1st week of August fights: WNF's, FNF's, ShoBox & a PPV:

As to WNF's......you know what Fbs? I've D near come full-circle on this one. (& I'm just seeing the odds, which surprise me a bit, I thought Bobo might be -200, or higher)

I've seen both. Bobo is pretty fast, pretty quick of both Hands & Feet; which gives him a better than average defense, & he's a Lefty, you know how much I dig that. So I do like what I've seen outta Bobo coming in. However.....I was set to jump Bobo, but he's at a real Experience disadvantage here, likewise Resume`, he'll be the Visitor, & he's almost gonna have to win via Decision. (only sports a 12% KO ratio)

AD has homecourt, the Voltage edge, & a pretty solid Chin. But most of all Davis is something of a volume puncher-stalker, that might very well be pleasing to local Judges. I was set to play Bobo on Sunday at a 1st glance, but now not so much. Far out that both guys cut 5 lbs to Featherweight. That will only amplify the Power edge that AD has in my book. I want Bobo or AD by Decision, or possibly an UP on the total. HTH's & GL w/ your play.

GLA!
bigeiii

I took Whitfield in the opener (w/ some tennis chalk). Not a lotta Power, kinda a Bobo type guy, but his opponent has been TKO'ed 4 straight times, is by all standards the little guy, & only has 1 win in his life outside of Columbia. Gonna throw each side of the Main-Event in w/ R.Whit, as Decision winners, just trying to hit one.

I also find it conspicuous that Diaz ITD pays more than Diaz via Decision. & Diaz is not exactly a career HR hitter.

GLA!
bigeiii

Any1 know 4sure when WNF's will actually be televised?

This says 10pm. (as does directv)

This says 9pm.

This says 8:30pm:

What's the real Ring time here?
TIA if you can.

GLA!
bigeiii

Bigeiii, my TV schedule says 8:30 to 10:00.

Ok Fbs & thx, I'll just set my VCR for 8:30, JIC, & try to stop working & look in at that time. Though I kinda dig these later staring WNF/FNF cards. Just like I really enjoy ShoBox kicking off at 11pm. Good late evening times.

What are you doing (or not doing) w/ WNF's BTW?


bigeiii

All plays and units wagered posted
2006 Results (March-July): +19.2 units (+$1,920)
Last Week: +1.67 units
2007 to date: +9.74 units (+$974)

Finalized my plays for tonight.

WNF
.50 of a unit over 7.5 rounds (-145) in Whitfield-Jimenez
.75 of a unit on Bobo (+120) vs Davis
.50 of a unit on Bobo by 12 round decision (+151)

.50 of a unit 3 fight parlay to win 1.01
Over 9.5 rounds (-400) in Bobo-Davis
Marquez inside the distance (-154) vs Vazquez
Diaz +8.5 points handicap (-215) vs Morales

1st 2 fights of my 8 fight for kicks parlay happen this week
.50 of a unit to win 15.98
Marquez-Vazquez under 9.5 rounds (-165)
Caballero (-750) vs Lacierva
Torres (+140) vs Holt
Cintron (-1050) vs Feliciano
Guerrero (-120) vs Juarez
Ouma-Mora over 9.5 rounds (-250)
Brahmer (-145) vs Veit
Haye-Mormeck under 10.5 rounds (-170)

I am ignoring the ESPN local fave trend against my better judgment.  I have seen Davis fight twice against Koba & Guzman, and I was less than impressed.  Yeah, he had a decent amateur background, but he doesn't appear to have any natural talent besides pressing the action; everything seems so forced.  I even remember reading an article a while back with a quote from Shields saying that he is a hard worker, but he has to work hard to overcome his skill set.  I have never seen Bobo fight, but if he has the boxing ability that his record and reads suggest I feel like he could box Davis's ears off much like Koba did from the southpaw stance when he wasn't holding.  Prize Fight promotions promotes both guys and I think they probably see more money to be made in Bobo then Davis.

"Prize Fight promotions promotes both guys and I think they probably see more money to be made in Bobo then Davis." -Fbs-

Yah; I kinda get that feel as well; easier more attractive to advance a perfect fighter who is pretty confident, maybe even a little cocky, that would be Bobo. Does the cut to Feather help/hurt either one to you Fbs?

GLA!
bigeiii

I think that Bobo had to have an easier time making the weight being that he fought at 127 a year ago and never really has strayed north of 130, plus it is usually easier to cut weight when you're younger.  I have to think that Davis had a tough time making a weight where he has never fought professionally at the age of 35.  Plus, he has even fought in the mid 130's in some of his stay busy bouts over the last couple of years.  Both guys probably get a little bit of a power boost with the drop, but neither really has much pop anyway.  Davis seems to smother his punches and even though he is a pressure fighter he doesn't have much power.  Bobo of course is not much of a puncher at all evident by his 2 KOs.  I think the cut in weight probably favors Bobo more as I think it had to be a struggle for Davis to get there.

This makes me feel a lot better, Fullbrights!  I put 1.37 units to win 2 units on Bobo when the line was at +145 on Bodog last night.  Nice to see it coming down all day!

I agry Fbs. Added 1/10th on Bobo via the Distance.

GLA!
bigeiii

I kicking myself for taking the over in the Whitfield fight after the 1st.  Jimenez is looking rough.

LOL, yep.  How Jimenez went 5 rounds with Vic Darchinyan and 4 with Segura, two very big punchers is beyond me.  I thought against the lighter hitting Whitfield who had only stopped one opponent with a winning record he would be there when the final bell rang.  I feel pretty stupid about now.

.50 of a unit over 7.5 rounds (-145) in Whitfield-Jimenez


Let's go Bobo, that might have been my weakest play of the year.

And it doesn't look good for Bobo either, Davis isn't showing any ill effects of the drop in weight.

BoBo is done..

Man, that's the last time I take a fighter who nobody's ever seen.  That under would've been a great play if there had been any hint that Davis would totally outclass him.  Shit.

Wowzas, I never expected that result tonight, not that a Davis win was that far fetched, but I never thought we would see the fight end in the 5th tonight.  The odds makers are loving everyone who laid that -400 on the over or bunched it into a parlay like myself.

.75 of a unit on Bobo (+120) vs Davis
.50 of a unit on Bobo by 12 round decision (+151)
.50 of a unit 3 fight parlay to win 1.01
Over 9.5 rounds (-400) in Bobo-Davis
Marquez inside the distance (-154) vs Vazquez
Diaz +8.5 points handicap (-215) vs Morales


Not the ideal start to the week, almost comical, hope this isn't a sign of things to come.

 

Bobo is complete garbage. I don't know how he ever made it this far.

Hope you guys have better luck later in the week!!

Thx BOXEO. I took a 3/10ths of a unit Parlay bath, to get two 1/10th Parlays thru, as I just stuck w/ Whity, & then hit n0t Bobo ITD, as I was sure Bobo could not KO AD.

Whity was, well, I'm not sure??? As JJ really looked like he badly did not wanna be in there. That had a bit of an unnerving element to it to me. He was skared looking, kinda looking like he was making sure he stuck around long enough, if you know what I mean. He wanted no part of Whitfield, & prolly does not need to be licensed for much longer. That's the side of Boxing that un-nerves me a bit. Dudes still in there, trying to make a buck, when their mind or body or both can no longer be in it. I'm not sure what that said about Whity? Tough to draw a conclusion based on that lowly of an opposition level.

That's 2 main-events on WNF's in a row I should have trusted myself a little more. I got luck on the Round Prop being canceled last week (12 not 10). 2nite? Not so much. Not a good closer.

Bobo seemed real uncomfortable on some of those Body shots he was taking. I did not see Bobo holding as much as the Ref' did, I'm not sure I'da ruled both a KD? But that was academic in the end. AD won & was the better man 2nite. AD looks like this is about his peak to me, a Regional kinda Titlest to me. But that's no bad thing. Props to any AD backers out there.

Need to get back on track this Friday. On course to drop about .15 units right now, as the other Parlays should close on tennis chalk.


bigeiii

Bigeiii: How did I know that you would claim some high odds parlay winner after the fact?

That was not the same Davis that I saw look retarded against the southpaw boxer Koba.  This Davis was stronger at 126 lbs and it seemed like he was more technically sound, plus Bobo was garbage and seemed to freeze.  Why would a pure boxer rely on hand speed and not use any movement?  Tough night, feel like Bobo the clown, but moving on to an action filled weekend.

Added a 3 fight parlay.....

1 unit to win .78 of a unit
Diaz +17.5 points handicap vs Morales (-495)
Caballero (-750) vs Lacierva
Marquez (-330) vs Vazquez

Interesting opening Pascal line, I DNK that Pascal would be that high of a fave. Though I do view Pascal as the right side here. Kinda like JMLopez as well.

GLA!
bigeiii

Your kidding me Bigeiii, you like Lopez to win?  I think most would, he is a 13-1 favorite for a reason.

Yeah, I didn't think Pascal would open at 7-1 either.  Logic says with the homecourt, athleticism edge, and the inactivity for Ikeke he is the probable winner, but I am going to have to make a semi throwaway bet on Ikeke with his freakish size at those odds.  Isn't it wild that when Ikeke went to Germany to fight Abraham the fight was basically a pick'em and now we have this in his trip to Canada to fight Pascal; I remember that I bet Abraham at -115. 

Yeah, Ikeke has been off 20 months since his first KO loss to Abraham, but he was absolutely killing himself at that point to make 160 lbs with his 6 4'' frame.  I talk to a guy occasionally that is kind of a gym rat out in LA and he was saying before that fight that he didn't see how Ikeke was going to make weight and then told me afterwards that Ikeke didn't have any food intake whatsoever for like 4-5 days leading up to the weigh-in once they got to Germany.  Ring rust could be a problem, but Ikeke will be in shape even on two week notice as he is always working in the gym and sparring at Wild Card even without fights on the horizon.  No doubt Pascal's speed will cause problems, but Ikeke's height and reach should be an obstacle with the above average jab he has.  Even in beating that bum Cruz last time out Pascal was hit cleanly with some solid shots.


.50 of a unit on Ikeke (+525) vs Pascal

H I don't know what I like, the D odds won't open Fbs. I'm pulling teeth to find everyone all in one place for Friday, but tomorrow should remedy that. I hope.

I kinda do follow your size, & higher weight-class edges to Ikeke. I agry on that. My take on Ikeke is will his lead-left-jab get there often enough & hard enough (vs. the smaller/faster Pascal) to help Ikeke find the Distance he needs to win later on in the nite? It's a pretty decent jab at that. Keep the 5`` shorter Pascal at distance, frustrate him, then pick-him apart later on, as you get his in-coming timing down a bit. The nick-name edge must go to Ikeke as well.

JP kinda reminds me of SSM a bit. Athletic (old Hockey & Soccer star), same kinda build. Pascal is the defending regional belt holder, defending on his home-turf. That has me wondering if Ikeke needs a stoppage to win up there? We've seen the home-field guy do very well of late on his ESPN2 TV turf.

GLA!
bigeiii

I like KJ on the ShoBox headliner, but the form-guide seems to suggest that the wrong guy might favored for the opener. Though neither EH or TS impresses me much, so I stayed out of that for now, I'll just watch. Both Ikeke Outcome Props pay a very handsome 10:1 or better. Some legit value there. So I tried Ikeke by Decision. & I have Pascal in w/ the following chalk: Chavez Jr., KJ, JML, C2 & 1 CFL play. Then I did the same, but added Diaz for a nice kicker.

GLA!
bigeiii

Ikeke gained 8 lbs. (moving up 1 weight-class of course), but is still lighter to JP by 2 lbs. I'm kinda hoping that means Ikeke is taking well to this new Weight, but he did short this camp a bit subbing for Echols. 6`` Reach edge to Ikeke as well.

Also of note, Willis cut 10 lbs prepping for KJ, KJ himself 13 lbs. & is at a career low!


GLA!
bigeiii

Fbs: You seeing these weight (Ikeke, & the ShoBox Heavies)? You got any takes on who(m) that help or hurt please?

GLA!
bigeiii