The Houston Astros are like the bad guy in a horror movie: they just won’t die. Houston survived elimination again yesterday after Carlos Correa’s walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in Game 5 of the ALCS.
Now, the pressure is on the Rays to get the job done Friday, or face a winner-take-all Game 7. The Rays are betting favorites as they hand the ball to Blake Snell in hopes of finishing off the series.
We break down the baseball odds with our best Astros vs. Rays picks and predictions for Game 6 on Friday, October 16 (6:07 p.m. ET).
Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros betting preview
MLB Playoff Series Prices
Rays: -425
Astros: +325
Starting Pitchers
Framber Valdez LHP (2-1, 2.00 ERA) vs Blake Snell LHP (2-1, 2.87 ERA)
Valdez has been an innings eater for the Astros all season, and they’ll hope he can do it again after all the arms they had to use in Game 5. Valdez has pitched well in the postseason with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP in three starts, but he struggled with his control a bit in Game 1 of the ALCS, issuing four free passes to the Rays.
Snell has also been solid this postseason, pitching to a 2.87 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. The lefty limited the Astros to just one run over five innings in Game 1, but had to work himself out of several jams, allowing six hits and two walks. The Rays will need him to be better if they want to close out the series, which the former Cy Young Award winner is more than capable of doing.
Weather
Honestly, it is starting to make me feel bad to have to describe the beautiful weather in San Diego every day. The forecast is shockingly calling for sunny skies with temperatures in the 80s. There is expected to be a nine mph wind gusting in from left. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Total Bases Prop Pick
Randy Arozarena is better than Babe Ruth. Full stop. Jokes aside, this play shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The guy has been incredible this postseason, hitting yet another home run last night, bringing him to six in the playoffs. His batting average did dip a bit, now sitting at .415, but the Rays’ outfielder is now two hits away from breaking Derek Jeter’s record for most hits in the postseason by a rookie.
Arozarena now has two or more total bases in 10 of his 12 postseason games this year, so I don’t understand why we keep getting plus money on this prop. I’m going to keep betting this until he clearly cools down, or the Rays aren’t playing postseason baseball anymore.
PREDICTION: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128)
Total Bet
Game 6 will be a pitching rematch from Game 1, which the Rays won by a score of 2-1, and the series has followed that trend the entire time with the Under going a perfect 5-0 through the first five games. We have seen a combined total of 6.0 runs per game in the ALCS and we are still getting a total of 8.0 in Game 6.
So, obviously pitching has been the name of the game all series, particularly the bullpens pitching, with Rays’ relievers owning a 2.92 ERA this postseason, while the Astros are just behind at 2.95. With the Astros not hitting for a great average with runners in scoring position and the Rays just not hitting for a great average in general, it’s hard not to think Game 6 won’t be another high-intensity, low-scoring battle.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-115)
Rays vs Astros betting card
- Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+128)
- Under 8 (-115)
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