12/18 Bernard Hopkins vs. Jean Pascal

IMO Bernard Hopkins at +225 is the best value you will ever see in a long time. I know Bernard Hopkins is an old old man but we all know he's crafty/boring and knows all the tricks of the trade.

Lets see the last time he was an underdog was vs. Pavlik. What did he do to Pavlik? He gave him the boxing lesson of his life. B-Hop was a significant underdog in that fight. The time before that he was a underdog vs Antonio Tarver. Everyone thought Hopkins was nuts to jump straight from middleweight to light heavyweight. What did Hopkins do? He beat up Tarver for 12 rounds even scoring a knockdown on the bigger man.

His next opponent, Pascal, is a much different fighter than Pavlik and Tarver. He has very fast hands and starts out pretty fast. His only loss was to Froch who we all know has very slow hands. What Froch did was bully him and roughed him up. It threw him off his game. Hopkins will try to rough up Pascal and I do see Pascal doing well the first few rounds but as the fight goes on Hopkins will pull away and take the decision.

I'm not saying put all your money on Hopkins. I just see a lot of value in taking Hopkins +225.

Happy Thanksgiving and hope everyone makes some money for the rest of the year.

Oh yeah the only thing that really concerns me is that the fight is in Pascal's hometown...but I think Hopkins can win this pretty clearly that even the judges can't rob him.

B-Hop is one of the cleverest fighters about and over the years I have made alot of money on betting on b-hop as an underdog. I had him against Calzaghe and I have seen that fight over 40 times and I score it 114-113 to Hopkins everytime. I think this fight will be very close, so I would not try convince you to take underdog here.

However getting a decision in Canada is historically very difficult. Pavlik to me was the biggest hype job of the 00's. I fell for it once or twice (I took him against Maravilla). But you can't compare Pascal to Pavlik. Pascal is one of the best pure athletes in the sport today. He will be the busier fighter and while I expect Hopkins to have some success counter punching, I think Pascal's athleticism will give Hopkins problems. If you remember the Calzaghe fight, B-Hop tired terribly after 9 rounds with the constant pressure Calzaghe was applying. Now Pascal will be apllying a different kind of pressure, but B-Hop will eventually feel the pace of the fight that I can assure you. I think this will be a very close competitive fight, therefore I can't see how B-Hop gets a decision in Canada. I will be playing the over AND Pascal on points. I believe styles make fights and I have a feeling this will be a total snoozer, with Pascal eeking out a very close conterversial decision.

Cannot see Bhop winning this fight in Canada..

I know Pascal and Pavlik are nothing a like but what Froch did to Pascal leads me to believe Hopkins has a real shot of winning this. I just think the line is really odd and theres lots of value in it.

I don't think you can compare.Pascal was fighting away from home and was a very raw fighter who had never fought at that level. That fight with Froch brought him on a ton and if they rematched now Pascal wins easy...

Frank take a look at this clip. I truly believe Hopkins did most of the clean work in this fight and beat Joe Calzaghe. There are parts of the clip  (and part 2). I agree with some parts and some I do not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyz2cws8LBE&feature=player_embedded#!

Because Hopkins fights can be very untidy ala Calzaghe (I expect this fight to be extremely untidy) you can see how a pro crowd to one fighter can effect the judging. Look back at Pascal v Dawson. The crowd went nuts even when he missed. It will be VERY hard for B-Hop to decision Pascal in Canada and can you really see Pascal getting Ko'd by B-Hop?. If this fight was in Vegas I would take B-Hop for sure. It will be close and therefore Pascal as long as he doesn't get KO'd (and we know he has a heck of a chin) wins this..

I don't think Hopkins will KO Pascal..I don't even remember the last time Hopkins got a KO was it trinidad? lol. Yeah I do believe the judges can ruin the fight but I just feel like Hopkins can score a decisive decision. I definitely think Calzaghe is better than Pascal though. But I guess all that really matters is how the judges will score the fight in Canada. BOL in your plays.

 I just see too much value for me not to make a wager on the Fart

Hopkins +225

and perhaps I'll play the over as I don't see a KO happening

You didn't get my point Frank. Pascal is no Calzaghe and never will be. The point I was making is the effect of a passionate crowd on the judging of a close fight. No way in hell Hopkins wins this fight decisively...

I get your point. I do take into consideration the judging/crowd can factor into the fight but I rather pick who I believe will win rather then pick based on crowd/judges.

Which usually is the correct way to look at fights. However, his point is very valid. Do you remember Funeka vs Guzman in their first fight? Funeka really might have won EVERY SINGLE ROUND in that fight but they handed him a draw.

That fight was in the Pepsi Coliseum in Quebec, the same place Hopkins and Pascal will fight. Unless Bernard gets the KO, he is hopeless if Pascal actually makes it to the ring.

Alot of fighters have 'won' a fight and not got the decision for various reasons..B-Hop is 45 and has to go to Canada against a very athletic opponent and a partizan crowd. I think u are throwing money away..

Yeah I do remember the Funeka fight. That was pretty bad.

Sometimes betting on the underdog is "throwing money away". I'm going to stick with my bet..I never said I was betting the house on it. I just see a lot of value in the bet. If this were a -200 Bernard Hopkins play then yeah maybe I'm making a terrible play. But I'm willing to play it at +220 regardless of where they are fighting.

GL

Just take both guys to win by decision and you will come out ahead.  This thing is goin all 12 for sure.

If BHop is +225 outright he will be about +400 by dec, which is really juicy.  Pascal will probably be about +200 by dec.

pascal is -250 to win , we all expect him to by decision
how he can be +200 by decision???
it should be -140 at best by decision pascal

Correct.  Pascal by decision will not be close to +200.  Never. 

Pascal was -310 not too long ago. Now he's -240. DAMN! Somebody must be putting big money on Hopkins.

that would be me

Decision is the way to go IMHO - nobody's getting knocked out, although strange things can happen. I just think Hopkins will be smart enough, and good enough, to dictate the pace and while he may not win, the fight will end in a decision.

Hedging Pascal by DEC +100 with BHop by DEC at +360.

This is clearly gonna be a Pascal decision. EAAASY MONEY

Hops is too old, and didnt look good vs Roy or the bum he fought before Roy.. Pas fought his heart out vs Chad who is arguably the best boxer active right now. Chad would embarrass Bhop..

The fight itself is gonna be a snoozer. Bhop will take NO risk at all.
Pascal will be the faster more active and busier fighter winning most of the unwatchable boring rounds..

Bank it.. Ive been on fire lately. My only loss in a while was the Pwill fiasco

Damn Hopkins down to +185 on my book now

Confrontation at press conference

I would normally say this crap is staged, but it's not a PPV fight and the venue is already sold out so I would probably say this was legitimate tension.

I don't think Hopkins is scared of Pascal one bit, either.