OUT in the long run, trust me, a lot of people have the sprinkle and hope for the best mindset, it WILL not work in the end

How old are you? you always talk about doing this and that working at a sportsbook....were you 12 then? why you blast a guy who loses some bets? He is honest anyways and posts his plays. Who the f**K are you? The guy who called you a prick was right on. You think you know it all cause you get your face punched on daily. I seen you post a ML football bet at 3-1 and lost. You must be a miserable guy to pick on someone for posting losing wagers. Get a grip you deadbeat.

you again ah, go away old man, how old am I? I still in my prime, for posting a losing wager you mention,, he has been picking at about 20 percent for over 2 months, so finally I spoke up about it, you mention me posting a football game and losing, what game are you talking about?  oh and old man I worked at a sports book when I was 20-23 so go away this has nothing to do with you, I was speaking to him and now you are doing the same thing that you are trying to break my balls about,  but that is just because I already buried you in a couple previous debates in the past,  talking about me getting punched in the face all day, well this is what fighters do,, all of us, you are knocking fighters? this is a boxing form, if you do not like the sport what are you doing here? you are a guy that NEVER POSTS anything on this site in terms of picks or opinions on a fight, you simply put your nose into other peoples conversations and take a side,  do you have any thoughts of your own about this sport? because I have never seen you breakdown a fight,  which is what this site if for, what are you even doing here? are you board old man? you simply put your nose into other coversations that are going on and never actually post anything about boxing.. get a life loser

still waiting for the day the BIGPAPA21 actually posts something about boxing on this site, or breaks down a fight, but I forgot, you only come on this site to argue with other posters and never to actually speak about this great sport, what exactly is you true purpose here? this is a site where people come to post plays, breakdown fights, you do neither of these things, why are you here? sometimes it gets into a heated debate between posters, sure, that is life, what is your purpose here?  

I know, your still waiting for that autograph? but are too embarassed to ask for it? just ask nicely and it will be their in a couple weeks.....

soulP....I respect the insite.  But the pattern is wrong /off...IMO

to twinkie13, I am not rich, but I am comfortable, I will give you an example,  I will use wladimir klitschko as an example, I have probly made 5 thousand on him over the last 3 or 4 years, a lot of times he is a very big favorite, but to me over the last few years he has been on a different planet than all other heavyweights,  so I would lay heavy juice on him only to get back a couple hundred, to me this is sure money, it is boxing and anything can happen, but i have bet on all but 1 wladimir fight over the last few years and I have won every bet, like I also said for me boxing is not a huge money maker, not even close to colege football for me,  not even close, but I do not look for boxing to be a huge money maker for me, I just look to make a couple hundred here and couple their,( that is until I get a bigger bank roll)  another example gamboa was a -1000 when he fought salido, I put down 5000 to win 500 and to me this makes sence as salido is very solid but gamboa is on another level,   their are a few fights coming up as well the donaire fight in particular that I have invested heavly on, actually the 2nd largest bet that I have ever made in boxing, I nonito at -250, I am also on trout +200 vs alvarez in a 5 unit play,  but in the end we just have different philosophies when I comes to betting, that is life, I have never sprinkled on a dog because of the odds in my life and never will, I do not let juicy odds sway me to sprinkle, this is rent money for me, why waste even 25 or 50 dollars and if I loose on  one of those big favorite bets one day, that is ok, because I made the bet on the man I though would win and if he does not, that is the way it can go, has not happened to me yet.I only bet what I can afford to loose, ya know, oh and I never parlay in boxing, although I do play 2 game 7 point teasers in college football quite a bit.  

you did mention that I was a shitty money manager and this is my point, while you are thinking about money managing, I am simply taking one bet at a time and picking the guy I think will win and betting him regardless of the in a sport like baseball or basketball money managment is key,when you are making a lot of bets for the most part, in BOXING money managment has NOTHING TO DO WITH IT only if you sprinkle on dogs and lose does money managment become important, trying to make up your loses on long under dogs and then you finally hit one and your even or slightly a head, I do not bet for fun but for rent money, and never waste 1 dollar sprinkling or waste 1 second worrying about money management in boxing betting, MONEY MANAGMENT IN BOXING IS FOR PEOPLE WHO PICK AT 50 TO 60 PERCENT, the way I see it if you can't pick at at least 75 percent in boxing, WHICH IN REALITY IS THE EASIEST SPORT IN THE WORLD TO CAP than you should stop.