8th May - This weekend's fight's

This weekend's boxing is the equivalent of a hangover after the night before. Still though, I am really looking forward to the Kevin Mitchell v Michael Katsidis fight. I would recommend boxing fans to see this fight as this will be a MUST see event and I have a feeling we are going to see one of the fights of the year.

Kevin Mitchell could be anything. He could be the next superstar at 135 or just an over rated guy that hasn't fought anybody yet. To be honest I haven't made up my mind. Michael Katsidis is a serious step up in class for Mitchell and represents a very live danger to Mitchell's ambitions. Katsidis is going to want to make this a war and Mitchell will want to box. The problem with Mitchell is that he can't resist a tear up. I have seen himself get into trouble against boxers that shouldn't even be lacing his boots.    An example of this is when he fought Carl Johanneson who is (was) a journeyman English fighter of fairly limited ability. Johanneson had him in serious trouble in the 6th round and I have seen Mitchell tagged by average fighters and struggle at various stages during these fights.

In his last 2 fights he has looked awesome. But, I for one would question the level of opposition. Yes Bredis Prescott can punch but he is a fighter of very limited ability. Ignacio Mendoza even less so. But, I was impressed how Mitchell avoided fighting Prescott's kind of fight and I made a nice killing @evens on that fight which were very generous odds.

Right now Mitchell is -160 (due to the fact no one really knows if he is ready to take that step up in class) and I for one think that is also pretty generous. I would have Mitchell -250 for this considering, firstly I believe he is ready to make that step up, he is the home fighter (the fight is taking place at his local soccer stadium in East London. Really initimidating place in one of the toughest area's of London), he is a better techical fighter and he has never lost. That doesn't mean Mitchell will definitely win. Katsidis is a far better fighter then Prescott and he will give Mitchell plenty of problems in this one. As I said above, I have seen him get into trouble against far worse boxers then Katsidis and Katsidis can seriously bang and he would love a right old fashioned tear up. Katsidis will catch Mitchell at some stage and it's how Mitchell copes when he gets into trouble, is what will determine the end result of this fight.

Mitchell will have to be at his very best to win this and I honestly believe he will be. There will be some all action rounds that will have the crowd on their feet and their will be others that Mitchell will control by outboxing his opponent. Either way this should be a cracker guys so make sure you see this fight.

Later that night we have Paul Williams vs Kermit Cintron. I like Williams in this, but best odds of -500 really do not appeal. Using a line of form of Sergio Martinez the + 400 (on bet 365 right now) on Kermit Cintron looks very tempting. I wouldn't put anyone off taking the dog here as that is where the real value is. Still though, I can't see Williams losing here (except for a lucky KO) so I will be playing Williams in a double with Mitchell.

So my Plays for the weekend are....

1) Mitchell and Williams to win (pays @ roughly evens)

2) Mitchell to win on points @ +175 (if you like Katsidis in this spot take the KO @ +200, he is NOT winning this on points)..

Good Luck guys and Floyd Money M, thank you again

 

Guys Sorry Mitchell v Katsidis is not until May 15th. My apologies. I will still be taking the plays I mentioned above. Would much rather have Paul Williams in my double then Amir Khan (both who are -500).

I am a fan of Amir Khan, but I could never take those odds on a guy, what that kind of a chin, who is fighting for the first time in the States against a decent fighter in Paulie. I think Books have really priced this up wrong. I see Khan winning on points but I do see this very close and I will be playing on the Khan Split decision here. Either way this is a fight I will have very little involvement in. There is nothing in the line to get excited about. Khan should do enough to win but sweating on -500. I don't think so!

I think Paulie is being over-rated a tad from the Juan Diaz fights.  Khan has trouble with guys who can crack, but that's not Paulie.  Khan, I think, will look good in this fight.  Just my opinion.

Cintron has a puncher's chance, but I like Williams workrate and speed to get him thru here on points or late KO.  Fight is at 54, which should help Williams.  Cintron was just BARELY hanging on in the 10th against Angulo.  Not sure he would have lasted 12.

Mitchell-Kats is a very very interesting fight and your writeup is solid.  Thanks.  I have to think about this one a bit more, but I like what you are saying here for sure.

Ghost cheers mate. Yeah Khan should look good and Paulie don't hit hard, but he has far more bigtime fight experience and that counts for a lot as you know. Khan has been in cotton wool since the Prescott fight and I always worry about fighters like that. I question Khan's chin and I question his heart. Therefore taking the -600 with anything is a total no go for me. I see he wants the winner of the Mayweather v Pacquaio fight IF it happens. I mean thats a joke right there. Manny would KO him before 5 and Floyd dances a merry jig around him for 12 rounds. Although Khan's quick jab could give Floyd a few problems. If Khan can even dream of such a fight, he has to look against Mallinaggi and takes chances and go for the KO. He then has to fight Bradley or Alexander and maybe then his name might be in the mix but I doubt if he ever gets that far.

Ability wise I agree with you ghost. I think Khan is a FAR more gifted and talented fighter and stylewise this appears to be a good matchup for him and probably an easy points win. But fighting for the first time in New York (in America) against a guy who is confident and has boxing skills, is not a fight to invest a lot in at those odds!. I will probably play the Khan on points or the over come fightnight and maybe a small saver on the split decision but very little of my hard earned Floyd Money cash will be going on it.

Mitchell vs Katsidis is going to be awesome! I'm hoping Nuttyrich comes thru with some stream links. I thought Katsidis would lose to Escobedo but Katsidis imposed his will. To beat Katsidis you need to box from the outside (Katsidis' right hand only has power when he chops it at close range). When Katsidis gets inside you need to be prepared to throw hard punches. (Escobedo landed some nice uppercuts but they were'nt thrown hard enough). Katsidis is a hard night of work for any fighter, but I think Mitchell has the skills to box, the athleticism to bang, and the ruggedness to perservere. The lively hometown crowd is key as well for the rough moments.

Datmo  I would be glad to provide links but please remind me, send me an e-mail/PM on here the day before.. so I can post the links being this  fight is on in the afternoon here in the U.S.

Don't worry about links as long as you remind me... the links will be here.. and good luck with your wagers whichever way you go.

                                           

Nutty your a good man  

Two of me favorite things to do in boxing are bet on Manny and bet AGAINST Paulie.. been a pretty successful recipe for me   That being said, I do have a large, large payout on Amir Khan as both straight wagers at -365 and back end of parlays with either Mayweather/Haye/Berto... Gonna be in attendance at the Garden next saturday, any thoughts or leans on Victor Ortiz vs. Nate Campbell??  

Appreciate the help guys

King, firstly I think Khan should win. I just don't trust the guy and think the fight will be closer then it ever should be considering how much more talent Khan has compared to Mallinaggi. I will be taking Khan by decision @ Evens. Not much though.

I don't have a strong feeling on Ortiz v Campbell. I might tail some of the good cappers on this site. I think this is an extremely hard fight to call.

If pushed King I would go with Ortiz. I think Campbell has lost his hunger, but the thought of betting on a guy like Ortiz whose heart I question does not inspire confidence.

Found it interesting that Breidis Prescott is actually on the undercard as well, anyway Roach is saying early KO, I was thinking a late KO similar to how hatton stopped paulie was more likely, either way thanks and gl

Agreed I'd lean Ortiz, Campbell being an aging fighter but he does know how to get it done so tough call...

I'm waiting for 5 dimes to come out with the Pts handicap and props for the two fights mentioned.

I don't even see an O/U for Ortiz/Campbell - I would like the NOT to go the distance  Prop if the price is decent.

Ortiz has no heart, and every boxing fan saw him "quit" and clearly say.. " I'm a young guy I shouldn't have to take shots like that".

Now you have Nate Campbell who looked PORKY his last fight. Personally not sure if Nate has anything left he made a few extra bucks for exposing Diaz.Not sure if Nate can go the distance.. not sure if EITHER man can go the distance for different reasons of course.

My take on the Paulie/Khan fight is either Khan blows him out of the water or this is a WAR of a fight.. possibly fight of the year... yes either a dud or a stud fight. - Maybe the UNDER in this fight.

So I'm waiting for props to come out Khan is now -600 there is no value in that so need to see props first!.

Good luck to everyone and ENJOY!
                          

Mitchell doesn't really strike me as being exceptional, but he's so much better than Katsidis technically that I can't see him losing. Katsidis throws slow wide shots and his power is vastly overrated.

spin I would agree with that assement. At times I think yeah Mitchell could be special and other times I think he is over rated. I think overall he is good enough to win a world title, but I can't ever see him ever making the pound for pound list.  

Here's something I dug up (you need to let it load)

It's round 5-6 Kevin Johnson\Carl Johanneson (this was as at 130 he's now fighting at 135.

 Johnson looked like dirt here, he has one semi decent name on his resume "Prescott"  he wound up being a 4 round fighter if he doesn't land a big punch - he's done.

Other than that Johnson has fought tomato cans.. while Katsidis is no great boxer.. he has improved his last fight was a stinker because he actually "boxed", he has the better resume.

One thing Michael Katsidis has is a good jab and seems very effective against someone like Johnson-

Here's 2 rounds of the fight again please let it load.. and I believe there is no audio- Johnson seemed to be off balance when it was ruled a "slip" but looked more like a forearm to the head and not a punch.

 Here and rounds 5 & 6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWIZdHP_WWY&feature=player_embedded

Kevin Mitchell is his name.

Rich, I alluded to that round 6 in my write-up above. The two fears I have picking Mitchell (who is this Johnson character :-) is that 1) he tends to leave his chin hang out, same way that Ricky Hatton does, which means at times he is not hard to hit. I remember seeing the Carl Johanneson fight live. I like Carl, he is as honest as they come but he is only domestic class let alone European or World class. Yet he took Mitchell nearly all the way in a very close fight, which on paper should never happen. If a guy as limited as Johanneson can make Mitchell fight his kind of fight what can Katsidis do! I think its those doubts as well as they lack of quality opposition give you these attractive odds that are currently on offer for Mitchell.

Take them. Mitchell is great value. He seems to have come on in leaps and bounds from that Johanneson fight. I don't think it will be easy and I think it could be the fight of the year but Mitchell is the side to be on here. If you like Katsidis then take the KO @ +200.

I got a big feeling for Mitchell in this and I am sticking to it. You can get -150 now. Yum Yum. As I learnt from Diaz v Mallinaggi you can't get them all right but as long as we are hitting 75% sure that will do!

  Gl bud

It was late lol! Where the hell did I get Kevin Johnson!

Good luck on your wagers!
               

Mack it was late meant Mitchell.. was super tired didn't even end my post with my official :-)

I personally wouldn't bet this fight as on paper is seems like a nice slug fest to watch.

Being the fight is in London.. seems like Katsidis can only win by KO.

I don't see any value unless someone like you said takes Katsidis by ko,. (assuming someone likes Katsidis in this fight).

I see this as a very good fight to watch.. Mitchell has everything to lose in this fight (will make or break his career). Katsidis  has fought top level competition and had his chance and came up short a few times.

Good luck to everyone betting this fight!-

                               

I'll have some inside info on Ortiz in the next few days. Got a guy on CO. who has ties to him.

Pounded me some Ortiz @ -115.

Anybody have thoughts on Gavern/Q? Rare immediate rematch. Gavern won despite a point deduction and is the dog again plus Quezada loses the home town advantage.

I'm hearing Quezada pulled out of the fight
fight is off

well I take the Williams win but I was far from convinced. This gives me evens now on Mitchell next weekend..Let's do it Kev!